If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

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Quote from dbphoenix:

Overnite supply line broken at the midpoint of this trading range.

0846: higher high by a couple of ticks but lower low, so no long entry.

0850: at trend swing low.

0855: lower swing low. This provides a "real-time", clutter-free example of what I've posted many times regarding a break of a supply or demand line but an inability to exceed the immediately-preceding swing high or low. As long as those swing points hold, there's no compelling reason to exit the trade. Granted price may reverse itself and test those swing points again, but that's later. This is now.

0901: price worming its way back below the supply line. Technically one could fan the supply line at this point to include 46, but given how tentative price is being (not unusual for this time of morning), we'll be conservative.

0904: and price breaks the original supply line again. Will it find resistance at the last swing low?

0908: the change in momentum is obvious. It's the waiting for traders to make up their minds that leads to inattention.

0913: still within the range of the midpoint. Supply lines aside, we are now in a range from 45 to 40. These levels, then, become more important than a supply line if one is not already in the trade (which would have been 55 after the umpteenth test of resistance). This is, by the way, "chop".

0921: getting ready to break the higher supply line. If there's a higher low here, that would be a good long for the aggressive, ahead of a break of 45.

0951: working its way up to the swing high at 52.

1006: has moved past 52, retraced, and trying again. Above the 50% level of this downmove.

1011: demand broken but price holding above 50% level. May exit the trade and stand aside or hold.

0951: working its way up to the swing high at 52.

1006: has moved past 52, retraced, and trying again. Above the 50% level of this downmove.

1011: demand broken but price holding above 50% level. May exit the trade and stand aside or hold.
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1030: price having trouble making a higher high but still holding above 50%. NQ much stronger than the ES today, which found resistance at its 50% level. That however has nothing to do with the plan. It's just an observation.

1033: price having trouble holding here. If 49 breaks, trade should be exited.

1036: even though 53 was not any particular resistance, a trader who knows how to and can exit quickly could short here. Otherwise, stand aside.

1042: ah, tricky.

1044: an SAR at 51 would have been appropriate for the aggressive. Otherwise, continue to stand aside.

1047: SAR long would be out now. This is a good example of price creating its own resistance at an unanticipated level during the trading session.

Out of time. Hope this was in some way helpful.
 
db was the 50% level for this comment:
"1030: price having trouble making a higher high but still holding above 50%. NQ much stronger than the ES today, which found resistance at its 50% level. That however has nothing to do with the plan. It's just an observation."

Set from the low of the 9:30 bar to the high of the 9:59 bar?
 
Quote from bigmoose:

db was the 50% level for this comment:
"1030: price having trouble making a higher high but still holding above 50%. NQ much stronger than the ES today, which found resistance at its 50% level. That however has nothing to do with the plan. It's just an observation."

Set from the low of the 9:30 bar to the high of the 9:59 bar?
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From the high at 58 to the low at 40.

Begin with the width of the entire trading range, from 58-60 to 24-28. This puts the midpoint around 42. The 50% level for this particular segment is from the high at 58 to the midpoint, i.e., 49-50. The exact 50% level can't be determined until one gets there and sees how traders behave at that level. In this case, 49 appeared to be a turning point. I'd like to call it a "pivot" point, but that would only confuse everybody. Better would be "rotisserie" point, but that takes too long to type.

Edit: 1130: You can see here that as soon as price reaches 49, it begins to hesitate. This doesn't mean that you have to do anything other than be alert and cautious. What is more important is the confirmation that 49 is a level to which attention should be paid.
 
Quote from bmwhendrix:

DB, would you have trailed that lower low at 11:02 for a long entry?
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Not exactly. Price finds support at the opening low, so the entry is off the higher low at 1100, at 1101 or 1102, preferably around 42 or just above.
 
Quote from bigmoose:

db was the 50% level for this comment:
"1030: price having trouble making a higher high but still holding above 50%. NQ much stronger than the ES today, which found resistance at its 50% level. That however has nothing to do with the plan. It's just an observation."

Set from the low of the 9:30 bar to the high of the 9:59 bar?
More...

Quote from dbphoenix:

From the high at 58 to the low at 40.

Begin with the width of the entire trading range, from 58-60 to 24-28. This puts the midpoint around 42. The 50% level for this particular segment is from the high at 58 to the midpoint, i.e., 49-50. The exact 50% level can't be determined until one gets there and sees how traders behave at that level. In this case, 49 appeared to be a turning point. I'd like to call it a "pivot" point, but that would only confuse everybody. Better would be "rotisserie" point, but that takes too long to type.

Edit: 1130: You can see here that as soon as price reaches 49, it begins to hesitate. This doesn't mean that you have to do anything other than be alert and cautious. What is more important is the confirmation that 49 is a level to which attention should be paid.
More...

1234: just to put a lid on it, note that price did manage to struggle through the 50% level (which wound up being much wider than usual, more like 48-52%) and has now reached the upper limit of the range, at which point you have permission to exit the trade and go outside and play.

My apologies for taking so long to reply to these posts. I'm in the middle of renovating a house and I don't have much time after the first hour, and often not even then, depending on the weather.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

Not exactly. Price finds support at the opening low, so the entry is off the higher low at 1100, at 1101 or 1102, preferably around 42 or just above.
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Just to make sure, DbPhoneix, the times posted are Eastern, correct?
 
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