If you think the Fed will stop hiking, look at Bitcoin

vanzandt said:
Ya know I read this post, and I didn't take it lightly. And I know I joke around a lot here, but I am being totally serious.

The debate can go on and on... is Bitcoin worth anything, or is it ether?

I really pondered it.. and the light came on. The answer to the question is, it doesn't matter. Because Baron, JohnnyArb, and several others here are not alone in their feelings. For lack of a better word, they are HODL'rs. True believers. And I suspect they are not alone. I mean... obviously they're not.

This world is a very fragile place, the bottom could be pulled out from under us in a minute. For real. It really could. If you think otherwise, you're stupid.

These Hodl'r types... like Baron and John, they are not selling. It's almost like a cult, and I don't mean that in a bad way. In fact I mean it in a good way. None of us know what tomorrow will bring, but the greater the uncertainty, the greater the value in the scarcity of an asset that many many wealthy, smart people will never sell. Wanna join the club? Pay the price.

I'm gonna make a very bold call here... sometimes I just feel things. And in 1000% full disclosure, I have never owned so much as 1 BTC... but I have a very strong feeling, and these don't come around often.... that Bitcoin is heading north.

It's funny, because the last time I looked, it was 24K. I don't follow it. But before I wrote this, I looked and it was 26K.

Am I calling a bottom? No, not necessarily, but I am saying that bitcoin will become the province of the elite, and as such... it is only heading north.

Ya'll can think I'm crazy.... but I'm right.
~vz
___________________

edit: 27K... I just looked again.
Probably the worst time to call it out as such.
Honestly... I had no idea.
I really didn't.
Whatever.
More...
Well I see it made to $28k+ today.
Go figure.

I could write a whole essay about this and why I know I'm right, but it would take forever, and even at that, I don't think I would adequately explain how I know this.

Bitcoin is only going up.
I mean yeah it will fluctuate, but write this down....
It is going up in a big way.
It may take a bit, but the longer it consolidates around a level, the larger the next up-spike will be.

I'll put it like this... we have reached a certain point... Bitcoin will now be driven by the same (and this is what is too long to write) ... metrics that existed with TSLA after all the dust settled back around 2019.

TSLA on 12/1/2019.
That's exactly where Bitcoin is now.
It's too hard to explain, and it would be a waste of my time trying.
But as I said above... I'm right.
You'll see.
~vz
 
vanzandt said:
Well I see it made to $28k+ today.
Go figure.

I could write a whole essay about this and why I know I'm right, but it would take forever, and even at that, I don't think I would adequately explain how I know this.

Bitcoin is only going up.
I mean yeah it will fluctuate, but write this down....
It is going up in a big way.
It may take a bit, but the longer it consolidates around a level, the larger the next up-spike will be...

~vz
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Without a Feb backstop in the form of a pause, it is going to be as range-bound as the NDX. This coming Wednesday is going to be quite important for the push above 30K
 
Overnight said:
Without a Feb backstop in the form of a pause, it is going to be as range-bound as the NDX. This coming Wednesday is going to be quite important for the push above 30K
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that has nothing to do with anything regarding my post
>go away
$28,232
 
Baron said:
Really? Should the CME fold up all the micro and e-mini futures contracts that traders speculate on every single day since that business isn't "real"? Should Las Vegas shut down because gambling isn't a real business? Should all the brokerage firms that facilitate speculative day trading just close up shop?
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If you want to pretend a bunch of dudes on a street corner shooting dice constitutes real economic output, that's on you.

As far as "investment" vehicles, I think CFDs should be banned. If you want to invest in a futures contract that has appropriate financial backing that should be up to you with two caveats...

1) Comex and the like should be forced to guarantee the availability of settlement in the commodity that their contract supposedly tracks the value of. The ability to force a counterparty to settle for cash is ridiculous. It deliberately de-couples the contract from the market price of the commodity.

2) if the amount of money betting on the movement of a commodity price becomes greater than the real world trading in the product, sellers of contracts should be required to obtain insurance for those contracts.
 
Yet the value of BTC was cut in half in 2023. Someone lost a lot of money.
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Sure, those who aped in on the top, and then sold at the bottom to crystalize their losses. Because... reasons. This is what a lot of those LATE to the party always do. Doesn't matter what generation... we saw it in trains, 1929, 2000, 2007....

Those who held onto their blue-chips after 2000 retired with generational wealth. Some good stuff was thrown right out with the bath-water.
 
The_Krakenite said:
Sure, those who aped in on the top, and then sold at the bottom to crystalize their losses. Because... reasons. This is what a lot of those LATE to the party always do. Doesn't matter what generation... we saw it in trains, 1929, 2000, 2007....

Those who held onto their blue-chips after 2000 retired with generational wealth. Some good stuff was thrown right out with the bath-water.
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Well I held on after 2000 but didn't like the ride down. Some of the blue chips at the time never recovered. By 2008 I changed stategy was got to miss 2008 as well as 2020 and 22.
What goes down doesn't always go back up.
 
deaddog said:
Well I held on after 2000 but didn't like the ride down. Some of the blue chips at the time never recovered. By 2008 I changed stategy was got to miss 2008 as well as 2020 and 22.
What goes down doesn't always go back up.
More...

When it come to the indices on "what goes down doesn't always go back up", yes it does. That is inherent in the design, because of the world economy. For individual companies, no.
 
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