If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from stillgrinding:

Maybe this?
More...

Like that. There are three more, but entering after the third retracement entails higher price risk. Note also if one enters properly, every one of those retracements is an opportunity to pyramid for a total of eight contracts.

Incidentally, where you say "support broken", support is only tested.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

When you're face to face with the Hydra, stats aren't going to help you. You have to determine what it is you're thinking throughout the process. Not what you were thinking, but what you are thinking. Perhaps the only way of doing this will be to use a digital voice recorder. They're cheap these days. Today you would have started recording as soon as price broke out of its trading range at 1010.

Edit: "When you're face to face with the Hydra". Technically, that should be "face to faces".
More...

Thank you. I have performed a deep evaluation of my thinking while risking real money, the fact is that if i do not have some sort of stats to back up my decision I usually end up screwing up big, not because the rationale behind decision making is wrong but because I am unable to trust my decision after I am in the trade and end up exiting in the worst possible place.

I guess by now the Hydra is way to scary for me and my intellectual weapons is the confidence level I have in the setup (i.e. Some sort of probability). I hope I can overcome fear (have been doing what RN suggested some weeks ago about making a list, it ended up in stats by the way) and be able to think more clearly during price action reading with money on the line, or else I will end up writing algorithms again :(.
 
Quote from Redneck:

Niko,

Random thoughts

See if you can equate it (chop formation) to a time of day / time prior to an announcement/ low volume times

In stocks (recall I’m a stock tard) I find chop “typically” follows the morning session – so I've come to anticipate its arrival around 11:30 ish

10 – 15 min prior to FOMC announcements and alike

Summer, and prior to holidays are also high probability of chop (low volume times of year)

I also look to see if today is turning out to be inside/ outside day (of yesterday’s range)

Low volume times (low volume in both the buying and selling) are notorious – so I’m constantly evaluating the current pressure being exerted

Also evaluate the current action - to action that’s already transpired throughout the day

When it appears unexpectedly (not around previous S/R) – it usually takes 3, sometimes 4 stop outs till I get a clue (always be open to it)


Final thought;

For a daily bar to get printed, a H/L and in-between are created – keep an eye on the time of day, and progress of the daily bar’s creation (admittedly this is quite subjective).

But every trad-able instrument has a personality – watching for traits – you may find one..., or two that provide insight


eta

Chop is either a battle ensuing, or total lack of participation from both sides - identify which and wait till victor emerges/ one side takes control

Then you have a trade-able edge


RN
More...

RN, Will do my homework, and thanks.
 
DB, On those 8 or so pullbacks, what would be your method of entry.
Trailing the pullback bars, entering on a breakout of the previous high or a hit on a resistance level?
 
Quote from bmwhendrix:

DB, On those 8 or so pullbacks, what would be your method of entry.
Trailing the pullback bars, entering on a breakout of the previous high or a hit on a resistance level?
More...

If it really matters to you, you can do a search of my posts in Game's journal. But what matters most is what's best for you, which you'll determine through your testing.

Don't mean to be dismissive, but this isn't about me; it's about you.
 
I should point out here that the most likely "target" is 47, though price could also beat a retreat to 3100. However, a lot of trading has gone on at this level since lunch, and all of that provides support, so whether price falls from here depends on how many of those buyers will upchuck their contracts if it looks like a reversal.
 
Would like to hear your thoughts for the day. I didn't trade, but after going over the charts I think that I would have been looking short after price broke above 3100 but couldn't stay there. I would have re-entered long at one of the early retraces, but the first short trade would have been stopped out.
Am I looking at the initial rejection of 3100 too aggressively or does it look like a legitimate short opportunity?
Others beside 40 feel free to chime in too.




Quote from fortydraws:

You could just about cut and paste my premkt remarks from yesterday for today.

As to the big picture, I see a range that reminds somewhat of those Russian dolls where one is inside of another inside of another.

We have this 52.50 to 148 range, with 3100 the midpoint.

We have a 52.50 to 100 range, with 76 as its midpoint (and note where S finally came in yesterday afternoon - if you go back to last week, you will see that that 76 level was noted, and I don't know how many times we've mentioned the 77.50 +/- area as being one where things happen).

We also have the 100 to 148 range, with 124 as the midpoint. This has also been a level +/- where things have happened over the past couple of months.

Not shown is the 94/95 level, which is the approximate midpoint of yestday's trading range. If price opens more or less where it is (between 94 and 100, I will be watching both of those levels for clues as to who has control, and hence whose side I'm on.
More...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top