If you had to start over...

[rb7]

By watching the market for the last few decades.
By reading what works for other traders.
By trial and error. Lots of error.

So, if you watched the market for the last few decades, it's a form of backtesting.
Backtesting is simply to look at the past to see if the same can repeat in the future.

 

[deaddog]

So, if you watched the market for the last few decades, it's a form of backtesting.
Backtesting is simply to look at the past to see if the same can repeat in the future.

OK Call it what you will. Not sure what you would call forward testing.
I see a pattern repeat in the market. Time after time when certain criteria are met, the market moves in a predictable direction. Not all the time but often enough that you could say it had a high probability. The next time I see that set-up I put on a trade. Have I back tested?

Or I read that a certain set-up has a high probability of working. I watch for that set-up in real time and once it has proven itself I trade it. Have I back tested?

What I haven't done is gone back in time with any kind of program. A few years ago I tried Vectorvest and there was a backtesting program that I played around with but I never found a strategy that I liked. What I found is that it was too easy to adjust criteria to get to the answer you wanted, but changing the start time or the market didn't give consistent results.

So I'm saying that I haven't used back testing. If experience in the market and using what seems to work is backtesting then I'm guilty of back testing.

 

[Arnie]

I voted Portfolio management. If statistics worked over the short period (daytrading) we'd all be rich.
Also, if I had to start over I would do what I do now and focus on longer time frames.
None of it works if you're not disciplined.

 

[Claudia Costa]

I voted Portfolio management. If statistics worked over the short period (daytrading) we'd all be rich.
Also, if I had to start over I would do what I do now and focus on longer time frames.
None of it works if you're not disciplined.

Agreed, A person needs to be disciplined and patient if such a situation occurs.

 

[Sprout]

If reference to statistics, this is an interesting post of a great mathematics timeline for the math geek in all of us;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570558826495221760

 

[bamboos]

Let's say you lost your edge and you had to start all over again. In which of these topics would you invest the most time into? I am asking because we have a newcomer with basic knowledge in all of them, yet not deep enough to start out. Ofc your style/personality does not fit his etc so it is not of much use but I find the question quite entertaining anyways do I just post it here.

I would go straight to a market maker, broker, or bank's backoffice to work and gather information on how the wheel plays; then, statistics.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Let's say you lost your edge and you had to start all over again. In which of these topics would you invest the most time into? I am asking because we have a newcomer with basic knowledge in all of them, yet not deep enough to start out. Ofc your style/personality does not fit his etc so it is not of much use but I find the question quite entertaining anyways do I just post it here.

I know this is EliteTrader.com but for me, the real missing link has always been macro fundamental analysis. Some of the greatest traders of all time have been gurus at this, and it's easy to learn.

Starting over, I would learn this first and then very basic TA.

But of course, risk management is the foundation. It must be mastered before anything else.

 

[David's faith]

I know this is EliteTrader.com but for me, the real missing link has always been macro fundamental analysis. Some of the greatest traders of all time have been gurus at this, and it's easy to learn.

Starting over, I would learn this first and then very basic TA.

But of course, risk management is the foundation. It must be mastered before anything else.

It is sorta part of a correlation matrix because it influences Forex and with forex it influences equities. But I agree. Most greenhorns never actually read a FOMC statement bythemselves, or dig into nonfarm payrolls etc which should be a very basic thing to learn

 

[easymon1]

read a FOMC statement bythemselves, or dig into nonfarm payrolls etc

I put trading time into PA and stats to trade fast charts which factor in the market perturbing information that spawns from reports and news on a millisecond by basis continually.
1) Besides knowing when they are released to the unwashed masses, What three things would you say are of primary importance to be learned from FOMC statements and nonfarm payrolls etc. Why?
2) How can study of the above information lead a trader to Which charts to look at?

 

[David's faith]

I put trading time into PA and stats to trade fast charts which factor in the market perturbing information that spawns from reports and news on a millisecond by basis continually.
1) Besides knowing when they are released to the unwashed masses, What three things would you say are of primary importance to be learned from FOMC statements and nonfarm payrolls etc. Why?
2) How can study of the above information lead a trader to Which charts to look at?

In the years of 2014-2019 everybody had a gut feeling of the US beeing in an economic slowdown (everybody had worries at least). But what counts to the market are "official numbers" which were okay or even good in these times. To read the FOMC statement was essential to predict upcoming QE (and later the "not QE"). To see how hawkish or dovish the Fed would be was essential. The markets always immediatly react to numbers, but sometimes in the wrong direction first and its essential to know for a trader to wait for the market to reverse. Also carry trades, the easiest of all trades, are not doable without knowledge or forecast. That the Euro can close to always be shorted against the dollar was common knowledge, when to enter position was dependent on FED and ECB. No QE + strong Dollar = bad for equities and versa.
To your 2nd question I can not give you a clear answer. I was mostly a swing trader so daily and weekly charts were my game.