If you had to start over...

[KCalhoun]

OK Call it what you will. Not sure what you would call forward testing.
I see a pattern repeat in the market. Time after time when certain criteria are met, the market moves in a predictable direction. Not all the time but often enough that you could say it had a high probability. The next time I see that set-up I put on a trade. Have I back tested?

Or I read that a certain set-up has a high probability of working. I watch for that set-up in real time and once it has proven itself I trade it. Have I back tested?

What I haven't done is gone back in time with any kind of program. A few years ago I tried Vectorvest and there was a backtesting program that I played around with but I never found a strategy that I liked. What I found is that it was too easy to adjust criteria to get to the answer you wanted, but changing the start time or the market didn't give consistent results.

So I'm saying that I haven't used back testing. If experience in the market and using what seems to work is backtesting then I'm guilty of back testing.

A good example intraday is the 10am pivot. The market consistently reverses (or at minimum pulls back from its current trend) at 10am daily, give or take a few minutes.

 

[easymon1]

The markets always immediatly react to numbers,

but sometimes in the wrong direction first and its essential to know for a trader to wait for the market to reverse.

That would depend on the timeframe of chart that the trader is playing.

A 30 second, a 1 minute, a 5 minute chart can show some very nice intraday rides based on triggers to buy or sell to enter based solely on the price action of those charts while the big boys are sloshing their elephant herds around the landscape.

Action. I loves action. Setup/Trigger pairs as well as all kinda other 'methods' work very nicely when there's action imho. I am not caring predictions or pundits pontificating, just show me a better version of one of these and I'm ready to enter if a S/T Pair occurs and if not, I relax and take no action until it do.

https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?day=today
https://global-premium.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=global-premium&lid=0

 

[David's faith]

That would depend on the timeframe of chart that the trader is playing.

A 30 second, a 1 minute, a 5 minute chart can show some very nice intraday rides based on triggers to buy or sell to enter based solely on the price action of those charts while the big boys are sloshing their elephant herds around the landscape.

Action. I loves action. Setup/Trigger pairs as well as all kinda other 'methods' work very nicely when there's action imho. I am not caring predictions or pundits pontificating, just show me a better version of one of these and I'm ready to enter if a S/T Pair occurs and if not, I relax and take no action until it do.

https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?day=today
https://global-premium.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=global-premium&lid=0

My fav is this one:
https://m.investing.com/economic-calendar/

 

[easymon1]

 

[Liam2022]

Where do you fit planning and back testing?
I suppose it would be in statistics.
I would want to learn how the market works and how is the best way for me to profit from it.

Me too!

 

[murray t turtle]

Let's say you lost your edge and you had to start all over again. In which of these topics would you invest the most time into? I am asking because we have a newcomer with basic knowledge in all of them, yet not deep enough to start out. Ofc your style/personality does not fit his etc so it is not of much use but I find the question quite entertaining anyways do I just post it here.

%%
All of those except 2nd ;
risk control +all kinds of giving trumps the 2nd also.
Also while plenty of things /businesses are seasonal\ that 's not really ''losing an edge''
I'm not saying you implied that was losing an edge, just saying..............................
Shooting ducks is a seasonal thing in US anyway, may differ in Argentina LOL + true {Edit= good question]

 

[charlotte_daily]

Hard to say but, risk management, and TA come to my mind.

 

[benjamincohen177]

Price action, and psychology for sure.

 

[Lee-me]

Just psychology, as I struggled the most with it.