If you want to fail as a trader, study TA
- Thread starter The Expert
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I can see you are trying to help others see the "obvious". (which I cannot see) Lets go back to the chart of BDX. The wide range bar didnt encounter sellers until the swing high of a few days back. It also opened with buying at the low. The narrow range bar started back down toward the low of the WRB and has also made the highest low in 3 bars. Another observation of this narrow bar is that the range is so narrow but the volume or interest in the stock at this level was relatively high for such a small range.
What about channels? Doesn't the existence of crests and troughs reveal that, yea there's been some predictability. And,
if you don't use the past then what tense are you going to
make reference to ...the future?
if you don't use the past then what tense are you going to
make reference to ...the future?
TE,
I see that many times that price tends to narrow it's range before taking off. Is that due to big money trying to calm things down and fill their orders in an orderly fashion?
Big Money cool, calm, & collected = narrow ranges.
Amatuers panic, euphoria, scared, greedy = wide ranges.
Does that make any sense? Maybe not.
I see that many times that price tends to narrow it's range before taking off. Is that due to big money trying to calm things down and fill their orders in an orderly fashion?
Big Money cool, calm, & collected = narrow ranges.
Amatuers panic, euphoria, scared, greedy = wide ranges.
Does that make any sense? Maybe not.
Quote from The Expert:
...It took The Expert many years of hard work and countless ups and downs, to, finally, SEE what is ACTUALLY required, and, when The Expert saw what is ACTUALLY required, he laughed for a whole day, without stopping, for, if the TRUTH be known, a CHILD can make GOOD money trading US Stocks, for, the difficult part is not picking the right stock, for that has already been covered in detail, but, the difficult part is believing that it is ACTUALLY so simple...
TE
Hi TE,
Are you saying that one day you were looking at a chart and you suddenly realised that there is a simple relationship between intraday bars and levels set up on a higher time frame that enabled you to predict (better than random chance) where the price action would go that day? At that time were you already aware how THE GENERALS operate and if so did that knowledge assist in your awakening? I have the info on THE GENERALS that DT made available.
I don't daytrade, yet, and I'm trying to get a handle on what you are saying. BTW I have a full time job and trading while at work isn't possible, I live in the UK and can't catch the open of the NYSE. You've advised initially trading 100 shares for $1 and that eventually it will become apparent through experience how to trade profitably, which is a good point. Having had a bad experience several years ago when I started trading I tend to be more cautious, which is why I'm dubious about TA. I like to understand the underlying mechanism or evidence for a technique to work, and thats also true for a chart reading method that you may be suggesting.
I wasn't sure why you were showing the BDX chart recently, were the bars on that day a hint at the revelation you had, or was it just to stimulate discussion or maybe confusion?
I've noticed that a large opening gap tends to be followed by a large range that day, but more info is needed to judge direction as to where the bulk of the range will be relative to the open price. For the BDX chart I note that the close of the two bars preceding each of the gap bars points in the direction of the bulk of the range on the gap days but that could just be a fluke.
I've seen your pdf files of 52 day range plots from t2w and I note they were exported fom Excel (which I haven't got). I presume these are plots of daily H-L, possibly averaged, rather than Average True Range. Where did you get the data from? I can get historic share price data from Yahoo finance and process it using my own tools to get similar plots, but it will be very tedious doing that for the entire S&P500, or even for a large subset after stock screening (I use finviz). So those plots would only be produced infrequently and add to the screening process.
Narrow range but with disproportionately large volume (usually near the bottom/top of a channel) = accumulation/distribution, buying/selling = gearing up for a move, maybe? Is that what he's getting at with the references to "the generals?"
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