If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

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Quote from niko:

Kinda messy start! Db, in an earlier message you commented about the problems with the current context in regard to try to surf this mess, my question is. Do you arrive to that conclusion based on the fact that the 60 min is in such a tight TR, that makes whatever one trades inside it a bad bet?.

I mean I can see that we are in the chop this morning, but I am trying to prevent myself of taking that first bad trade that can be avoided if the context is analysed appropriately.
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It's not a question of context. It's a question of whether one wants to trade or to make money. Surfing is fine as an exercise, particularly an exercise in discipline. But as a mode of trading, it's nuts. If nothing else, it encourages tunnel vision, and this thread is about the opposite.

This does not mean that one should relax with regard to focus, but there's a difference between focus and tunnel vision. This morning, for example, has been about 78. But what is going on around 78? What does one do with that activity, the efforts to leave it both to the upside and downside?
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

It's not a question of context. It's a question of whether one wants to trade or to make money. Surfing is fine as an exercise, particularly an exercise in discipline. But as a mode of trading, it's nuts. If nothing else, it encourages tunnel vision, and this thread is about the opposite.

This does not mean that one should relax with regard to focus, but there's a difference between focus and tunnel vision. This morning, for example, has been about 78. But what is going on around 78? What does one do with that activity, the efforts to leave it both to the upside and downside?
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Of course 78 when you look at it is the mainstay of activity.
I was focused on the attempts to break 80, would that still be valid?
 
Quote from bmwhendrix:

DB, Am I correct that the possible reversal we see now happening between support at 60 and resistance at 70 would be a kind of no mans land trade that would be higher risk?
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The range is from 60 to 90, at least on the September contract. Therefore, a test of 60 is an excellent opportunity to go long. As for what to do afterward, that's what the thread is about.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

It's not a question of context. It's a question of whether one wants to trade or to make money. Surfing is fine as an exercise, particularly an exercise in discipline. But as a mode of trading, it's nuts. If nothing else, it encourages tunnel vision, and this thread is about the opposite.

This does not mean that one should relax with regard to focus, but there's a difference between focus and tunnel vision. This morning, for example, has been about 78. But what is going on around 78? What does one do with that activity, the efforts to leave it both to the upside and downside?
More...

Pardon my ignorance but what is surfing ?
Is that trading parlance ?
 
For what it's worth, here is the live commentary I made to myself for the first 90 minutes of NQ today

If anyone has any observations I'd welcome them. I'm trying to couch what I see in the correct manner.

Thanks



14:30 At the open sellers immediately push the price down,

14:34 We now have a pull back touching the 50% mark. Lets see if it moves down again.

14:36 No its pushed past the 50% so no shorts here

This i getting messy now, no clear direction. Buyers have pushed price up to the midpoint of 80 a couple of times now but fail t prevail at present.
14:45 Looks like they are going to make another attempt.

14:47 Yes they are making another attempt, this time they make a HH

14:48 OK so we are seeing HH’s and HL’s at present. No sellers have pushed back throught the last swing low.

14:53 Buyers make another attempt to push up and make another HH

14:55 Rejected soundly by sellers - straight back down, nearly reaching the LOD.

14:56 This is resembling a limp dick here, no clear direction at all

14:58 Hit 50% of down move, lets see if it moves back down? No pushed passed 50, no short

15:01 This is look like sellers have the edge at the moment

15:02 And down it is pushed past the LOD. Will this continue to 70? Not much in the way of resistance on the way

15:04 Still downward, no break of SL

15:06 Will there be any reaction from buyers/short sellers at 70? or are we headed straight through t 60?

15:08 Still no SL break.

15:12 Still going, looks like we might test 60. Will there be a strong reaction here?

15:18 60 here we come. No SL break

15:21 SL break before 60

15:23 Not sure what is happening here now, doesn’t seem to be any strength on the part of buyers appearing

15:25 Resuming downwards movement, no buyers yet.

15:28 Double bottom. Is this the signal buyers are going to react to?

15:33 Buyers have come in but very lackluster, or is this short sellers unloading ?

15:34 Buyers showing more interest now.

15:36 Approaching 70, Will this act as resistance or just a blip for the buyers?

15:41 Price stalling beneath 70 but no pullback, sellers not coming in here yet. Signs of strength?

15:52 So we have reached 70 and are having some sideways movement and a breach of the DL, but still no sellers appearing yet. Still just about made a HH too. I’m interpreting this as a sign of strength and possible move up still to come

15:54 Another HH, But I’m thinking will there be another test of 60?

16:00 Price continues to hug 70
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

It's not a question of context. It's a question of whether one wants to trade or to make money. Surfing is fine as an exercise, particularly an exercise in discipline. But as a mode of trading, it's nuts. If nothing else, it encourages tunnel vision, and this thread is about the opposite.

This does not mean that one should relax with regard to focus, but there's a difference between focus and tunnel vision. This morning, for example, has been about 78. But what is going on around 78? What does one do with that activity, the efforts to leave it both to the upside and downside?
More...

Thanks, I have been trying to add context and avoiding tunnel vision, still on the journey. And as you say, surfing has helped me a lot with discipline, I don't have horrible drawdowns anymore, hoping for the best, I have learned to cut my losses as fast as I can, now the hard part here is to keep the trades open.

Once in the trade, i always wait for the next RET, still working on some rules regarding when a that next RET looks more like a REV and a failed entry, guess 50% can help in NQ . The problem comes in three ways from what I have found so far.

1. After making a new H or L, and trying for another RET, sometimes this one comes in the form of a HL for shorts, LH for longs, If the S/D line holds i stay in, if it does not then I close. Sometimes the breaking of the line is just a deep poke and the trend goes back on its mary way, usually I miss this re-entry as it is faster than i can get used to. Trying to fix this.

2. By this time the trend must be visible in the 5 min chart, and I am trying to get away from the 1 min in order to look for signs of continuation in the 5 min, what could look like a REV that came out of nowhere is the RET for the 5 min players, I have tried to deal with this by defining a RET entry from the 5 min, in case I had exited the trade in the 1 min by mistake. Also a work in progress.

3. Wen reaching S or R, my thinking is always that I should let the trade open unless the S/D line is taken, but then I think I could also close the trade at R or S and grab the profits and wait in calm to see if I get a REV or a RET. Not sure about this just yet.

I was just thinking out loud about some issues I have, if you have any comment or reprimand I will be happy to read it :)
 
On the ndx the highest volume at price area is between 2964 and 2997, is one to assume on a retracement this could be a magnet for price to reach?
 
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