If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

[dbphoenix]

So here we are. Again. Only a few points from a new (30-day) high. Gurubabble would most likely say that price could go either way, which, technically, is true. However, we've been up here since midnight, in an extremely tight range. Though we could fall, it seems to me that if we were going to fall, we would have, or at least tested the downside.

This isn't to say I'd go long right here, but neither would I be surprised by a breakout to the upside. If we do, that implies a try for the upper limit of this trend channel, at around 3400, and we have three weeks to get there.

 

[Hooti]

Quote from dbphoenix:

three weeks to get there.

to the end of the quarter?

 

[wegotnthtodo]

Last Friday High and Low:
3149
3130

Recent Range:
3145
3142 (Mid)
3140

Today Low:
3136

Is there any important level I'd missed out? I'm still unable to tell what can I do at certain price level like if we surpass 3145 I'm not sure what can I do as the price is so near to the top 3149.

P/s : Perhaps the best long entry already appeared at 8:56?

 

[fortydraws]

Quote from wegotnthtodo:

Last Friday High and Low:
3149
3130

NQ? Friday September 6, 2013?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from wegotnthtodo:

I'm still unable to tell what can I do at certain price level like if we surpass 3145 I'm not sure what can I do as the price is so near to the top 3149.

Perhaps someone can tell you the drill.

 

[fortydraws]

Quote from wegotnthtodo:

I'm still unable to tell what can I do at certain price level like if we surpass 3145 I'm not sure what can I do as the price is so near to the top 3149.

P/s : Perhaps the best long entry already appeared at 8:56?

Quote from fortydraws:

There is a process to learning this.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15896-how-do.html

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15535-developing-plan-trading-journal.html

You can follow the plan and have a real chance of figuring this out in months rather than years; or you can keep doing what everyone else seems to do and spend the next decade wondering why you're not getting it.

For example, you asked "how to know in real time." There is no way of knowing anything. This is a kinda game of chance. The idea is to find trades where the probability of one thing happening is greater than any of the alternatives. This is where S & R come in: You can't worry about all the transactions that are taking place every moment of the session. If a lower low occurs during a rally, but it is well below any nearby apparent R, then it may be a reversal, but it may just be a bit more of a pullback. Who knows? It is a 50/50 shot. So what do you do? Nothing at all. There is always a trade, but not the trade you want. Stand aside. Now, if it is a reversal, then your next opportunity to look for a trade will be when price declines to an S level. If it is not a reversal, you will know soon enough, because the rally toward R will resume.

If you spend the time to learn how price behaves, then this gets much easier. For example, everyday, before the market opens, I can pretty much tell you what two trades are most likely for me to take - a long & a short, where they each would take place, and probably a price range where I will be getting filled. Today things almost got away from me, but if you read my notes and look at the charts I posted this morning at least 60-90 minutes before the open, you should be able to see what the plan should have been.

If you are trading without a plan, you are just gambling. Perhaps this is all gambling. But you can gamble with an edge or you can gamble blindly. I see a lot of message board traders who seem to be doing a lot of flying blind, rather than circling the field, observing the activity below, and planning where they will land safely in that activity.

 

[wegotnthtodo]

Quote from fortydraws:

NQ? Friday September 6, 2013?

Yes, it's NQ Friday September 6, 2013 for EST.
The chart displays my time zone which should be 12 hours different from EST so it's midnight for me and it's September 7 midnight.

And thanks for the post above, it helps me to refresh my mind again.

 

[redbox]

Quote from dbphoenix:

So here we are. Again. Only a few points from a new (30-day) high. Gurubabble would most likely say that price could go either way, which, technically, is true. However, we've been up here since midnight, in an extremely tight range. Though we could fall, it seems to me that if we were going to fall, we would have, or at least tested the downside.

This isn't to say I'd go long right here, but neither would I be surprised by a breakout to the upside. If we do, that implies a try for the upper limit of this trend channel, at around 3400, and we have three weeks to get there.

Hi DB, Thanks for this thread.

I've got a question with regard to price bouncing around at a support or resistance level for an extended period of time.

In the past you have said price was trying to penetrate a resistance level for 18 hours, if it was going to push through it would have done so by now so a short is likely the LOLR.

However this morning price pushed up after a long time at that resistance level.

Is there a characteristic in this behavior that give some clues as to which way it might move ?

Thanks

 

[wegotnthtodo]

This is what I found to be useful while surfing TL thread "Trading in Foresight"．

There were a number of interesting PA features in today's chart. The supports at 1688 and 1708 have been mentioned, as were the position of the trendline and the resistance level at 1717, but nothing afterward. Trading in foresight entails locating whatever trading ranges and support and resistance levels are most likely to apply to the upcoming trading day, but foresight is also necessary during the trading day. The most obvious aspect has to do with price's behavior at S&R. But one must also be sensitive to climactic volume, lower highs and higher lows, how and where price is finding equilibrium, and hinges.

Here, for example, after testing 17, price dropped back to support at 08. It attempted to rally, but settled back down to 08. At the end of what might appear to most traders as drift but what was in fact a hinge, price dropped on a WTF, providing an entry just below 05 (if one were nodding off, the WTF acts as a wakeup call).

This is not to say that one should stay on edge throughout his trading day. But neither should he assume that just because price appears to be drifting it is in fact going nowhere, and relax to the point where he misses the opportunities that are provided. Perhaps a list of what to be on the lookout for may be helpful. In any case, staying alert will help translate crap into cool.

And guess what, interestingly the price today moved quite alike to the chart attached.
Btw, what is WTF?

 

[Gringo]

Quote from wegotnthtodo:

This is what I found to be useful while surfing TL thread "Trading in Foresight"．



And guess what, interestingly the price today moved quite alike to the chart attached.
Btw, what is WTF?

wtf=what the f'k.
It's when price out of the blue just drops dramatically. There is a pause in drop usually for a few seconds to a minute where the trader goes WTF just happened. The plunge then resumes dramatically again. Those with experience and alertness have known to take advantage of this phenomenon. It is not easy and it is not for the faint of heart. It has been referred to at times as the deep breath before the plunge however the acronym started causing confusion with Db's name and was vetoed.

Gringo