Ill Conceived GOOG Earnings Trade

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Just fitting the histogram over the last 12 cycles.
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Post your own fill if you've got something better. I'm guessing this way to trading has a very small positive edge. Hence the <1% position.
 
INTC new lows last couple of earnings. Down at least 5% last 10/12 earnings. Market's offering 3:1 odds that it doesn't happen again. OK.
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