If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[The Expert]

Quote from ES.Contract:

No, we don’t need to take this any further. Thanks for answering. I won’t bother you or interrupt this thread anymore. Apologies to The Expert.

No need to apologize to anyone, for that is weak-minded, and weak-minded individuals lose in the markets.

What you should say, is, something like this..

"DT, I was wrong about you and your motives, and now that we have squared it up, let us move on and get on with the business of making money, for, we must never forget that making money is all that matters, and, EVERYTHING else takes second place"

R_E is still a dumb twit BTW, for some things never change

TE

 

[The Expert]

Quote from blox87:

I have all the abbreviations except for these...

WTSATFBD or WTBATFBO


Wait then sell at the first Break down, wait then buy at the first break out?????


I would like to know a little bit about how TE picks a target and a stop loss . I know sometimes he doesn't use stop losses but I know there has to be a point where he exits or reverses so I would be interested to find out what he thinks is optimal. I have found that just leaving the target and stop loss in place without fudging with it works best for me. Every time i mess with it or exit early I kick myself later.

ADEQUATE RANGE...REMEMBER

There was also some other KEY terms mentioned that should be memorized, but, I wonder how many can recall them:eek:

TE

 

[macattack]

One of the key things is to create a plan/process and follow it. How do you create & follow a set process if things are always changing and the variables are always changing?

As an example let's say your plan is to "wait then buy at the first pullback" using a certain bar formation as a trigger.
Now every day has different variables:

So what if this pullback had such strong momentum you decide the odds just aren't worth taking the trade.

What if when you look at the entry chart the setup looks great, but you decide the big picture chart negates taking the trade?

What if it's Friday afternoon and the volume has been sluggish all day, so again you think the odds just aren't worth entering the trade?

My question is do you blindly follow your process and take every signal, or do you try to logically think about all of the ever-changing variables and avoid certain trades therefore overriding your process?

 

[The Expert]

Quote from NoDoji:

Blox, I too found that leaving stop and target in place works best, but I'm still struggling with targets.

Friday I had 4 trades in crude oil (CL):

First was a SLABL in pre-market and since it had already broken down very hard was extremely overextended, I covered at the first sign of buyers for a very quick gain on this momentum play.

Then I had a SHABL when price double topped following a strong run up. It was counter-trend and I had a .20 target. I got .11 in my favor and was then stopped out b/e.

Next a WTSAFBD, using a breakdown of the 20 bar EMA, so I would be with-trend. This is the trade where I let previous trades cause me to be way too conservative with my target and leave a lot of money on the table. In choosing my target for this trade, I decided that since this was the first breakdown of the 20 EMA following a strong uptrend, price would do what it usually does and bounce at the lower channel line, then bounce and allow a with-trend re-entry to the short side for a real move down when the rally stalled. Sure enough, price tested the lower line, stalled, retested it, found support and I exited there, waiting for my expected re-entry signal. Had I left my stop at b/e and just waited, I would've caught a piece of a further .57 move. I was frustrated several days in a row letting $200-$300 winners reverse to b/e trying to let my targets be hit and allowed that frustration to bleed into a brand new trade. All week I'd been targeting a .70 move in CL and I gave it away by making assumptions about what price would do.

After that large move, I had a SHABL with-trend entry, selling the small bounce the moment it failed, and set my target .05 below the previous pivot low because price had broken down so hard that a reversal there was likely. I lowered my target a bit when price reached it and tightened my stop to target. Initial target was attained on the pivot just a few ticks from the pivot low, so this trade worked out very well.

Normally I set initial profit targets at a measured lower low in a downtrend, measured higher high in an uptrend. If trading breakouts, I set initial targets at a level similar to the most common breakout levels. If CL has been breaking out .30-.40 then I'll target .30-.40 on a breakout trade.

Trend channel lines and previous S/R levels also help with targets, but sometimes limit your profits unless you're scaling out.

