If you don't primarily use price/fundamentals/news to trade, what do you use?

oldtime · Oct 15, 2012

90% of what I trade off of is nothing more than my unrealized profit/loss. Just about anything else will do for the other 10% as long as you don't stick with it too long.

Handle123 is right, these methods are like fashion, they come and everybody talks about them, then they go, and years later are rediscovered, or sold as something new under a different name.

marketsurfer · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from Handle123:

TA fails for you and many others, but not for those who have taken years to know how to become good at trading using them. I have spent years, decades, at many different avenues .

Survivorship bias.

jack hershey · Oct 15, 2012

I've used price drivers since 1957.

That is, I use a combination of 10 to 12 inputs that occur prior (with 100% certainty) to an actual directional price move in any market that has sufficient liquidity. One must anticipate, in order to participate in any market.

Price is a lagging indicator of price.

All tradable instruments have many fundamental and technical information streams. Some are originating at the market place and some are derived from leading signals that come from the market place.

Usually I post in a list type manner. Yesterday I posted 12 items as the complete requirements for having a complete market view of how the market works. Soon, my post was deleted.

I put panes or highlights on my display and often link the panes or highlights with a common leading variable.

If you wish, you can pick up about 20 of these elsewhere in ET by going to the thread where they are being shared.

Tonkadad · Oct 15, 2012

Quote from jack hershey:

Price is a lagging indicator of price.

See that's why I am having a problem, I always thought that it was
"price is a lagging indicator of price." not "price is a lagging indicator of price."

When the student is ready the teacher appears.

emg · Oct 16, 2012

whoever can break the sound barrier will win the game, and that is the HFT goal. Breaking the sound barrier requires advanced math.

Those that place stop orders give HFTs the advantage to break the sound barrier.

Placing stop orders are for losers and small traders need to because they are poor.

jack hershey · Oct 16, 2012

Quote from emg:

whoever can break the sound barrier will win the game, and that is the HFT goal. Breaking the sound barrier requires advanced math.

Those that place stop orders give HFTs the advantage to break the sound barrier.

Placing stop orders are for losers and small traders need to because they are poor.

Lets say you have a platform to watch.

Lets go further. You can do subtraction.

No one looks at the units or the tens positions. The hundreds are interesting and the housands are important.

Lets say, also, you know where to look and when its the right time to look.

So what is your problem?

You trade chicken feed.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3652747

Did this trade take 20K of margin or 60K of margin?

Have you ever heard of frontrunning big money?

If you see something on the T&S, do you know what that price driver means on the DOM? Do you know what orders you saw added are going to be pulled? Do you know how to subtract those orders before they are pulled?

Is subtraction the higher math of addition?

marketsurfer · Oct 16, 2012

Quote from Mr_You:

Hmm...

Maybe marketsurfers infamous "Price Drivers" are actually specific market participants that move the price. Let me tell you, its so much fun guessing what people mean. Uggh

Yes, that is one aspect. The PD systems goal is to syntheses multiple price drivers, assign weights, then scale the index to determine a long or short bias that has nothing to do with current or past price. We believe price is irrelevant until after the entry.

NoDoji · Oct 16, 2012

Quote from Tonkadad:

I always thought that it was "price is a lagging indicator of price." not "price is a lagging indicator of price."

OMG, help me, I'm going to die shortly of terminal constipation because I no longer have an ass, having totally laughed it off.

Spectre2007 · Oct 16, 2012

SP500 index calculation ---> who calculates and publishes it to all the newsfeeds...

SP500 Futures ---> futures move at spread from cash...

1) if you can calculate the index ahead of anyone else using the individual components then you can move futures in direction of the next calc.

2)If your going to profit on the variability of the spread between cash and futures you can execute program buying or selling on individual index components to bring the spread inline.

which ever side is pressured first drives the other.

jack hershey · Oct 16, 2012

Quote from Spectre2007:

SP500 index calculation ---> who calculates and publishes it to all the newsfeeds...

SP500 Futures ---> futures move at spread from cash...

1) if you can calculate the index ahead of anyone else using the individual components then you can move futures in direction of the next calc.

2)If your going to profit on the variability of the spread between cash and futures you can execute program buying or selling on individual index components to bring the spread inline.

which ever side is pressured first drives the other.

FYI.

THe Premium was set daily at a web location.

the location was indexarb.com.

If you have cruised timber and have your estimating booklet of tables, you can make money buying and selling timber.

Lets suppose you want to make money in markets.

Just set up a price driver relation that uses the Premium and the index.

Why not skip using the Premium and make a substitute for it?

Thats what happened historically.

smart money has this 'tell.

this means that you can be "pushed" by smart money by frontrunning smart money.

emg will tell you to go to college to take advanced math.

an alternative is to just frontrun smart money using a display that shows this phenomena. The leading nature is about 20 to 30 seconds.

I use a scale that is neutral vis a vis the truncation of the front month of the index. So I color the bars (in an OTR pace) to show the frontrunning sentiment that will be taking shape soon.

This means I can carve turns as the smart money sentiment shifts from one side to the other (in the near future).

In math parlance, I begin with functions. I combine them with operators. This gives me indicators. The indicators have signals.

My signal is the bars passing from one side of a neutral balance line in terms of sentiment of smart money and the truncating Premium substitute.(they also change color for more neural impact if my focus is somewhere else (I have 10 to 12 leading price drivers).

All of the math is public at this time.