If you want to fail as a trader, study TA
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As you look at the three main moves of the depression and compare them to 1929, you get to see the pattern similarity.
The first move down was following a "climax run" that ended an era. WJO'N in HTMMIS explains a climax run as the LAST run up on the LTL with some VE's going into th price peak. The very slow to catch on are getting in very late and probably not going to profit from the climax run.
More background on the ends of era's. For this one the June/July 06 period recorded just when the financial industry became unglued. People falling behind in mortgage payments flows like a sinusoid on a horizontal carrier. An eb and flow characterisitc so to speak. This pattern decoupled at the time mentioned by demonstrating the unique characteristic of "accelerationg" through the TOP of this envelope.
Between JUN 06 and the end of the climax run, Most of the financial industry abandoned integrity as part of policy. That continues to this day.
Those who "played" '87 used the rally attempt analysis technique very successfully then. There were four consecutive failures before having to be liquid occurred. A search will provide you with our record. The recovery beginning was also put on the record.
Back to now. After the first move a Bull retrace of the Depression occurred. This was going from point 2 to point 3 of the depression.
We are now "after point 3" and "post" the Bull retrace.
So let me mention the differentiation of retraces and reversals. A retrace is the second move of a trend and a reversal is the beginnning of a new trend at the FTT of the prior trend (the beginning of overlap. This Depression reversal is 10 to 12 years out.
In the Tucson IBDMeetup meetings camtasias, this Depression was called in 2006. I razor bladed out some pages of Tharp as illustrations of all the US Bull and Bear markets as background.
So it is incombant on all persons who are building wealth to have a context and to know how to "read" the global culture economically and econometrically. Those with lesser knowledge, skills and "reading" ability know by now that they are no longer building wealth. They have really bad news coming and it will be delivered to them in a lagging mannner as usual.
In any trend after point 3, there are several happenings that come along on the way to the end of the trend and just before that the trends overlap.
On the next faster fractal than the Depression fractal trend, the are three moves also, all after point 3 of the Depression.
A lot of talking heads and politicians and policy makers speak about a "double dip", meaning a second dip. The may not notice that point 3 was less than point 1 in this depression.
My views are in the minority, always, simply because of the "truism" that the monority always controls. It is more that it is just that few people are the correct people and most others are in the HOPE part of the spectrum.
we are now after point 3 of the depression and we are in the vicinity of point 3 of the next faster fractal worth noting.
Say we pass this faster fractal point 3. How will the power stucture behave? That is, we have two "past point 3' concurrent patterns unfolding.
On 06MAY10 the world found out that large regulated outfits abrigate their responsibilities in favor of preserving capital at all costs. Regulators and legislators found out that those they enforce and those they accept lobbying cash from do no play by the tules nor do they exhibit traditional integrity. There was a real taste of market's not having the normal liquidity provided by the priviledged and formerly presumed to be responsible.
For expert traders, immunity always exists.
This small minority selects itself and does what is required for making the high velocity money the market is offering. Lets review the upcoming requirements for those self selected players.
Basically, there is an order of events and daily the order is carried over on a degapped basis. The faster fractals are used as building blocks for the slower fractals. This provides a nested fractal integrity.
The slower "context" fractals are surrounding these faster trading fractals. The context is "no financial industry integrity" and big players take regulatory fines instead of honoring their leagally bound duties.
Technically this translates to events on the Left Trend Line instead of the Right trend Line.
Experts HAVE to be able to deal with Volatility Expansion, VE's not being "handled", M1's and M2's and accelerated narrower containers.
In the recent TA doesn't work thread I pointed out the way a person "see's" a succession of VE's leading to a last VE and the subsequent "wash reversal" that is required.
Trading is a place where BS has short legs. Most people kid themselves and do character assassination to "cover" their "ignorance" or flawed "belief" system. Big money just "crapped out" on 06MAY10 and now everyone knows it. Businessweek Bloomberg posted the BS explanation they had and at the same time used arrows to post the PATTERN of PEP and it applications. You can see the R2R 2B 2R across the page.
We are in a period where there are going to be VE's on fractals in a depression.
This means the LTL's are going to be crossed over going from right to left.
Any market movement from right to left in a depression fractal setting is a DOMINANT MOVEMENT. DOMINANT MOVEMENT TAKES PLACE ON INCREASING VOLUME.
A good and clear axample was the cascading that occurred in late FEB a couple of years back. For those who wish, you can hear my narration live and the associated stock and commodities trading by the individuals in the trading room.
Lets talk through cascading when price is going from right to left through a "short" LTL of a container.
