If you could KIND OF predict turning points, could the remainder be done with money management?

[speedo]

Depends on what you mean by "turning point". If you are referring to picking tops and bottoms of significant runs, that's a tough game but there are some who do it well. Most of my trades are trend pullback entries and as such, I am anticipating price to turn back in the direction of the trend as defined by my time frames. For this or ANY methodology, position (money) management is critical.

 

[panzerman]

Imagine for a moment that markets could give you a suggestion of what they were about to do on a tiny timeframe, sporadically, when price hits certain points.

If you could predict direction correctly, even something like 65% of the time, you could rule the world eventually because of all the money you would make.

 

[speedo]

If you could predict direction correctly, even something like 65% of the time, you could rule the world eventually because of all the money you would make.

This is something which also requires a definitive context. The great majority of my entries go in my desired direction after entry, however of these trades, some will result in a gain, some will come back and scratch me out and some will come back and result in a loss. Trade management is key.

 

[tomorton]

If you could predict direction correctly, even something like 65% of the time, you could rule the world eventually because of all the money you would make.

I can, that's a trend, and I will........

 

[just21]

Use short options if you are imprecise.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Making money on the long term trading is more a function of what you do with your trades after you have entered than when you enter.

Maybe a more suitable title would be "if you could KIND OF predict turning points, could the remainder be done withOUT money management?" to which the answer would most certainly be NO.

Of course that wouldn't be possible.

For the most part, the market does kind of give you a subtle hint, or two, when its daily macro move is about to shift. -- If you know, of course, what to loosely, generally look for and expect based on your assumptions and a combination of other dynamic variables.

The best traders know and realize and sense this.
Even if you are an absolutely horrible, shakey, mentally unstable trader...you can still kind of semi-win overall with good money and trade management.

What you describe is exactly what I am talking about.

My clarifying question to the OP would be "...the rest of *what*???"
Has a position been *entered* on the turn? Or is it that a prior, trend-based *entry* is in fact looking for an out?? Dunno!

Creating the position on the turn.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Chasing turning points and focusing on shorter time-fame charts and faster pay-back times are how new traders go broke.

Well, alright, not all new traders. Just about 90%.

I think selecting turning points is probably possible on short term and long term for different reasons.

 

[Spectre2007]

donchian channels
VWAP
ATR
Trendlines
S/R levels
volume/market profile
EMA crossovers at the above levels

All help for picking turning points (statistical outliers). A pure efficient trader will will end up selling peaks and buying valleys..everyone else who trades in the middle is fighting with each other.. (consolidations)

 

[Spectre2007]

outliers

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Use short options if you are imprecise.

How does this differ from scaling into a position? I am seriously asking, I don't know much about options.