If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

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If you want to fail as a trader, follow someone else on a forum.
98% of the posts on trading forums are garbage. I come to this thread for entertainment. TE does offer up some great advice none the less. I want to make that clear.

The next statement is true. The previous statement is false.

You have to find your own method to this madness. It takes thousands of hours of screen time and that's not screen time in forums.

I've found my magic tool and it's really not magic at all, it's me. It's never the indicator, it's the trader.

Do you have an edge? Can you see things that other traders aren't seeing? When you know...you'll know because you feel good. Hope all of you have a good weekend.
 
Quote from The Expert:

That was my last chart for a while, as I have just got a call telling me to slow down, and, I must obey or I will be kicked from TFF....

TE
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The truth is, obviously, I'd like you to continue to post any information that can be used to put together an approach to trading that improves on anything that I can come up with on my own. Then again, no one would expect you to put yourself at a disadvantage by providing info to a bunch of strangers on a forum. Therefore do what is necessary to stay within the TFF group.

I've been a bit puzzled why any group would go out of their way to help other traders, even if its just a sporadic trickle of info. I first came across TE on T2W, and now here on ET. There is the thread by NY too. Altruistic reasons?

Thanks TE, TFF,
R
 
What you need to understand is that there are indicators that profitable traders use, and there are indicators that you use.

Also, when u assume a profitable trader will rely more on the indicator than the price, you make an a$$ out of yourself.

To not just be critical, I will offer something valuable. Having the fastest internet connect, the fastest data provider, the fastest computer, and the fastest charts are more helpful than having multiple large screens displaying different charts.

Quote from Dackster:

Hey mate, fair enough.

I don't expect you to explain every detail. You seem quite defensive about your usage of indicators, maybe there is an online stigma attached to them, but if you are making money....

I'll tell you why i do not like indicators.

The markets have an inherent frequency, but this frequency can change, hour to hour, day to day, week to week and so on.

Indicators can not cope with the change.

Indicator systems are by logic more prone to drawdowns than PA only systems. The reason for this is that any trader using an indicator system will rely on the indicator(s) more than the price, otherwise they would not be using the indicator(s) in the first place.
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I don't need a chart to trade as I can trade off indicators alone on any time frame. However I don't need indicators to trade as I can trade off PA alone.

So why use indicators? Because one without the other is just half the story.

Every move in price has a mathematical impact that can be weighed with indicators and measured on the charts PA. That weighting is always predictive beyond the capability of PA alone.

While only a few master reading PA, far fewer understand indicators. Indicators can filter noise, reveal sudden energy, show emotion in the market, predict trends and pinpoint reversals.

But you will have to take what is available and be creative. Tape Reading is just using price as an indicator. Volume is the same. There are so many ways to develop a weighting for price movement.

Just as there are so many ways to see structure in PA. So many ways to measure it. So a move has a length A, countered by another length B, perhaps a different length C, then A is repeated and so on. Would I use that? Nope, it was something I tested and improved on. Structure allows you to see into the future.

So when I posted about this move down on the S&P I mentioned that there was strength in the weekly. So it was already visible that a strong move down on the daily would be turned back up by the weekly chart.

The reversal points were known in advance using indicators. The PA just confirmed the prediction.

Caldwell uses a different method from me to measure and predict a reversal point using RSI. I like what he pulls out of the old RSI.
 
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2875843[/img



TE,

Since you said you would comment on charts I would be interested in your input in this situation.


Would you

A. Go short if the next bar was red and heading lower even though price never came all the way up to the previous high.

B. Wait for price to reach the previous high and go short right away putting a stop loss right above the previous high and a target at the bottom of the range.

c. Wait for price to get to the previous high and go long with a stop loss right below the high? if so, Where would your target be if there is no overhead resistance?

D. Wait for price to get to the high and see how the next bar or two closes for confirmation of the direction you would like to place your bet on.




From what I have observed.... Price either bounces off these lines or penetrates them.


I don't like pulling the trigger right as price penetrates the line . I like to wait to see if it is a clean breakout, a bottoming or topping tail. I then place my bet on the close of the bar if it has a tail and looks to be bouncing off the line or if it breaks through wait to enter the retest of the old resistance that is now new support.

I've noticed myself getting whipsawed around these points with the occasional impulse reverse of my position sometimes. Seems I get faked out . I don't know if it's just me or my plan. I still need to work on a few things obviously but would appreciate any insight.
 

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Quote from blox87:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2875843[/img



TE,

Since you said you would comment on charts I would be interested in your input in this situation.


Would you

A. Go short if the next bar was red and heading lower even though price never came all the way up to the previous high.

B. Wait for price to reach the previous high and go short right away putting a stop loss right above the previous high and a target at the bottom of the range.

c. Wait for price to get to the previous high and go long with a stop loss right below the high? if so, Where would your target be if there is no overhead resistance?

D. Wait for price to get to the high and see how the next bar or two closes for confirmation of the direction you would like to place your bet on.


From what I have observed.... Price either bounces off these lines or penetrates them.


