If You R Not Sh*tting Your Pants Then
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Maybe his guts are upset!
Shortie's post may have alluded to the post below in economics forum.
One other thng shortie: You mentioned (maybe in another thread) some analysis by hulbert. With gold down today, I wonder if he is publishing something. I would not be surprised if price were to change his analysis. If you or other here come across one of his article could you update?
don't know if you saw this. but indeed Hulbert detects excess bullishness just a few days under detecting extreme bearishness in gold bugs. the bulls in his survey are the exact people who got burnt today.
July 19, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Goldâs run is almost over
Commentary: Excitement in the gold market has reached fever pitch
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) â Brace yourself, gold traders.
Bullionâs extraordinary run is fast running out of steam. Donât be surprised if gold pulls back in coming sessions.
At a minimum, such a pullback would be a health-restoring event for the bull. However, such a pullback could also be the start of something more serious. Weâll know soon after it begins.
For now, though, the important thing for short-term traders to know is that excitement has grown markedly over the last couple of sessions, and now stands at close to the fever pitch that prevailed in late April. Soon after that previous crescendo of bullish enthusiasm, of course, gold encountered a stunning air pocket and fell more than $100 per ounce.
Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at 67%, which is within shouting distance of the 73.7% level the HGNSI rose to in late April, which was a several-year high.
The wall of worry that the gold market has been climbing in recent weeks is close to disintegrating, in other words.
This represents a big change from just a few days ago, when that wall of worry remained quite strong â surprisingly so, in fact, given that gold had already run up by quite a bit and was close to its late April peak (which was registered at around $1,560 an ounce). This is what allowed contrarians to forecast that gold would be able to significantly break above its previous all-time closing high. ( Read my Jul 13. column in Barronâs âGold can head even higher.â )
Click to Play
Why gold could lose grip on $1,600
An extended selloff in stocks and a drop in the Swiss franc against the dollar are two signs that the rally in gold is likely to fade, Richard Hastings, a macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities, tells MarketWatch's Laura Mandaro.
The deteriorating sentiment picture doesnât mean goldâs run is over, I hasten to add. The bull marketâs longer-term future depends in no small part on how sentiment reacts to coming market weakness.
It would be a positive sign, from a contrarian point of view, if the gold traders were to quickly run for the exits in the face of that weakness. That would suggest that there remains an underlying climate of skittishness about gold, which would allow the wall of worry to be quickly rebuilt.
In contrast, it would be a negative sign if the gold traders cling to their new-found bullishness in the face of market weakness. Contrarians believe stubbornly held bullishness to be a particularly bad sign, suggesting that more downside action is necessary before a sustainable rally can once again begin in earnest.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-run-is-almost-over-2011-07-19
total put/call hit the lowest level since Jan 2011. the market is selling off AH after INTC and EBAY reported. Call buyers got it wrong?
If I were to wear my contrarian hat then I would say that we have excessive complacency here in call/put. But I think the signal is weak and should be ignored because VIX does not show any complacency. In fact, i would say that VIX is stretched to the upside given the fact that QQQ was close to the high for the year today (but SPY is lagging in this respect)
comments?
If I were to wear my contrarian hat then I would say that we have excessive complacency here in call/put. But I think the signal is weak and should be ignored because VIX does not show any complacency. In fact, i would say that VIX is stretched to the upside given the fact that QQQ was close to the high for the year today (but SPY is lagging in this respect)
comments?
Interesting observations. Did they take yesterday's low?
Ongoing equity buy support and USD sell pressure indicates that rally may happen after all.
What the hell have you posted in this thread that is in some way "correct" ? You clearly don't understand what the catalysts are for moving markets. Does the Nasdaq move because of AAPL's earnings, or because of some "tension" indicated by a higher VIX ?
Tell me what was the point of the SPY/VIX pair you thought was worthy of numerous posts ? Where do you even say what you believe this means ? Where was the analysis, I saw the observation but there seemed to be no connection to any analysis at all.