If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[Pekelo]

Quote from Pekelo:

I mean the cash gap between the close and the open.

Today was the 3rd gap down in a row and it just got closed. Actually there was another nice try just before the open at 9 am, so for those who actually pay attention there were 2 occasions to pick up 5+ easy points this morning based on the 2nd gap rule...

But TA obviously doesn't work...

 

[Fibbin-Archie]

"Short-term traders may find the fundamental information interesting, but on a stand-alone basis, trading on fundamental analysis rarely equates to profitable trades. In fact, following fundamental analysis is often an obstacle when trading because traders tend to form an opinion of what the stock “should do” and many times that opinion gets in the way of objectively analyzing what the stock actually does."

"Technical analysis, on the other hand, attempts to determine when a stock may move and how long that move may last."

"Technical analysis allows the trader to objectively look at price action to determine what is a good or bad trade."

I found a few succinct exerts from a Brian Shannon article, I thought they were quite relevant to this discussion.

 

[deaddog]

Quote from Fibbin-Archie:

Just found a great, easy to understand primer on Price / Volume Relationship that you can read and digest in about 10 mins.

PM me for the link if anyone's interested.

Did you get my PM

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Fibbin-Archie:

"Short-term traders may find the fundamental information interesting, but on a stand-alone basis, trading on fundamental analysis rarely equates to profitable trades. In fact, following fundamental analysis is often an obstacle when trading because traders tend to form an opinion of what the stock “should do” and many times that opinion gets in the way of objectively analyzing what the stock actually does."
"Technical analysis, on the other hand, attempts to determine when a stock may move and how long that move may last."
"Technical analysis allows the trader to objectively look at price action to determine what is a good or bad trade."
I found a few succinct exerts from a Brian Shannon article, I thought they were quite relevant to this discussion.

I have a good friend that ran a hedge fund in CA tell me a few years ago that the perfect analytical environment was solid fundamental information for his both his long term positions and a bias for his medium term positions & rock solid technical analysis (charting) for his short and medium term positions.

He used the technical information I shared with you as a system of checks and balances to fine tune his traders picks with great success. So much so that he has tuned over the reins of the fund to someone else, retired and is now self-investing on his own.

The points Brian makes are perfect but we all know there are individuals that will always argue the relevance.

 

[Fibbin-Archie]

Quote from deaddog:

Did you get my PM

I have now, I've replied to everyone via ET Private Message, for some reason I didn't get any email notification of messages.

 

[Fibbin-Archie]

Quote from ProfLogic:

I have a good friend that ran a hedge fund in CA tell me a few years ago that the perfect analytical environment was solid fundamental information for his both his long term positions and a bias for his medium term positions & rock solid technical analysis (charting) for his short and medium term positions.

He used the technical information I shared with you as a system of checks and balances to fine tune his traders picks with great success. So much so that he has tuned over the reins of the fund to someone else, retired and is now self-investing on his own.

The points Brian makes are perfect but we all know there are individuals that will always argue the relevance.

So long as it's objective arguments and not bigoted then I don't really mind, if anything it's good to "stay on your toes" and re-evaluate your ideology from time to time and for the most part it tends to reinforce my beliefs about TA.

However, it is unfortunate that you rarely get an objective and unbigoted debate opponent.

 

[odlareg]

Quote from The Expert:

ELEMENTARY, my Dear Watson



TE

This is about low risk: the under left high - low range is made yellow. Action: Sell resistance, buy support. You know these after the first bar. So stay within the yellow area, buying and selling. Nice range. Pretty safe. Stop outside the range. Twice breakout, however not clear, or confirmation, so false.

The yellow right part, same story. However last bar can predict breakout, because some part of pattern with the previous bar.
In case of breakout down (now it is clear!),. Sell, stop in range. Maybe goes to the bottom of the previous range, where is demand. So low risk return ratio. perhaps a little bit difficult how i explain.

 

[marketnerfer]

Quote from ProfLogic:

I have a good friend that ran a hedge fund in CA tell me a few years ago that the perfect analytical environment was solid fundamental information for his both his long term positions and a bias for his medium term positions & rock solid technical analysis (charting) for his short and medium term positions.

He used the technical information I shared with you as a system of checks and balances to fine tune his traders picks with great success. So much so that he has tuned over the reins of the fund to someone else, retired and is now self-investing on his own.

The points Brian makes are perfect but we all know there are individuals that will always argue the relevance.

The mistrade in PG triggered selling just proved my point that your charts, and TA is meaningless in the face of the real market.

You never know what is going to happen, regardless of the kind of box you try to squeeze the market into.

Informational arbitrage is one of the only edges left...

nerf

 

[FightTheFuture]

Quote from The Expert:

Hi All,

... T2W... decided to ban me

How many times have you been banned from ET?

You're the same repetitive whatsit from years back.

68 pages?

 

[Fibbin-Archie]

Quote from marketnerfer:



The mistrade in PG triggered selling just proved my point that your charts, and TA is meaningless in the face of the real market.

You never know what is going to happen, regardless of the kind of box you try to squeeze the market into.

Informational arbitrage is one of the only edges left...

nerf

Informational arbitrage on this afternoon's sell off? Assuming it was down to a P&G mis-sell, then you're saying you would have known in advance that the cat was going to jump onto the keyboard are you? (That's a joke BTW)

Indices have been rolling over the past couple of days anyway any technician could have told you that, if you'd taken an index short near yesterday's high you'd be laughing.

Also erroneous occurrences happen that's why we hedge and use stops.