If you think the Fed will stop hiking, look at Bitcoin

Frederick Foresight said:
Wasn't BTC's scarcity artificially established at 21 million? Doesn't arbitrary and artificial rarity alone give you pause?
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Not at all. Manufacturers of luxury goods all over the world routinely establish predetermined production caps for their most unique products to create scarcity and value. Ferrari does it all the time which is why their most rare vehicles are worth millions.

Frederick Foresight said:
As for the huge demand for it, is not that huge demand fueled by a desire to get rich fairly quickly and easily from it?
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You're trying to apply a "get rich quick" mentality to explain the demand for Bitcoin and then somehow demonizing that, as if somehow that's a reason to stay far away from it. But that's what trading/investing is, a desire to invest capital into an appreciating asset so you can reap a return later.

I'm not trying to rip on you. It just baffles me that you still can't grasp any of these concepts after we've been going over this stuff for years.
 
Baron said:
Not at all. Manufacturers of luxury goods all over the world routinely establish predetermined production caps for their most unique products to create scarcity and value. Ferrari does it all the time which is why their most rare vehicles are worth millions.
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I get it. It's manipulative, but it works. But now we're talking about an overtly and substantially manipulated investment/trading asset rather than a luxury feel-good accessory. If your risk tolerance allows for it, then fine. In fact, looking back, sure I wish I had gotten into it. Who wouldn't? But not with the information I had at the time. I am far too risk-averse. And certainly not now.

Baron said:
You're trying to apply a "get rich quick" mentality to explain the demand for Bitcoin and then somehow demonizing that, as if somehow that's a reason to stay far away from it. But that's what trading/investing is, a desire to invest capital into an appreciating asset so you can reap a return later.
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I suppose it depends on the underlying. I recall that one of Schwager's market wizards said traders would bet on the direction that cockroaches crawl if they could find someone else to take the other side of that trade (or something like that). I guess I'm not one of those guys. And to me, crypto is a cockroach.

Baron said:
I'm not trying to rip on you.
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Likewise. And although I want crypto to die because it simply does not comport with my understanding of a sane world, I hope you eventually get out when the getting is still good and and make (keep) a decent return.
 
Baron said:
Really? You need to think this through more.

If you wanted to buy a tanker truck of orange juice to be delivered next week, but there were no tanker trucks or other delivery options to ship it to you (or anyone else), then the commodity itself would spoil and be worthless.
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This example is interesting because it misses the same thing that many people do when looking at Bitcoin: alternatives

Assuming your ridiculous scenario happens and hundreds of millions are dying due to lack of transportation to move food, there are still options:
1) Have the starving people showing up at the farm pay. (Since all trucks and transportation have vanished, people with half a brain are going to hoof it the where the food is.)
2) Process the oranges on site into frozen concentrate.

With Bitcoin, people fail adequately consider the existence of alternatives. Although there is a limited number of Bitcoins, the potential supply of alternative cryptocurrencies is limitless.
It's like sinking all your money into Netscape because "that internet thing is going to be huge". Even if crypto does become a major currency long term, I doubt it will be Bitcoin that wins the race.
It's too volatile and too poorly featured for people who want to conduct real business.
 
deaddog said:
Was that buying stuff or trading in and out of crypto?
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Irrelevant. Whether it's trading BTC or using BTC for purchases, it's still "real business" as @engineering put it, and $8Trillion worth of successful transactions is incredible no matter how you look at it.
 
Baron said:
Irrelevant. Whether it's trading BTC or using BTC for purchases, it's still "real business" as @engineering put it, and $8Trillion worth of successful transactions is incredible no matter how you look at it.
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It's very relevant if you don't want to value a deli at $100 million.

Nobody buys a 747 or apartment building in Bitcoin. Speculative gambling is not real business.

What percentage of those transactions were with retailers? Industrial suppliers? Paid rent to a landlord?
 
engineering said:
Speculative gambling is not real business.
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Really? Should the CME fold up all the micro and e-mini futures contracts that traders speculate on every single day since that business isn't "real"? Should Las Vegas shut down because gambling isn't a real business? Should all the brokerage firms that facilitate speculative day trading just close up shop?
 
Baron said:
Irrelevant. Whether it's trading BTC or using BTC for purchases, it's still "real business" as @engineering put it, and $8Trillion worth of successful transactions is incredible no matter how you look at it.
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Yet the value of BTC was cut in half in 2023. Someone lost a lot of money.
 
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