Up until 06MAY10 the financial industry did deal regularly in cascading. "Regularly" means according to the enforcement and heritage of the integrity of the financial industry. That has ended in the US.
On the many leading indicators of price you can "read" the markets. Tape reading is a old as the hills and it is a seasoned practice. As we saw on 06MAY10 the MM's declined to participate and that thinned out the market. This will happen again in the future as the Left Trend Lines are breached.
You can look at several places to see this arriving on the scene. My response to Redneck in the TA doesn't work BS thread. Gave you the math for looking at smart money leading cash relative to the premium. Ordinarily, the 1 sigma is as I described. This leading indicator also measures multiple sigma events as you would imagine. Here in a Depression, it is better to talk in absolute values. 20 is a real move 4 to 5 sigma. When you get to 100 plus, the market has no integrity as we have seen. Since a Depression is a "short", a negative number is converted to the "absolute value.
Money is being made by experts so fast it is more than the usual extreme unbelievability.
All markets telegraph to experts. That is, experts do NOT deal in the Present. Tape reading, etc would seem to be in the Present and impossible to do in the very near future. But when an expert is "reading", he is doing it in the very near future by looking at, as yet, untraded orders which are available re cash and futures indexes. Since many games are played with this information by those who have accounts that affort them the opportunity, it is important to understand the "crap out" of game playing as it proceeds from units to tens to hundreds.
MM's will be sidelining and as this happens.
In the era of telephones, a role reversal occurred during cascading. getting training wheels in those days was fun. There were no emini's and runing 900 points per contract (DJXX) in three consecutive cascades was done by simply keeping the phone available or open during the cascade turns.
So the expert has to know how to be on the correct trading fractal and use the leading tools of the market.
For me, it is a triangle of S/S, DOM and two OTR's. One spread and three volume charts.
In cascading there is no wall. there is no one providing liquidity. you can see the sequence of failure go through the orders of magnitude from smallest to larger. When the larger stops failing a directional limit is being approached.
For me, I like the understanding that the players are being replaced as this Depression unfolds. There has never been a point in history where abandoning integrity has ever been the path to success. There is "no way" a person can cheat the market and win. In the next few years we get to see the musical chairs take place.
As time permits, we will step up our efforts to document this period on charts and for different markets going from the US to Asia to Europe on a daily basis. Bay having the ES, k200 and DAX running through this pt 3 to FTT period of the Depression we can see how the money velocity of making money picks up.
One of the things we will do is point out the "buying power" of one ES contract vis a vis taking over mortgages in foreclosure. We can use selected global regions and I will limit the cash flowing to 50% of net profits per month. Right now it is looking like 25 foreclosure additions per month. Since banks are not maintaining foreclosed properties any longer the ratio will be picking up, I believe.
i wondering if the expert is just spouting this stuff
b.c the market has been reflective of what he says in order to gather as much followers in order to drop them off a cliff when their egos have been ingrained with past performace/expirence (success)
in other words
he's setting us up for a huge fail later on?
or is he a real genuine person?
i guess only time will tell
but what he says is clearly so obvious.. that it makes me doubt whether or not this is all arouse.
b.c ive tested stuff/ back tested tons of patterns and sure they all worked well paper trading.
but once you really enter the trade... it never ever goes as plans. probably 2/10 times.
but w.e ill check this theory out on monday. and report back to you guys
b.c the market has been reflective of what he says in order to gather as much followers in order to drop them off a cliff when their egos have been ingrained with past performace/expirence (success)
in other words
he's setting us up for a huge fail later on?
or is he a real genuine person?
i guess only time will tell
but what he says is clearly so obvious.. that it makes me doubt whether or not this is all arouse.
b.c ive tested stuff/ back tested tons of patterns and sure they all worked well paper trading.
but once you really enter the trade... it never ever goes as plans. probably 2/10 times.
but w.e ill check this theory out on monday. and report back to you guys
Just quick comment on doing the rally attempt analysis.
This analysis is one of the cornerstones of the IBD thinking.
As started By WJO'N it is a V and P analysis on an economic and econometric level.
This thread kinda epitimizes how foreign TA is to most people.
Analysis is something that a person does after spinning 180 degrees away from a screen. If you are looking at a screen you are NOT doing analysis.
What is done when looking at a screen is "collecting a data set". I call it monitoring.
When a person has a data set; he can use the data set to drawn a conclusion. Analysis is what is done with data sets to get a tangible result in the form of information.
