If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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When you're face to face with the Hydra, stats aren't going to help you. You have to determine what it is you're thinking throughout the process. Not what you were thinking, but what you are thinking. Perhaps the only way of doing this will be to use a digital voice recorder. They're cheap these days. Today you would have started recording as soon as price broke out of its trading range at 1010.
Edit: "When you're face to face with the Hydra". Technically, that should be "face to faces".
Niko,
Random thoughts
See if you can equate it (chop formation) to a time of day / time prior to an announcement/ low volume times
In stocks (recall Iâm a stock tard) I find chop âtypicallyâ follows the morning session â so I've come to anticipate its arrival around 11:30 ish
10 â 15 min prior to FOMC announcements and alike
Summer, and prior to holidays are also high probability of chop (low volume times of year)
I also look to see if today is turning out to be inside/ outside day (of yesterdayâs range)
Low volume times (low volume in both the buying and selling) are notorious â so Iâm constantly evaluating the current pressure being exerted
Also evaluate the current action - to action thatâs already transpired throughout the day
When it appears unexpectedly (not around previous S/R) â it usually takes 3, sometimes 4 stop outs till I get a clue (always be open to it)
Final thought;
For a daily bar to get printed, a H/L and in-between are created â keep an eye on the time of day, and progress of the daily barâs creation (admittedly this is quite subjective).
But every trad-able instrument has a personality â watching for traits â you may find one..., or two that provide insight
eta
Chop is either a battle ensuing, or total lack of participation from both sides - identify which and wait till victor emerges/ one side takes control
Then you have a trade-able edge
RN
Primary Areas of observation for me today.
Overnight high and low
Yesterdays high and low
Hinge (I think) on 60 min chart. midline between high and low of hinge is 3100
Overnight high and low
Yesterdays high and low
Hinge (I think) on 60 min chart. midline between high and low of hinge is 3100
If I may post a few non-random thoughts:
As DbPhoenix and Gringo both mentioned, I do focus on failure. If buyer's have control, then they need to do what buyer's do, which if done with sufficient demand or effort, must put prices up. Failure to put prices up at a level that had previously also seen failure on the part of buyers (i.e. resistance) means I start looking for a trade. Reverse this whole thing for seller's failing at a level where their efforts had previously been exhausted.
My plan for trading the NQ has been built around learning to identify those features of behavior that occur at S/R that would enable me to make a trade as close to what Wyckoff calls "the danger level." For those who've read Wyckoff's course, you know what this level is.
As DbPhoenix and Gringo both mentioned, I do focus on failure. If buyer's have control, then they need to do what buyer's do, which if done with sufficient demand or effort, must put prices up. Failure to put prices up at a level that had previously also seen failure on the part of buyers (i.e. resistance) means I start looking for a trade. Reverse this whole thing for seller's failing at a level where their efforts had previously been exhausted.
My plan for trading the NQ has been built around learning to identify those features of behavior that occur at S/R that would enable me to make a trade as close to what Wyckoff calls "the danger level." For those who've read Wyckoff's course, you know what this level is.
You could just about cut and paste my premkt remarks from yesterday for today.
As to the big picture, I see a range that reminds somewhat of those Russian dolls where one is inside of another inside of another.
We have this 52.50 to 148 range, with 3100 the midpoint.
We have a 52.50 to 100 range, with 76 as its midpoint (and note where S finally came in yesterday afternoon - if you go back to last week, you will see that that 76 level was noted, and I don't know how many times we've mentioned the 77.50 +/- area as being one where things happen).
We also have the 100 to 148 range, with 124 as the midpoint. This has also been a level +/- where things have happened over the past couple of months.
Not shown is the 94/95 level, which is the approximate midpoint of yestday's trading range. If price opens more or less where it is (between 94 and 100, I will be watching both of those levels for clues as to who has control, and hence whose side I'm on.
As to the big picture, I see a range that reminds somewhat of those Russian dolls where one is inside of another inside of another.
We have this 52.50 to 148 range, with 3100 the midpoint.
We have a 52.50 to 100 range, with 76 as its midpoint (and note where S finally came in yesterday afternoon - if you go back to last week, you will see that that 76 level was noted, and I don't know how many times we've mentioned the 77.50 +/- area as being one where things happen).
We also have the 100 to 148 range, with 124 as the midpoint. This has also been a level +/- where things have happened over the past couple of months.
Not shown is the 94/95 level, which is the approximate midpoint of yestday's trading range. If price opens more or less where it is (between 94 and 100, I will be watching both of those levels for clues as to who has control, and hence whose side I'm on.
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