If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

[horton]

Quote from Gringo:

Horton,

I have tried to quickly add some comments to your chart.

You added a Line that was invalidated by a higher high. That is why I don't have it on the chart anymore, though I do show the corresponding Pivot (horizontal line) for reference.

A Bar is an Indicator. A Line is an Indicator. Fibs (50% or whatever) are Indicators. Moving Averages are Indicators. I use all of these as visual aids.

The real question is what are you trying to see? Once you understand that you can use whatever Indicators float your boat.

In my case I organize Structure using the same set of Bar Intervals and Channels across all Instruments. Then I draw Lines and if I am in the mood I will look at the Fibs. These are just various ways of forcing your brain to see the Pivots and acknowledge the Direction and Momentum of the Price Configuration.

But these are just Effects. I trade best when I understand the Causes.

 

[horton]

Quote from dbphoenix:

While your participation is welcomed, your chart is not exactly in keeping with the thrust of the thread. No bands, no envelopes, no indicators, no anything other than price. Just price (see the first post for an example).

As to the ES, it currently resides at the midpoint between resistance at 1667 and support at 1659. Higher and lower levels aren't even in play.

Edit: Even though I discourage beginners from becoming involved with the ES, I should point out since it's been brought up that 1640 is the midpoint of its trend channel. Given that the ES loves to revert to its mean, and given that it has bounced off that midpoint, 1625 may not be the most logical target.

Your the OP so if you feel that strongly about charts with parameter based indicators then I will refrain in the future.

I was referencing the Daily chart and above so again if you prefer to focus on the Hourly or something similar then I'll refrain on that too in the future.

But keep in mind that the 1625 area is a Demand Line on the Weekly chart and Price is moving in that Direction with Momentum in the Daily. Unless and until SPX 1675 is breached in the Hourly that Momentum must be respected when considering Scenarios in the Hourly.

Actually as I write this the 60m Demand Line is in play...

 

[horton]

Quote from horton:

Actually as I write this the 60m Demand Line is in play...

So now the 1658 Pivot is in play...and after that the 1650 Pivot.

 

[horton]

Quote from horton:

But these are just Effects. I trade best when I understand the Causes.

And here's the Cause for this test of ES 1658, from RanSquawk:

"Very sketchy chatter from Twitter that Russia has said that Syria is headed for a Western military strike following Kerry's statement - Unconfirmed
Geopolitical
Source: Twitter / 911buff

Mon, 14:14 26-08-2013"

 

[masterm1ne]

Today is very clean price action ~possible 8 point trade

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from horton:

Your the OP so if you feel that strongly about charts with parameter based indicators then I will refrain in the future.

I was referencing the Daily chart and above so again if you prefer to focus on the Hourly or something similar then I'll refrain on that too in the future.

But keep in mind that the 1625 area is a Demand Line on the Weekly chart and Price is moving in that Direction with Momentum in the Daily. Unless and until SPX 1675 is breached in the Hourly that Momentum must be respected when considering Scenarios in the Hourly.

Actually as I write this the 60m Demand Line is in play...

The only pertinent demand line on the daily is the one which can be drawn from last Wednesday's low, and that is in the process of being broken. 1625 is not a "demand line" on the weekly chart unless you have some personal definition of a demand line that is inconsistent with demand lines as defined in this thread.

As for momentum, the line of least resistance is up until 1640 is broken. If one is trading the hourly, of course, shorting the return trip may be worthwhile, particularly if he shorted the double top at 1667. If he didn't, then that of course is the point of addressing this in advance rather than after the fact.

 

[horton]

Quote from horton:

And here's the Cause for this test of ES 1658, from RanSquawk:

"Very sketchy chatter from Twitter that Russia has said that Syria is headed for a Western military strike following Kerry's statement - Unconfirmed
Geopolitical
Source: Twitter / 911buff

Mon, 14:14 26-08-2013"

So now you have a bunch of trapped traders that never thought anything below 1658 (SPX 1660) was in play and they are praying that someone will let them out before ES 1648 (SPX 1650) because if that fails they will be in world of hurt.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from horton:

So now you have a bunch of trapped traders that never thought anything below 1658 (SPX 1660) was in play and they are praying that someone will let them out before ES 1648 (SPX 1650) because if that fails they will be in world of hurt.

Ransquawk is a little late. The short setup occurred four hours ago.

 

[horton]

Quote from dbphoenix:

1625 is not a "demand line" on the weekly chart unless you have some personal definition of a demand line that is inconsistent with demand lines as defined in this thread.

That must be the case. Anyway nice thread and thanks for starting it. I'll shut up now.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from masterm1ne:

Today is very clean price action ~possible 8 point trade

The test you were looking for on your chart took place at 1030 (using your chart's times). It isn't necessary to test it again.

Don't concern yourself with where buyers have their stops or what sellers plans are. Just focus on price.