If you had to do it all over again.......

OTOH, if one can't tell in real time whether or not price is rising above the level of a range, he should probably investigate opportunities in the food-service industry.

If he can't tell whether or not price is moving sideways (ranging), waste management is a possible alternative.
 
dbphoenix said:
Donna doesn't spend much time here (she has a life). In the meantime, here's one example of determining context and trading reversals in a range and a breakout from a range:

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db, do you have any expectations of this breakout given that it has gone the distance equivalent to the hight of the congestion range and retraced by the same amount?

Do we now assume a trend following stance or expect a new range? Thanks.
 
xandman said:
db, do you have any expectations of this breakout given that it has gone the distance equivalent to the hight of the congestion range and retraced by the same amount?

Do we now assume a trend following stance or expect a new range? Thanks.
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Once it broke out, I didn't have any expectations at all. I just let it go until it was done. We'll see how things look Sunday night. But since we're only 50pts away from the upper limit of the weekly trend channel, I anticipate some effort to reach it before it starts ranging again. Last time we were up here, we hung out for eight days. Time before that, six (after we got off that overbought condition). Or we could just plunge like a stone. Can you stand the suspense? Isn't it fun?
 
Things that I wish I had of known when I started: understand right from the start that nobody can forecast what the market (any market) will do - anybody who says otherwise is lying. Study statistics and probability and read everything by Ralph Vince. There are no patterns and no hidden order to the markets. You cannot buy the answer, you have to do it all yourself - don't go to seminars and don't read market adviser letters and all that related male bovine excrement. Don't ever have an opinion about the market, you will be wrong much more than you will be right. Ignore fundamentals and volume, both are worthless. Trade highly liquid futures only, use the leverage. Your only question must be this: "does it work?" nothing else has any meaning. And last but definitely not least: there can be no possibility of return without risk.
 
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Truly think logically about this hindsight advice. You will see the incredible naïveté. Have u received any PMs yet inviting you to a private but free price action trading room??? LMFAO!
 
NoDoji said:
I've found that once you do thorough statistical analyses of price action patterns in various context, you'll find one or more positive expectancy setups. (By "setup" I mean a price action pattern within specific context.)

My earliest forays into trading strategies involved indicators. This was moderately useful, but without an understanding of price action, I put too much faith in indicators to the extent that I traded my opinion about what price should do instead of making my trading decisions off what price was actually doing.

Once I learned about price action, I realized that indicators are unnecessary, though they can be very useful in helping define context.

In a nutshell: Learn about price action first (Brooks, Volman, Beggs, etc.), then investigate whether any indicators are useful or even necessary at all.

And definitely trade in a sim environment until your trading is as relaxed, automatic, and consistent.
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Im familiar with Brooks and Volman, but dont' know Beggs, can you please link some of his-her work?

Thx
 
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