And no MA



TE

 

[The Expert]

Quote from Mysteron:

The wiggly line in question is a MA and by definition it is derived from current and past price so it therefore lags. Some people seem to think that price reverts to the mean, i.e that the MA leads the price, and can therefore be a predictor of price.

I don't believe that, its not good maths.

The only way that MA could possibly be a predictor of price is if a sufficlently large number of traders believed it to be true in order to make the prophecy self-fulfulling. So its really a question of belief and faith.

Personally, I think that the idea of price reverting to a mean is nonsense.

99.999% of it is nonsense

TE

 

[The Expert]

Quote from NoDoji:

You guys really have me wondering how I would do trading with NOTHING on my chart except price bars. Maybe all this time I'm thinking the 20 EMA and 1.0 dev Keltners are my keys to the kingdom and in reality I'd be making 5 times as much income without them.

How about 25

Time = Money

NY has mentioned a password protected pdf that he posted here a good while ago, and, he said RN knows all about it

TE

 

[The Expert]

Quote from Fibbin-Archie:

You're dead right Dackster, rather than discussing methods and systems perhaps we'd be better off discussing how to better cultivate this essential skill.

Simple really, when you use the B&E approach

TE

 

[trader198]

you misunderstand what I said. I did not mean psychology, I joke it, did you notice I put a question mark there? say yes, when in a question mark, that is a NO. because of your emotional decision making, your trading is going astray, you must put back your rationale and logic in the decision center.

when you drive your car, you have emotions, you plan pretty well beforehand for your trip, but things you could not factor all them in, such as road-work road closure, or sudden traffic jam/delay because of car accident ahead of your trip, you feel very frustrated and you may not prepare for other routes (you do not have GPS or maps), what you should do, emotional decision can make things better such as blaming your spouse for not preparing other routes or buying a GPS? NO. when I missed a cross or a turn or an exit in an unfamilar highway/freeway, most time I yelled at my wife, particularly when my wife asked me to stop and seek help, I yell more, that makes things worse, a happy vacation trip turned out to terrible, ..... Emotional decisions should be removed.

in trading, the same happens. when people lost money, then they become emotional. they lose more, they start to rely on tips, or here TA, look for holy grail. do we have holy grail in trading? NO. seeking holy grail is a emotional doing. you know, it is a bad decision. a right decision should be logic/rational fact based!

Quote from MAESTRO:

Well said! Here is Dr. Howard Moskowitz site. He knows better than anyone else about the role psychology plays in our decision making. Check out his videos and read his books. You should see that logic has very little to do with our decision making; it's all about psychology!

http://www.mji-designlab.com/

 

[macattack]

Quote from The Expert:

How about 25

Time = Money

NY has mentioned a password protected pdf that he posted here a good while ago, and, he said RN knows all about it

TE

What exactly do you mean when you keep saying "time=money"? Everything seems to be a riddle with you, so do you just simply mean figure out how to make as much money as possible in as little time as possible, or do you mean something else?

 

[The Expert]

Quote from macattack:

One of the key things is to create a plan/process and follow it. How do you create & follow a set process if things are always changing and the variables are always changing?

As an example let's say your plan is to "wait then buy at the first pullback" using a certain bar formation as a trigger.
Now every day has different variables:

So what if this pullback had such strong momentum you decide the odds just aren't worth taking the trade.

What if when you look at the entry chart the setup looks great, but you decide the big picture chart negates taking the trade?

What if it's Friday afternoon and the volume has been sluggish all day, so again you think the odds just aren't worth entering the trade?

My question is do you blindly follow your process and take every signal, or do you try to logically think about all of the ever-changing variables and avoid certain trades therefore overriding your process?

What the fuk MK:eek:

Only plan required is as follows, in capital RED letters posted right over your PC

"STOP..WHAT THE FUK DO YOU THINK YOU ARE DOING..YOU STUPID FUKIN IDIOT..NOW COP ON..AND..DO WHAT YOU KNOW YOU MUST DO..STOP FUKIN ABOUT..OK..FOR..TIME=MONEY!"

TE