If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

[dbphoenix]

Quote from fortydraws:

Just to make sure, DbPhoneix, the times posted are Eastern, correct?

I try. With all the different time zones that people operate in, doing these conversions can be a real PIA. Chart sites in particular ought to convert their services to EDT, but they don't. So while I try, I can't guarantee that I won't fk up.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from yertleturtle:

Hi DBP -

Sorry to have to post this in your thread but as a new member here I'm not allowed to send PMs. Anyway - I haven't received your e-book. Let me know what I can do to help.

YT

That's fine. I sent it, but my email account shows no record of it's having been sent. So I wanted to double-check. Will try again.

 

[yertleturtle]

pdfs received! Thanks DBP

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Not exactly. Price finds support at the opening low, so the entry is off the higher low at 1100, at 1101 or 1102, preferably around 42 or just above.

Db,

How dooes one avoid getting trapped in a hinge entering before the break of the last swing high, is it something about the behaviour of price or volume previous to the entry or one just closes the trade after price fails to break above the last swing high?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

Db,

How dooes one avoid getting trapped in a hinge entering before the break of the last swing high, is it something about the behaviour of price or volume previous to the entry or one just closes the trade after price fails to break above the last swing high?

B. This is a case of The Dog That Didn't Bark. You expect price to breach the last swing high or you wouldn't be in the trade in the first place. If it doesn't, why stay in? Hope, i.e., fear of missing out.

Remember that this is a low-risk, high win-rate approach. That's why "expectancy" is irrelevant. If it's not shaping up the way you expect it to, get out. You can always get back in if conditions improve. Take, for example, the higher low at 1100 this morning. Note also that when the trade is right, price rarely looks back.

 

[yertleturtle]

DBP -

I'm interested in participating in the thread. I'm way back on page 18 but if I want to post charts do they need to be daily/hourly/1 min? I'd prefer to post tick charts for the lowest time frame as the lulls are generally compressed but I'll do what ever is required.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from yertleturtle:

DBP -

I'm interested in participating in the thread. I'm way back on page 18 but if I want to post charts do they need to be daily/hourly/1 min? I'd prefer to post tick charts for the lowest time frame as the lulls are generally compressed but I'll do what ever is required.

You're most welcome to use the tick chart. Db I think also uses the tick chart for entry and exit decisions as well. The fundamental principles are the same regardless of the bar interval chosen.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from yertleturtle:

DBP -

I'm interested in participating in the thread. I'm way back on page 18 but if I want to post charts do they need to be daily/hourly/1 min? I'd prefer to post tick charts for the lowest time frame as the lulls are generally compressed but I'll do what ever is required.

Tick, hourly, weekly, bar, line, it's all the same trend. But keep the distinction between "timeframe" and "bar interval" in mind. From this point to that point is a timeframe (from this Tuesday to next Friday). How you illustrate it is a bar interval (1t, 7m, 4h, etc).

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

If it's not shaping up the way you expect it to, get out.

Thank you, there must be something I am not paying attention to during backtesting, I have so far focused on the HL or LH setups, but always waited for the break of LSH or LSL, wich is not exactly a low risk setup.

I will go back to the observation phase and see what I can find.

 

[dbphoenix]

Perhaps you're thinking too much in terms of "setups". Look instead at what traders are doing and why they're doing it. If, for example, price hits resistance and drops back, then traders try for a higher high and fail, that means something. Or if they fall back and make a higher low then try for the top of the range again, that also means something, and there's no compelling reason to wait for a breakout before entering the trade. The fact that they're trying at all after having just failed is important. And, yes, they may fail yet again, but by that time you will be at least at breakeven and can exit quickly if they find they just can't break through resistance no matter what.

On the flip side, the fact that they've tried at least twice now and just don't have what it takes to break through implies that a reversal entry is higher probability than it would have been after the first attempt.

It might help to use a 30s or 15s bar interval and set your replay at no more than 2x. I know it can be boring, but rushing through it is of not much more benefit than not doing it at all.