If you had to do it all over again.......

marketsurfer · Mar 22, 2015

NoDoji said:
I agree wholeheartedly. Consistently profitable traders predict only the odds of price movement on any given trade, not the movement itself.

When I enter a strong trend, I can predict the odds of continuation off my entry level are NN%, but I have no idea whatsoever whether that particular trade will be one of those NN% winning trades.

You realize what you are saying, right? That you have cracked the code to consistent profits.

You have this quantified and all the stats PhD's are still working on it.

Seriously!?

Surf

candles · Mar 22, 2015

None of the TA crowd can actually prove that they can make money with it (only ever hindsight stuff), and Surf probably can't prove that TA doesn't work.
Best just to agree to disagree?! lol

dbphoenix · Mar 22, 2015

candles said:
None of the TA crowd can actually prove that they can make money with it (only ever hindsight stuff) . . .

Posted at 0733 Friday:

And what happened thereafter:

candles · Mar 22, 2015

lol. You posted a range.
Whatever happened after that, yout would have come back and claimed that you 'called it'

If you ever want any credit, you'll have to make a real call like the guys in the ES thread.
I'll leave you all too it. I've seen this argument about 80 times, and nobody ever 'mans up' and so its never resolved.

dbphoenix · Mar 22, 2015

candles said:
lol. You posted a range.
Whatever happened after that, yout would have come back and claimed that you 'called it'
If you ever want any credit, you'll have to make a real call like the guys in the ES thread.
I'll leave you all too it. I've seen this argument about 80 times, and nobody ever 'mans up' and so its never resolved.

It's not a question of calling anything but of noting the conditions for a trade. If you don't know how to trade a breakout, then it's up to you to learn how.

As for making "real calls like the guys in the ES thread", if I were making and acting upon those calls, I'd be broke (aside from the fact that there is no such thing as a "real call" on a message board).

justrading · Mar 22, 2015

marketsurfer said:
You realize what you are saying, right? That you have cracked the code to consistent profits.

You have this quantified and all the stats PhD's are still working on it.

Seriously!?

Surf

Surf, I am basically sympathetic to your position. The likes of Brooks who go blah blah blah without a single statistic to support their position are full of it. If some people can flog their methods every chance they get, complete with links to other forums, you have as much right to advance your POV. Just don't make a nuisance of yourself in the journals.

But your fixation with PhDs and academic research is nonsense. Even if I tried, I couldn't fuck up like LTCM, so let's give the academics a rest. Real world traders, without unlimited capital, grinding it out day after day. That's the only thing worth discussing on ET.

marketsurfer · Mar 22, 2015

dbphoenix said:
It's not a question of calling anything but of noting the conditions for a trade. If you don't know how to trade a breakout, then it's up to you to learn how.

As for making "real calls like the guys in the ES thread", if I were making and acting upon those calls, I'd be broke (aside from the fact that there is no such thing as a "real call" on a message board).

If it didnt break out it wouldnt be a break out. All you, and others like you, is post the past as if it was some kind of revelation. I dont get it

marketsurfer · Mar 22, 2015

justrading said:
Surf, I am basically sympathetic to your position. The likes of Brooks who go blah blah blah without a single statistic to support their position are full of it. If some people can flog their methods every chance they get, complete with links to other forums, you have as much right to advance your POV. Just don't make a nuisance of yourself in the journals.

But your fixation with PhDs and academic research is nonsense. Even if I tried, I couldn't fuck up like LTCM, so let's give the academics a rest. Real world traders, without unlimited capital, grinding it out day after day. That's the only thing worth discussing on ET.

That's why my mentors are PhDs who actually trade. Good points otherwise. Surf

dbphoenix · Mar 22, 2015

marketsurfer said:
If it didnt break out it wouldnt be a break out. All you, and others like you, is post the past as if it was some kind of revelation. I dont get it

It had broken out when I posted the chart.

briana · Mar 22, 2015

dbphoenix said:
TA is not the use of past price and volume to make predictions about future price.

TA is the study of price behavior. What the trader does as a result of that study is outside the purview of TA.

Whether or not any of this is germane to the thread is up to the OP. I'm not particularly interested in yet another of the many threads that are about mktsrfr.

DB, I have a question. While I'm not new to TA, I have a lot to learn and your following quote confuses me, and I'm sure would confuse others: "TA is not the use of past price and volume to make predictions about future price".

Maybe I'm misreading, but, what about "measured moves" and should price targets based on supply/demand (TA) be thrown out? Thanks.