If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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My eval of today, starting with the daily, then hourly then minute.
If one has trouble determining the limits of a trading range, much less the midpoint of that range, it may be helpful to look at where price is settling, particularly if traders do not travel the same distance from that midpoint with each scouting expedition. The midpoint, or mean, is after all the anchor. It's "home". Traders may venture from it only a short distance. Or they may venture so far that they have to set up a new camp in a new location. But the call of home is powerful, and as long as the trader doesn't forget where it is, he is less likely to get lost.
This particular trading range has been pretty sloppy in terms of the limits of it. However, it's not difficult to determine the midpoint by focusing on where price comes to roost. Where did it settle Wednesday morning? Where did it settle Thursday morning? Where did it settle this morning? And how far away from that level did it venture to the downside on Wednesday? And then to the upside? And that hinge that's been forming since midnight. Where is its projected apex? How far will price venture from home? How can you tell when it's stretched to the limit and packs up its bags to go back?
This particular trading range has been pretty sloppy in terms of the limits of it. However, it's not difficult to determine the midpoint by focusing on where price comes to roost. Where did it settle Wednesday morning? Where did it settle Thursday morning? Where did it settle this morning? And how far away from that level did it venture to the downside on Wednesday? And then to the upside? And that hinge that's been forming since midnight. Where is its projected apex? How far will price venture from home? How can you tell when it's stretched to the limit and packs up its bags to go back?
Watching NQ Dec, 75.25 would mark a move out of the over night hinge. There is actually a hinge within a hinge, as on shorter bar intervals, a small hinge formed between 3:30 AM and 5:00 AM. Price is out of that one to the upside. Burt on a longer bar interval, there is a hinge that at its widest point was 53 - 83. At 74.75 just now, price has again tested the holding power of this coiling range, so a trip back across to the other side might be next.
As with all of these hinges, it will remain to be seen whether price exits one way or the other, and whether upon exiting, it keeps right on chugging, or does it do a U-Turn run the other way.
Given the duration of the prior range (June - September) and the tight coiling we've seen since the breakout, I would not be suprised to see this lead to the rallies continuation. I've observed nothing yet that would indicate to me that buyers are doing anything more than taking a breather.
But I'll keep watching price, because you never know.
As with all of these hinges, it will remain to be seen whether price exits one way or the other, and whether upon exiting, it keeps right on chugging, or does it do a U-Turn run the other way.
Given the duration of the prior range (June - September) and the tight coiling we've seen since the breakout, I would not be suprised to see this lead to the rallies continuation. I've observed nothing yet that would indicate to me that buyers are doing anything more than taking a breather.
But I'll keep watching price, because you never know.
I'd say one, with an effort to create a second, new one. Traders appear to want to create a range from 80 to 00, but they regularly return to homebase and reaffirm the midpoint of the 60-00 range. Eventually they may be able to separate themselves from the 60-80 anchor and move on into new territory. Like the Martians in War of the Worlds.
Kinda messy start! Db, in an earlier message you commented about the problems with the current context in regard to try to surf this mess, my question is. Do you arrive to that conclusion based on the fact that the 60 min is in such a tight TR, that makes whatever one trades inside it a bad bet?.
I mean I can see that we are in the chop this morning, but I am trying to prevent myself of taking that first bad trade that can be avoided if the context is analysed appropriately.
I mean I can see that we are in the chop this morning, but I am trying to prevent myself of taking that first bad trade that can be avoided if the context is analysed appropriately.
DB, Am I correct that the possible reversal we see now happening between support at 60 and resistance at 70 would be a kind of no mans land trade that would be higher risk?
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