If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

[masterm1ne]

I know this thread focuses on NQ but the same principles apply to ES (& all other markets)

Price continued to slam through all recent supply lines. One demand line has held. We've run 6 points so far. I'd be sitting on my hands.

It's clear from larger time frames that demand lines are holding strongly. IMO one should focus only on longs.

 

[masterm1ne]

Basic principles of a uptrend and a single demand line have been in place for several days.

You can see on this 10,000 tick chart buying and selling waves represented by single bars indicate that the uptrend is still in good health. Each white bar today envelopes all of the previous black one and brakes more positive vertical distance.

Of course things aren't always as clear cut as this. But chartists can take advantage of it!

Take known truths about the market:

1) Most traders lose i.e. most price action is due to losing trade liquidation
2) When price is moving up, sellers are forced to buy (cover) and buyers are chasing the market unless they are already long (and vice versa for downtrends). Therefore the trend is more likely to continue than end.

This is what forms the core of profitable trading IMO.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from masterm1ne:

I'll post my thoughts on this as I am sure applying the techniques described in this thread one can become a millionaire (if properly capitalized) within a year or two.

Millionaire within a year or two. 10-20 million in the next few years and then onto 100 million within a decade or so! Perhaps it is what we should all aspire to, however the reality may not be so acquiescing.

There are loses and then there are times when market goes dull. It's not always easy to reconcile what the market is willing to give and what we expect to receive. The challenges do get easier but are still there. The market is a mechanism where most will be fooled for the few to get their due share. I suggest guarding against such undue exuberance as our expectations are very well capable of clouding the very judgment we hold so vainly on a pedestal.

Gringo

 

[masterm1ne]

That is my personal goal; 1m. Not suggesting you should have the same, but ask yourself, why are you here? I doubt you wouldn't say 'money.'

It is also why I said this shouldn't be in the forefront of one's mind. I have noticed in the little trading I've done that the more focused I become on the money, the harder it is to make it.

I realize that times change and it's not an exact science. I don't become exuberant at all when I trade anymore, but fear related emotions affect me especially when I'm losing. Engrained in my mind is lescor's numbers for 2 consecutive years, he made near 1m. I was merely stating it is doable.

Most important for me and many other traders as well are the fear linked emotions that we must banish with time/practice/study.

 

[horton]

Quote from masterm1ne:


It's clear from larger time frames that demand lines are holding strongly. IMO one should focus only on longs.

Greetings. I've been browsing through this thread and I thought I would chime in as the tone seems pretty sane. On the ES I think the broader context argues for an open mind on direction here. If SPX 1675 is not breached soon then SPX 1625 becomes very logical. The SPX is really lagging the NDX now as the NDX retests the high in the Daily chart. Either way SPX 1675 is a very important level.

 

[Hooti]

Quote from yertleturtle:

Just pick an approach and stick with it. The first part is to find something that resonates with you. Work with just that thing for a few months at the exclusion of all else. Enough soap box - sorry. [/B]

Your point is well taken. I have tried various things in the past, but price action has always seemed a better fit for me and I've been more and more aiming at it. db's communicated it in a way that makes more sense than before... at least to me. I just may do it to the exclusion of all else soon! Let me get a little further thru the ebook and we will see.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from masterm1ne:

That is my personal goal; 1m. Not suggesting you should have the same, but ask yourself, why are you here?

1M is a reasonable goal. I wish you all the best.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

If one is going to trade price, it doesn't make much sense to trade a representation of price. One isn't going to turn to stone if one stares price in the face.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from horton:

Greetings. I've been browsing through this thread and I thought I would chime in as the tone seems pretty sane. On the ES I think the broader context argues for an open mind on direction here. If SPX 1675 is not breached soon then SPX 1625 becomes very logical. The SPX is really lagging the NDX now as the NDX retests the high in the Daily chart. Either way SPX 1675 is a very important level.

While your participation is welcomed, your chart is not exactly in keeping with the thrust of the thread. No bands, no envelopes, no indicators, no anything other than price. Just price (see the first post for an example).

As to the ES, it currently resides at the midpoint between resistance at 1667 and support at 1659. Higher and lower levels aren't even in play.

Edit: Even though I discourage beginners from becoming involved with the ES, I should point out since it's been brought up that 1640 is the midpoint of its trend channel. Given that the ES loves to revert to its mean, and given that it has bounced off that midpoint, 1625 may not be the most logical target.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from horton:

Greetings. I've been browsing through this thread and I thought I would chime in as the tone seems pretty sane. On the ES I think the broader context argues for an open mind on direction here. If SPX 1675 is not breached soon then SPX 1625 becomes very logical. The SPX is really lagging the NDX now as the NDX retests the high in the Daily chart. Either way SPX 1675 is a very important level.

Horton,

I have tried to quickly add some comments to your chart. The important points are. Draw DL/SL lines a bit closer to the price. They should be hugging the price so show you the demand and supply dynamic and not be treated as a trend line.

Notice your resistance line is approached but price breaches the DL (light blue). This is a headup that the momentum 'might' be shifting here. Price then retraces (RET) a bit and then attempts to go above 1700 again and fails. So demand doesn't have enough juice or supply is too strong. Whatever the case may be price isn't able to stay above 1700 (see arrow where price fails). After that even price starts making lower and lower lows. You didn't need indicators to tell you all this. If price is unable to go up then where is the line of least resistance? Down perhaps or sideways. This doesn't mean your short may be successful or this is an ultimate top for price. You may have even exited your long here and price could have started to move upwards with conviction. These are normal things that happen with price, but at least you'll know when this happens, and you'll be the only one deciding what to do about it, and not someone's mathematically driven formula. What you are getting is a new way to look at price sans any distractions. You'll also need to know the context of where price is in relation to other support/resistance levels etc before making better entry decisions. Now you can cover this chart with your hand and move your hand to the right bar by bar and see how price flows and where it fails to get a sense of price reading.

Even without my blue DL you could have come to the same conclusion albeit a bit later. Once price breaks the DL you've drawn and then is unable to go to the previous swing high around 1700 it's a sign that demand is not strong enough to propel price up.

Indicator dependency is a curable disease .

Gringo