IF you knew for a fact that Russia would win the event,

[vanzandt]

Anywhere you take it within the scenario's parameters.
1) Product?
2) Position?
See that first word there in the title? a great big IF?

Politics? Put it in that section, the Politics section.
There's no value in a pissing match to deflect from the simple 2 response items of interest.

Thanks man, your input would be appreciated in this or in an opposite thread in this section.

Start it up if that suits you.

Well basically what I was saying is it would be priced in as the event wouldn't just happen out of the blue. Traders would see the writing on the wall, the smarter the trader, the earlier they'll see it.
For the long haul, your list is fine. I don't think the vix would work though, its only good when there exists a high degree of uncertainty. @VicBee made good points too.

 

[smallfil]

Obviously oil and gas would drop gradually, so shorting of them would make sense.
But if the tensions btw China and US rise, then oil & gas would rise again.
Similar situation for wheat and some metals, like titanium, which have developed similar to oil & gas.

But I think with other "normal" Russian companies one should go Long, IMO.
Rationale: many Russian exports now redirected to China b/c of discriminatory sanctions of the West. Also many investments from China in Russia. Ie. now a much better economic climate for Russian companies b/c of the huge potential in the big Chinese market.
Bottom line: Russia is winning also on the economic front.

US and Europe continuing to buy Russian oil and natural gas even now at full market price. That is not winning? Russia is raking in tens of billions in the process. Ukraine war can last another 10 years if Joe Biden wishes but, he will be out of office in 2025. Republicans would be under immense pressure to curtail excessive spending on Ukraine which is now at $54 billion and rising. Inflation is not going down because the Schumer bill will ramp up prices with their huge tax increases on US companies who will pass on the increased taxes in higher prices for US consumers. Once, the US cuts aid to Ukraine, the Ukraine war ends. I do not think it will reach 2025 but, end much sooner.

 

[Cabin111]

Yep. The country that cannot even produce white office paper, where vehicle production dropped 95% (!), and the remaining produced vehicles do not have ABS, auto transmissions or air bags, where the most advanced electronics they can manufacture are 90nm, where the tank factory had to close (during a war!) because of lack of foreign-produced parts...

#winning.

What are you talking about??

Some of the most advanced technology in the world comes from Russia!!

 

[margin_gamble]

...
THEN what trading / investment actions would you take?
Products?
Positions?

This question poses a What If Secnario and
your Actions IF and WHEN you were made aware that this outcome is to be.

This is a trading / investment question not a political question.
IF you wanna root for one side or the other,
IF you wanna justify your view,
THEN the Politics forum linked below is the place you can do that to your heart's content.

Russia & Ukraine - Discussion in 'Politics' link...
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/russia-ukraine.364278/

Long AK

 

[albion]

...
THEN what trading / investment actions would you take?
Products?
Positions?

Russia lost back in February/March. Even if Russia can keep some of the areas it has taken in Crimea and Donbas, it has still lost the war from a larger perspective. The illusion of it being a major power is now gone and its economy will be diminished greatly for years to come. So, my point is that I'd be curious to know what investment actions to take knowing that Ukraine is going to win considering that the markets have mostly priced in this fact already.

 

[easymon1]

" "

IF you knew for a fact that Russia would win the event,
It's hard for somma ya'lls to see that big ass IF and move on ain't it, lol.

 

[zghorner]

Russia lost back in February/March. Even if Russia can keep some of the areas it has taken in Crimea and Donbas, it has still lost the war from a larger perspective. The illusion of it being a major power is now gone and its economy will be diminished greatly for years to come. So, my point is that I'd be curious to know what investment actions to take knowing that Ukraine is going to win considering that the markets have mostly priced in this fact already.

I just cant imagine anyone thinking Russia cant dominate Ukraine if they wanted to. It's as if everyone is being fed propaganda...and believing it or something, idk...

 

[easymon1]

I just cant imagine anyone thinking Russia cant dominate Ukraine if they wanted to. It's as if everyone is being fed propaganda...and believing it or something, idk...

Dammit, Janet!
Politics is the place for that kinda crap. Take pissing contests over there pls.

--
THEN what trading / investment actions would you take?
Products?
Positions?

This question poses a What If Secnario and
your Actions IF and WHEN you were made aware that this outcome is to be.

This is a trading / investment question not a political question.
IF you wanna root for one side or the other,
IF you wanna justify your view,
THEN the Politics forum linked below is the place you can do that to your heart's content.

Russia & Ukraine - Discussion in 'Politics' link...
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/russia-ukraine.364278/

 

[SunTrader]

I just cant imagine anyone thinking Russia cant dominate Ukraine if they wanted to. It's as if everyone is being fed propaganda...and believing it or something, idk...

So if they could why aren't they then?

 

[earth_imperator]

So if they could why aren't they then?

Just strategy, war tactics, b/c it's not only btw Russia and Ukraine, but btw Russia and the whole brainless Western idiots!...
Russia plays chess, the Westerners can't play chess (they lack the mental capacity for deep thinking); they only can play checkers

As can be seen, Russia's strategy is a wise strategy: let time work for Russia: the longer it takes, the better for Russia, as then Russia can, so to say, "kill 2+ birds with one stone"...
Ie. let the Winter take avenge for the sanctions, incl. the high inflation. high energy and food bills in the West cause poverty and civilian unrest in many of these idiotic Western countries who w/o shame sanctioned and discriminated Russia and Russian people, even Russians living in the West, even rich people (aka "oligarchs")... They all have now seen & first hand experienced the true face of the West...

So, what Russia does is a wise strategy, man, like in chess...