If you were long 5x leveraged on ES, and today the market is up today...

[shortie]

1) in the beginning of the week the job report was really hyped = smelt like sell the news kind of thing
2) in the middle of the week ADP dampened the expectations, GS lowered estimates = less hype, less likely sell the news
3) the question now: if the market ends the week where it is now (slightly positive) and the expectations for the job report are reasonable, may a surprising number like +300-400K really catapult this market on Mon?

so, i am guessing:
<100K = dumping hard
~150-200K = slight sell-off
250-300K = slightly up
~300-400K = runaway gap-up

 

[noddyboy]

I am holding my longs. Thanks guys, have a good weekend.

 

[dtrader98]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Again, I voted reducing, not eliminating, longs.

Exposure is the enemy, not direction or momentum.

I've been watching your posts for some time.
I have to say, you are one of the sharpest moderators I've seen around these parts.

 

[4EXJOE]

Quote from shortie:

1) in the beginning of the week the job report was really hyped = smelt like sell the news kind of thing
2) in the middle of the week ADP dampened the expectations, GS lowered estimates = less hype, less likely sell the news
3) the question now: if the market ends the week where it is now (slightly positive) and the expectations for the job report are reasonable, may a surprising number like +300-400K really catapult this market on Mon?

so, i am guessing:
<100K = dumping hard
~150-200K = slight sell-off
250-300K = slightly up
~300-400K = runaway gap-up

The whole thing seems too rosy to me.... so either...

The NFP number comes in better than expectations....

but,

futures sell off over the weekend as global inflation rears its ugly head in the form of $90 oil..

OR

the number just stinks and we tank.

Trying to eke out extra gains from these levels vs. the potential risk is a no brainer for me. I dumped my stock holdings at noon.

** edit**

Don't forget that a lot of these jobs (around 70K I think) is from hiring for the census. So its a BS number to begin with

 

[ammo]

i would sell when we meet resistance and this looks awfully close

 

[kxvid]

Its an april fools rally. I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

[Hello]

Quote from noddyboy:

what would you do?

I tend to add to winners as opposed to adding to losers(unless i am adding to a loser at a level of support/resistance), generally i only add to a position as it goes for me then i trail a stop, when i pick up on something which is in a mode that keeps grinding up and up and up i always make sure it is a down tick which takes me out of a position i will never set a specific price target unless it is at resistance i might take off half.

My answer to the question would be if it starts ticking down i would bail.

 

[increasenow]

Quote from 4EXJOE:

futures sell off over the weekend as global inflation rears its ugly head in the form of $90 oil

obviously markets no longer are moved by Oil price...get an SP500 overlay chart with Oil futures...Oil no longer makes an impact on equity markets..

 

[F112358]

Buy more of course. Sadly this was not an option on the poll.

 

[PocketChange]

Agreed, there is something oh so sweet about gambling profits.
Pyramiding locks a minimum profit level and catching a trend and stacking up size does wonders for your mind set.

Quote from F112358:

Buy more of course. Sadly this was not an option on the poll.