If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

[dbphoenix]

Quote from timokrates:

My problem is how to bring the general approach, the daily plan and the setups together in context of a global backtesting.

Or is it only necessary to backtest the setups themselves?

Well, there are no "setups" per se, and I don't mean that in an "it's all semantics" way. I mean that the only "setup" is the retracement after the reversal or breakout. Calling it a "setup" is over-glamorization.

But aside from that, all you have to do is determine the trend of the market, which you did, find your place in it, which you did, then find your entry into that trend, which you did. That's all there is to it.

 

[timokrates]

Thanks...

Even if you also mentioned this quite a few times, it's always great to get repetition in context.

At a point it should be all about doing it - or hire oneself to really do it - as you said in the "How to do it" sticky. Obviously this should have been done at the beginning. But also if you criss-cross your way to that point, it seems also doable - not the most time-effective way of course...

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from timokrates:

Thanks...

Even if you also mentioned this quite a few times, it's always great to get repetition in context.

At a point it should be all about doing it - or hire oneself to really do it - as you said in the "How to do it" sticky. Obviously this should have been done at the beginning. But also if you criss-cross your way to that point, it seems also doable - not the most time-effective way of course...

No, but we learn what we need to learn when we need to learn it, which is why the "school" setup is so wrong. I'm sure there are people who looked at Wyckoff, for example, when they were just starting and thought that it was essentially old-fart nonsense. But after a year they might go back to it and find suddenly that the old fart knew what he was talking about.

 

[timokrates]

Quote from dbphoenix:

No, but we learn what we need to learn when we need to learn it, which is why the "school" setup is so wrong. I'm sure there are people who looked at Wyckoff, for example, when they were just starting and thought that it was essentially old-fart nonsense. But after a year they might go back to it and find suddenly that the old fart knew what he was talking about.

As a historian - at least I studied this once - I'm a big fan of old farts.

All this could fuel the discussion if there is something like progress in mans history in general. This is off topic of course...

In terms of Wyckoff it is also great to see the laws in its purest way - even if it's still a tough read for someone how is not a natural speaker. Therefore I'm thankful that you have presented it again and again on a silver plate...

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from timokrates:

As a historian - at least I studied this once - I'm a big fan of old farts.

All this could fuel the discussion if there is something like progress in mans history in general. This is off topic of course...

In terms of Wyckoff it is also great to see the laws in its purest way - even if it's still a tough read for someone how is not a natural speaker. Therefore I'm thankful that you have presented it again and again on a silver plate...

No, no progress. Not in terms of traders.

But getting back to trend, if you continue to have trouble with it, get rid of all the lines and just look at it. See if you can determine the stride of it, particularly the middle of it, like the arrow that people draw through the hearts they've carved on trees or drawn on walls. If you can, then plot upper and lower lines parallel to it and draw them back from it until you reach what appear to be the upper and lower limits of what is now a channel.

This is what people who don't understand trend and trend channels fail to understand. It isn't about the specifics of how one draws the trendline or the trend channel, it's about that line around which and away from which traders trade. If you can see that "mean" line, you'll never get lost, and you'll never have any trouble drawing a useful trend channel.

 

[yertleturtle]

Quote from dbphoenix:

No, no progress. Not in terms of traders.

But getting back to trend, if you continue to have trouble with it, get rid of all the lines and just look at it. See if you can determine the stride of it, particularly the middle of it, like the arrow that people draw through the hearts they've carved on trees or drawn on walls. If you can, then plot upper and lower lines parallel to it and draw them back from it until you reach what appear to be the upper and lower limits of what is now a channel.

This is what people who don't understand trend and trend channels fail to understand. It isn't about the specifics of how one draws the trendline or the trend channel, it's about that line around which and away from which traders trade. If you can see that "mean" line, you'll never get lost, and you'll never have any trouble drawing a useful trend channel.

Any chance you can post a chart with a mean line? I've been trying to come up with hard rules for drawing channels so I don't find myself curve fitting and creating trades in the middle of nowhere.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from yertleturtle:

Any chance you can post a chart with a mean line? I've been trying to come up with hard rules for drawing channels so I don't find myself curve fitting and creating trades in the middle of nowhere.

I've posted quite a few. Just do a search using my name and "mean". That shouldn't yield too many. Or try "update". And if you still have trouble, just plot a regression line. Just about any charting site can do that for you. It may not be exact but it ought to be close.

 

[timokrates]

Quote from dbphoenix:

But getting back to trend, if you continue to have trouble with it, get rid of all the lines and just look at it. See if you can determine the stride of it, particularly the middle of it, like the arrow that people draw through the hearts they've carved on trees or drawn on walls. If you can, then plot upper and lower lines parallel to it and draw them back from it until you reach what appear to be the upper and lower limits of what is now a channel.

This is what people who don't understand trend and trend channels fail to understand. It isn't about the specifics of how one draws the trendline or the trend channel, it's about that line around which and away from which traders trade. If you can see that "mean" line, you'll never get lost, and you'll never have any trouble drawing a useful trend channel.

Wow, this is very good.

Usually I was drawing the channel and the middle line after the fact. I always tried to find a kind of anchor, a minor high or low for that.

Would you agree, that the principle is very similiar to what you described finding the midpont of ranges - an area "traders call home"?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from timokrates:

Wow, this is very good.

Usually I was drawing the channel and the middle line after the fact. I always tried to find a kind of anchor, a minor high or low for that.

Would you agree, that the principle is very similiar to what you described finding the midpont of ranges - an area "traders call home"?

Yes. A trend channel is just a diagonal trading range. That's why the channel forms in the first place. Of course you have to have a starting point, or points, but once you have that you can check what you have against reality by tracking the mean rather than -- or in addition to -- the limits.

 

[DaGabaGoo]

Quote from dbphoenix:

So here we are. Again. Only a few points from a new (30-day) high. Gurubabble would most likely say that price could go either way, which, technically, is true. However, we've been up here since midnight, in an extremely tight range. Though we could fall, it seems to me that if we were going to fall, we would have, or at least tested the downside.

This isn't to say I'd go long right here, but neither would I be surprised by a breakout to the upside. If we do, that implies a try for the upper limit of this trend channel, at around 3400, and we have three weeks to get there.

DB - Can you give a little more insight about time, or at least point me to where Wycoff wrote about it. tia