If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

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It was pretty clear to me as I was watching the open the direction would likely be down, but I didn't take any trades because I have no plan for these trades.

When using this form of real time analysis, focusing on multiple time frames makes it difficult to determining the trend because you end up with conflicting ideas or too many points to watch imo.

When focusing on where the market is trading and using recent S/D and trend lines I find that I can determine the right direction often enough.

Clearly, supply was becoming too great, and price peaks weren't returning to their previous vertical points. 1 DL held 3 times, but as time continued the bull TLs kept being broken. The red arrows are close to my planned pattern shorts.

BTW in regards to that post a few days ago about me being in trading for 4 years and reaching goals.... I have but it's been part time. And for 3 of those years I barely ever even used a stop let alone a catastrophic one and did not have a well defined edge. If I am prepared properly for trading, I don't think it matters who I'm trading against pro or not. Even if a pro makes 1m a year, I'm sure his losses are big enough to make my goal per year anyway...

I don't care if or expect you to read my journal but it's all there. I've been break even for this year. Statistically I calculated I traded an avg of 8 days a month this year, and considering good trades don't come around that often I think I'm progressing well. I haven't reached my goals yet but I think with practice and further study it will be easy.

If I were a full time trader, had a solid plan and real time tested edge, and couldn't etch out a living in a year, I would question if I should trade ES for sure.
 

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The 9:35 bar broke through the DL of the overnight hinge at 90.75. It established a SL ancored on 96 at the open and angled steeply downward. This established us as a down day until broken. Should only be shorting.

The first SL was breached around 9:42 after the doji at 9:41, another doji at 9:43 indicated indecision and a tug of war. We bounced off Wednesdays highs at 84 and fanned the SL at 9:48 with another doji on the RET. This RET was > than 50% based on the open.

That SL held until 11:03. Should only have been shorting all morning on tests of this SL.
 

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Quote from dbphoenix:

I suggest that those of you who are still at the Cat On A Hot Tin Roof stage write down in detail what you did or think you should have done from the 0935 bar forward. This is what the journal is for, and if you don't do it, you'll be stuck here for the foreseeable future.
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This is all hindsight coulda shoulda woulda, as I am not yet tuned into NQ.

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1. At the open buyers fail to make a HH, perhaps a hard fill at the open, there is a new opp at the first RET (not shown). The trade was closed at the break of SL.

2. As SL was gone, a long at at HL would have been my choice, but then it failed immediately, as DL was intact no close yet, but I think this is one of the things i have to tune better as a 3.5 point loss is quite big for my taste.

3. As the SL of the hinge is Broken a small ret gives the opportunity to ride the plunge again. The first SL was pierced, but sellers pushed again, so the trade would have been kept. Exit would have come at 10:17 with a HL and a break of DL. The close could have also be considered as an opportunity to take another long, but there is a SL very close and my experience is not very good with that kind of behavior.

4. As sellers fail to break above the 82 level for a third time a short would have been valid. The close was again at the break of SL.

5. After the break of SL, there was no FT so a reentry would have been triggered, but it failed very fast.

I cant stop thinking this is way too sub-optimal as a short at the open could have been held until 11 with a 20 point profit, but then again I am still far away of being able to do that.
 

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Quote from fortydraws:

And here is the same NQ, same levels, but viewing a 120 minute bar interval and zooming out to get a more panoramic view of where price is relative to where it has been for much of the last two months.
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Agree, lines on a chart is like kindergarten learning session, we all understand that.

Following the observation of the lines comes a deeper understanding of the zigs and the zags, no problem there.

But moving into the real world of trading, sooner or later the fun begins. Enter an item called money.

With all the newly acquired knowledge of becoming a TA person and a draft for a plan in hand, the next and most important period starts....money, real greenbacks are sent to open an account. OK, all is ready to go, no sweat, how hard can this be?

WAIT, what is happening? As soon as REAL MONEY is involved those lines become more subjective and squirrely than ever. How could this be?

Lines on a chart are just that, lines on a chart. When it comes time to use those lines when real cash is on the LINE, everything changes. No longer is the reading of the chart the most important event for now. What takes over is the trader her/himself, psychology of the individual takes over and that is a whole new learning curve to master, if ever at all.

