If you knew when the next major down move will be

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Yep, you would. Well, depending on how large a position your "farm" is. If you all of a sudden take an out-of-character size trade that just happens to coincide with an enormous macro based move, then that's clearly suspicious and you SHOULD be investigated. The chances of it being dumb luck are so slim. People don't bet the farm in the market unless they know something and if you do it the DAY OF, that's even more obvious!

exactly.

imagine taking an out of character trade in size the day before a major event on far otm index puts...don't let the cell door hit you on the way in :D

im not saying it doesn't get done, im just saying a high probabilty that you will be red flagged.
 
Strange! Why should I get flagged? Come on, a major down move mean others, many others are also betting down as well. So, if hundreds firms close positions or open to short, and the market moves down on that particular day, then we'll all get flagged. wft! I'd be following the herd, whats wrong with that? How is that a crime?

Quote from ElCubano:

exactly.

imagine taking an out of character trade in size the day before a major event on far otm index puts...don't let the cell door hit you on the way in :D

im not saying it doesn't get done, im just saying a high probabilty that you will be red flagged.
 
Are these others all betting everything they have and getting the EXACT DAY correct?

No one said it's NECESSARILY a crime, but you will get investigated. And if the investigation leads to some info that isn't kosher, you will be fucked.


Quote from El Guapo:

Strange! Why should I get flagged? Come on, a major down move mean others, many others are also betting down as well. So, if hundreds firms close positions or open to short, and the market moves down on that particular day, then we'll all get flagged. wft! I'd be following the herd, whats wrong with that? How is that a crime?
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Are these others all betting everything they have and getting the EXACT DAY correct?

No one said it's NECESSARILY a crime, but you will get investigated. And if the investigation leads to some info that isn't kosher, you will be fucked.

exactly....look at my initial post. I said you open yourself up to being investigated...that's all...


http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2007/2007-93.htm

this trade was flagged which eventually lead them to WANGSTER..
 
Quote from ElCubano:

exactly.

imagine taking an out of character trade in size the day before a major event on far otm index puts...don't let the cell door hit you on the way in :D

im not saying it doesn't get done, im just saying a high probabilty that you will be red flagged.

More chance of being flagged on individual issues where an influential MM would make a stink to try and break the trades. On OTM Index Puts unlikely the OP would have the size to be noticed. Guys who loaded up on $100K+ FOTM index puts before the '87 crash didn't get investigated.
 
Quote from achilles28:

Deep out of the money put options on index futures.
Or consider futures ..... if your overall trading is profitable, the tax rate for the futures is around 10% lower than stocks/options.
 
Quote from Mvic:

More chance of being flagged on individual issues where an influential MM would make a stink to try and break the trades. On OTM Index Puts unlikely the OP would have the size to be noticed. Guys who loaded up on $100K+ FOTM index puts before the '87 crash didn't get investigated.

more power to him then....good luck el guapo.

p.s. there is only room for 1 guapo in ET....:D
 
Quote from promagma:

Or consider futures ..... if your overall trading is profitable, the tax rate for the futures is around 10% lower than stocks/options.

options on futures get the same treatment as futures for taxes
 
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