If you enter a high-probability trade and then the charts movement goes to 50/50, what do you do?

tlatoani said:
No, your ability to exit the trade, or not, is the only possible edge on any entry. The past does not equal the future.
More...

The first edge is already to find an entry that has a high probability to be very good.
The second edge is to find an exit that has a high probability to be very good.
The third edge is to know where to put your stop.
Each action you take is a potential edge that influences the final result.

You can calculate statistically with high probability on 1000 trades the outcome of your trades. I can tell with high probability where I will be statistically after another 100 trades. In fact I know for 100% sure that the final result of thenext 100 trades will be profitable. So foresight, not hindsight.
I never had a series of 100 trades that ended with losing money on the total result of the serie in over 10 years.

Past can tell you with high probability within a certain range where you will end. Definitelly better than 50/50. 50/50 can apply for 1 trade, but traders don't trade 1 trade, they trade hundreds or even thousands of trades, and that changes everything.
 
The most incredible traders that have made vast fortunes and thrived for decades in the markets boiled down the meat of how they do it into something very simple:

If price does not move in the anticipated direction and without decent velocity for that particular market - they simply exit right away. When a trade behaves great from the start they pile on the size and let it run.
 
Deuteronomy_24_7 said:
I'm not sure I understand the OP... he entered without any exit plan, so now he's confused? :wtf:
More...

For now, my entries and exits are technically based off the same signals, since my position shouldn't inform whether I think the market will go up or down from here. Only my risk management should inform whether I should exit when there's a lack of a signal. I suppose it's just a rehashing of the old "Should I take profit?" conversation.
 
No, your ability to exit the trade, or not, is the only possible edge on any entry. The past does not equal the future.
_____________________________________________________________________________

True, my number one job is taking loses! Entry & exit signals have little to do with long term success.
 
Everyone on that thread has a 3 to 6 Sharpe.
___________________________________________________________________________

First of all the Sharpe is not the best model for looking at performance. I like Calmar since max draw downs are very visible. Point #2, anyone can easily claim superb returns -and often do. Without audited tax records to verify claims it means nothing.
 
comagnum said:
Everyone on that thread has a 3 to 6 Sharpe.
___________________________________________________________________________

First of all the Sharpe is not the best model for looking at performance. I like Calmar since max draw downs are very visible. Point #2, anyone can easily claim superb returns -and often do. Without audited tax records to verify claims it means nothing.
More...

In which cases will there be a maximum difference in "rating" between a Calmar or Sharpe ratio?
 
comagnum said:
Everyone on that thread has a 3 to 6 Sharpe.
___________________________________________________________________________

First of all the Sharpe is not the best model for looking at performance. I like Calmar since max draw downs are very visible. Point #2, anyone can easily claim superb returns -and often do. Without audited tax records to verify claims it means nothing.
More...

Madoff pretty much proved audited tax records can also be very suspect
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top