The point is this: What matters most is how a trader uses what is between the ears. A line without mastering self is not going to pass mustard when lines are backed with real cash...

I kid you not! :)
 
Quote from bighog:

But moving into the real world of trading, sooner or later the fun begins. Enter an item called money.

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WAIT, what is happening? As soon as REAL MONEY is involved those lines become more subjective and squirrely than ever. How could this be?

Lines on a chart are just that, lines on a chart. When it comes time to use those lines when real cash is on the LINE, everything changes.

_________________________________________________

The point is this: What matters most is how a trader uses what is between the ears. A line without mastering self is not going to pass mustard when lines are backed with real cash...

I kid you not! :)
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I think that you somehow think your problems are my problems. Not so.

Here is my quicken report of draws from my trading account over the last two weeks since you showed up. Everyday I take a portion of my profits as a check withdraw from IB. All real cash, all deposited in my real bank account. I take at least a small check everyday, sometimes a big check (for me), while currently allowing excess profits to accrue so that I can increase my trade size.

I have to say, I keep reading about emotions and psychology and mastering oneself. With all due respect to you, try as I might, this is the one area that I simply cannot relate to. I do not know what it means to have to "master" myself. I do know there are times when I am trading that I have no idea what is going on. When that happens, I simply shut down. How hard is that?

And I presume that you mean one must pass "muster." "Passing mustard" is more of a gastrointestinal task that occurs more or less automatically and without any skill whatsoever :D

And again, I ask you: What is your motive for posting here? If this is all nonsense to you, why waste your time? 99.9% of what I read here at ET is nonsense to me. Not once have I felt it necessary to post in response to nonsense a public statement of my opinion as to its lack of value. I simply move on. How hard is that?
 

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Yes, I agree.........when the picture is unclear, best to wait for your method and your method only. Momentum is all there really is.


I never was interested in what anyone makes, that is very childish at best. (My daddy can beat up your daddy)

Let me say this and then you can carry on: If I misspelled a word and you corrected it, GEE, that was awful big of you..

Hope in the eyes...= The charts
Talent in your head...= Method, skill, intuition
Fearless in your heart......... Swing the bat when your pitch comes

have a nice weekend for labor day........ Wear the union label.........Never forget, without the union movement after the BIG ONE there never would have been a great middle class in America. Look at the economic numbers today and you see who is ruining the great society that your parents enjoyed. https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://stateofworkingamerica.org/files/book% Try this one instead http://stateofworkingamerica.org/

PS: It is well known many reply to posts in ET as entertainment. I prefer telling others that trading is not a walk in the park. :cool:
 
Quote from bighog:

I never was interested in what anyone makes, that is very childish at best.
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You were saying things change when cash is on the
line. I was just providing you with what little evidence I am willing to provide that cash is on the line. I'd be perfectly hapy to keep this discussion to doing what we're doing here. It is you who pull things off task.

Good weekend to you. I hope you seek your entertainment elsewhere at ET. There are literally thousands of BS threads for you to frolick through.
 
Hello, this is my first post here and also my first attempt:

1. Short after the first RET after open, first SL broken but no HH, no exit , new dash SL broken, exit trade.

2.RET to 50% of the down move, supply came in with strength, not ready for long instead look for a continuing of the down move.

3. LL created, not sure if I would enter at the break of the DL, another entry would be at the green rectangle after the 1 minute small RET.

4. Same with previous one, no HH, dash SL broken, exit.

5. HL created, buy stop above previous top as it looks like a valid up move, entry failed the price unable to breach previous high.

6. Rejected at top, and may be considered a RET done? I see this should be a valid entry if not there will be another entry few minutes later. Supply come in strongly , trade exited.

7. RET done above DL, DL broken , short entered. As this may looked like a range trade 1st trade may not be entered, instead i see another short is valid after the RET out of the range.

8. LH and redraw the SL(dash) , failed to push anymore lower, line broken, trade exited.

Any comment is appreciated, I hope I can see these opportunity in real time too since these are all hindsight paper trade.
 

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