Lets say a person is oriented to data in a manner that he uses data sets for data processing. A step by step analysis occurs in a formal fixed unvaring manner which allows the same data set to always yield the same analysis result.
for a rally attempt analysis, the data set is fixed in its elements and the elements are valued in the same way each time they are used. A rally attempt by the market is defined and has only one of two results. Pass or fail.
In technical analysis, rally attempts, have significance. If a person has wealtyh and it is invested or traded to make money utilizing a "long sentiment" as a criteria, then he continually tests the market to assure his application of his wealth is correctly aligned with the operation of the market.
In '87 on a daily chart, the V, P rally attempt analysis application, a TA application, repeatedly failed as the market came to its peak.
For boutique brokers using IBD strategies and services, this meant taking their aggressively traded accounts on POA's to CASH. At that time I traded the NFA limit as an amateur and I traded directly on the trading desk by using a telephone.
The way to learn about TA analysis is to collect data sets, do analysis with them (complete data sets) by following specific tests.
Since this Depression has moved past its Bull retrace ending and since this Depression has only one lengthy move to the bottom of the Depression, it is a good idea to use appropriate tests. They exist for all levels of TA fractals.
There is a thread running on wealth and money elsewhere. An essay was referred to. For those who are building wealth, the Depression represents many opportuniies for rapid wealth building. Using technical tests is all part of optimizing wealth building. Taking data sets precedes doing scientific analysis.
During a Depression a lot of wealth evaporates and a lot of wealth changes hands. At this point, marking to market has been discontinued in some areas. These are very highly rated opportunities for those who know how to use testing tools.
This analysis is one of the cornerstones of the IBD thinking.
As started By WJO'N it is a V and P analysis on an economic and econometric level.
This thread kinda epitimizes how foreign TA is to most people.
Analysis is something that a person does after spinning 180 degrees away from a screen. If you are looking at a screen you are NOT doing analysis.
What is done when looking at a screen is "collecting a data set". I call it monitoring.
When a person has a data set; he can use the data set to drawn a conclusion. Analysis is what is done with data sets to get a tangible result in the form of information.
Lets say a person is oriented to data in a manner that he uses data sets for data processing. A step by step analysis occurs in a formal fixed unvaring manner which allows the same data set to always yield the same analysis result.
for a rally attempt analysis, the data set is fixed in its elements and the elements are valued in the same way each time they are used. A rally attempt by the market is defined and has only one of two results. Pass or fail.
In technical analysis, rally attempts, have significance. If a person has wealtyh and it is invested or traded to make money utilizing a "long sentiment" as a criteria, then he continually tests the market to assure his application of his wealth is correctly aligned with the operation of the market.
In '87 on a daily chart, the V, P rally attempt analysis application, a TA application, repeatedly failed as the market came to its peak.
For boutique brokers using IBD strategies and services, this meant taking their aggressively traded accounts on POA's to CASH. At that time I traded the NFA limit as an amateur and I traded directly on the trading desk by using a telephone.
The way to learn about TA analysis is to collect data sets, do analysis with them (complete data sets) by following specific tests.
Since this Depression has moved past its Bull retrace ending and since this Depression has only one lengthy move to the bottom of the Depression, it is a good idea to use appropriate tests. They exist for all levels of TA fractals.
There is a thread running on wealth and money elsewhere. An essay was referred to. For those who are building wealth, the Depression represents many opportuniies for rapid wealth building. Using technical tests is all part of optimizing wealth building. Taking data sets precedes doing scientific analysis.
During a Depression a lot of wealth evaporates and a lot of wealth changes hands. At this point, marking to market has been discontinued in some areas. These are very highly rated opportunities for those who know how to use testing tools.
He's likely ran out of trading forums to troll now??
There's only really traderslab left. That'd be my bet to where he turns up next.
However, im sure we can carry on this thread if you like? We can take it in turns. I'll start:
If you want to MAKE money trading you must DO what is CORRECT for that is the ONLY way to make GOOD money.
What do you SEE??
I did not offer trading advice. I posted a simple chart with Key Daytrading levels. I didn't post what to do/look for/consider/etc. at those levels. It was just a reference for anyone interested. This is when you started your nifty little rant and the sole reason why I posted two trading days P/L while requesting P/L those days from you as well.
I didn't pick a certain two days. I went with the very first day after your posts and then I followed up with second day, just to make sure you saw. I wanted you to walk the walk as you had already talked the talk in response to my chart. I walked the walk for you but you have avoided it altogether. I can certainly post every single day's P/L but that gets old and honestly, a waste of time. I've done it in the past and have all the posts saved to back it up.
Back to the second wave of trading for the day. I don't have time for 4000 posts and novels of information to type. I actually trade...
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