I don't like pulling the trigger right as price penetrates the line . I like to wait to see if it is a clean breakout, a bottoming or topping tail. I then place my bet on the close of the bar if it has a tail and looks to be bouncing off the line or if it breaks through wait to enter the retest of the old resistance that is now new support.

I've noticed myself getting whipsawed around these points with the occasional impulse reverse of my position sometimes. Seems I get faked out . I don't know if it's just me or my plan. I still need to work on a few things obviously but would appreciate any insight.
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It depends on what is happening on the DAY you are trading.

Look at the deception video, and why your brain sees things as such.

Reality is what matters most, and, the quicker you distinguish reality from deception, the better off you will be.

Is this real?

img_4645.JPG


Many know the answer, and even more do not.

I think NY had a thread called "The chART of Deception ":D

TE

BTW, the only trader on ET that fully understands what TE is talking about, is, RN:cool:

The reason, well, is probably because he is not that easily deceived
:)
 
Quote from blox87:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2875843[/img



TE,

Since you said you would comment on charts I would be interested in your input in this situation.


Would you

A. Go short if the next bar was red and heading lower even though price never came all the way up to the previous high.

B. Wait for price to reach the previous high and go short right away putting a stop loss right above the previous high and a target at the bottom of the range.

c. Wait for price to get to the previous high and go long with a stop loss right below the high? if so, Where would your target be if there is no overhead resistance?

D. Wait for price to get to the high and see how the next bar or two closes for confirmation of the direction you would like to place your bet on.




From what I have observed.... Price either bounces off these lines or penetrates them.


I don't like pulling the trigger right as price penetrates the line . I like to wait to see if it is a clean breakout, a bottoming or topping tail. I then place my bet on the close of the bar if it has a tail and looks to be bouncing off the line or if it breaks through wait to enter the retest of the old resistance that is now new support.

I've noticed myself getting whipsawed around these points with the occasional impulse reverse of my position sometimes. Seems I get faked out . I don't know if it's just me or my plan. I still need to work on a few things obviously but would appreciate any insight.
More...

Hope you don't mind me chipping in.

This is Box Thinking. Very conventional one dimensional thinking. If there was THE ANSWER you would have this situation under control every time it occurs. Just use that answer.

The problem is this set up can present itself many times and have many different outcomes. So what's the solution? Stop thinking in one dimension.

Here's some building blocks: What is happening in this sector? What relative strength to the sector and the index is shown? What is the expectation for the index? What do larger and smaller time frames suggest?

Then you have the w/e break so consider the globex moves. If all is stable then your analysis will carry the trade. If Israel bombs Iran then it might be Plan B.

Then ask:There is an obvious potential Sell Signal so what would it take to fool the traders? Is this play being set up? If you can see this you can also see if a false break is on.
 
Quote from The Expert:

It depends on what is happening on the DAY you are trading.

Look at the deception video, and why your brain sees things as such.

Reality is what matters most, and, the quicker you distinguish reality from deception, the better off you will be.

Is this real?

img_4645.JPG


Many know the answer, and even more do not.

I think NY had a thread called "The chART of Deception ":D

TE










BTW, the only trader on ET that fully understands what TE is talking about, is, RN:cool:

The reason, well, is probably because he is not that easily deceived
:)
More...


Rabbitone once told me I was simple minded :cool:

Now you say this


Thank You TE :)


Aside…

Way back NY once told me the truth hurts – yet I remember it like it happened yesterday….

Interesting what we humans choose to retain – This one has served me well :cool:


eta - No doubt that picture is real for there it exists on my computer screen:D

RN
 
This is actually an interesting one RN, and, if anyone knows the answer to the picture, please refrain from posting for now.

Is it real or just a computer manipulated image?

Why would someone build a bridge leading into a forest:confused:

What purpose is the bridge serving?

Just a few questions to get to the truth.

TE
 
Quote from The Expert:

This is actually an interesting one RN, and, if anyone knows the answer to the picture, please refrain from posting for now.

Is it real or just a computer manipulated image?

Why would someone build a bridge leading into a forest:confused:

What purpose is the bridge serving?

Just a few questions to get to the truth.

TE
More...

I've never seen this picture before so I can only go by what I can see.

The bridge has vehicles and people on it so that implies it provides a route to somewhere, at least under normal circumstances. Also there is what looks like a pipe at the side and top of the bridge, possibly to supply water, oil or gas. The bridge looks curved but that could just be barrel distortion from the camera. The branches of adjacent trees to the left of the bridge seem to show some regularity in their levels but that could just be my brain seeing a pattern when none exists.

Copying the picture to paint shop pro and zooming in shows something a bit odd at the top left corner of the bridge. Its not clear but it could be a tree at an angle of 30 degrees away from vertical. The end of the bridge appears to be a dead end, and maybe it was at the moment the picture was taken.

The only odd thing about the picture is that the bridge seems to go nowhere. That could be simply because the end of the bridge has been blocked by trees following a landslide. As the trees are large it would only take one to obscure the end of the bridge.

So the picture may well be from a real event or it could have been manipulated as art.
 
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