If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

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Quote from fortydraws:

At first glance this morning, traders were strolling back and forth across a narrow range, but the closer in time to the opening bell, the wider that range became, as both buyers and sellers took turns pushing the range to both new lower and new higher limits.

As was the case yesterday, the market opened and traders first tested the upper limits of the overnight range. The reversal was quick - too quick for me. I would have shorted during the 9:35 bar, but by the time I had a stop limit entered, price was below my intended entry and did not retrace high enough to fill it.

I had considered a long during the 10:01 bar, but I "considered" it for too long, and I did not place a trade. My indecision was simply due to the fact that price had dropped right back into its overnight range, and I was unable to determine whether the odds favored a continued movement lower to test the lower extreme, or a reversal higher. If I do not see evidence that makes me think the odds favor one direction over the other, I do not trade.

My next trade was a short during the 10:18 bar, which was exited during the 10:38 bar.

My next trade was again a short during the 10:56 bar, which was exited on a limit order at 66.75.

All in all, my best day since I started trading the NQ - the most points at +13, the most most relaxed as I was sure as I entered both of my trades that it was the right thing to do at the time. I do not mean that I felt certain of a profit, only that I felt certain that the behavior of the market at that time made the direction of my bet a higher probability than the direction opposite my bet. And of course, the best pay day, and I earned myself a draw, with enough remainder to put me just over 25% of the way toward a second NQ draw.

As I finish this entry, I see a rally has developed which commenced from the midpoint of the next support prices I have marked (62.25 up to 66.5). I am finished trading for the day, but as I am still in learning mode, I will continue to watch. Of interest to me now is whether or not the NQ makes a lower high on the hourly bar interval chart.

Any comments as always will be appreciated. Thank you for this opportunity, DbPhoenix.

PS I just received Justin Mamis's three works - When to Buy, When to Sell, and The Nature of Risk. I started When to Buy last night, and I am thoroughly enjoying it, and I have no doubt that as I move forward, many of his lessons will be incorporated into both my understanding of how these markets work and my ability to trade them. While my current focus is on generating a plan that will allow me to replace my current income with income from day trading (I'm halfway there), I also have funds that have largely languished with my stock broker, and once I have my day trading plan in place and in action, I want to make a plan for longer term investment trading also.
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Nice trading. I was thinking long but could not get anything good.
 
Today´s trades:

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1. Sellers cant break S at the open and buyers hold prices above the LSL
2. Same as 1, but then price stalls and i decide to close and wait for clarity.
3. Buyers manage to break 79 after holding the HL.
 
Quote from niko:

Nice trading. I was thinking long but could not get anything good.
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Thank you. The only longs I saw yesterday where in the afternoon when I was no longer trading: I wrote down that I would take a long entry during the 12:05 bar interval, during the 13:32 bar interval, and during the 15:24 bar interval, but the one time in the morning I had considered a long I did not decide it was worth the risk.

Today, on the other hand, saw two shorts and a long, and I am now done for the day (I had most of this post ready to go late this morning when an opportunity for me to earn a little extra scratch at my other job arose - and hi ho hi ho off to work I did go) :D

I sold short during the 9:47 bar interval, after buyers took price for a probe that quickly stalled above the premkt news response high. Price then retraced back to the midpoint of the overnight low and high, which coincided with the highs of a short consolidation pre-news this morning. I closed the shorts and reversed to long during the 9:57 bar interval.

I closed that long too soon, when price met R at that post-news spike high, fought the urge to go lower, and then sold down a bit. I closed it the long, but did not go short, as I do not wish to take a position unless the most recent high (for a short) or low (for a long) has been tested +/- a tick or two. I know DbPhoenix warns against demanding surgical precision, but for now, I'm riding with training wheels.

I was on the sidelines until buyers again drove price to make yet another higher high that again quickly reversed. I sold short duing the 10:39 bar interval. This and the first short today are quickly becoming my favorite set-ups. I call it "The Dog Didn't Bark" set-up, after DbPhoenix's explanation of similar price action in Game's "Making of a Method" journal. As I understand it, if buyers can push price past R, or sellers drive price below S, and price responds in the opposite way from what one would expect from such shows of strength or weekness, then "the dog didn't bark." Simply put, a brief spike in demand that puts price above R, but which quickly dries up or meets overwhelming supply, is a good place for me to look for a short. DbPhoenix explains it better so you can go find it in Game's thread.

I closed that last short during the 10:48 bar. I keep T&S open, and what I saw at that time was this - lots of trades hitting the offer, and with larger size than the few tardes hitting the bid. For example, at one point there was a string of trades at the offered 77.50, many with 10, 15. 20 or more contracts, while the few trades taking place at the then 77.25 bid where largely 1 lot trades. I anticipated that prices were morelikely heading higher rather than lower, so rather than wait around to find out, I exited at the market.

I am again pleased with my work for today. I have a definite sense of a growing familarity with the NQ, and the behavior(s) of those who trade it. My strength has been waiting for price to reach S or R, and then to take a position when a reversal is signalled in the way price is behaving at S or R. My weakness remains that I do not yet have a real sense of, or confidence in trading a pause in a continuing trend. So if I miss the long entry at S, I tend to miss the entire rally even though I have R clearly and accurately identified on my chart. I know where price is most likely going, but I have not been able to figure out how to join it if I miss the first move off S.

I am back to my regular employment for the remainder of the week, and next week, weather permitting, I'm goin' fishin', so I may not be trading again until the week after next. I will do bar replay as time allows, so as not to lose too much of my forward progress.

Thanks again for this thread, DbPhoenix. It is much appreciated :cool:
 

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Quote from niko:

Today´s trades:

attachment.php


1. Sellers cant break S at the open and buyers hold prices above the LSL
2. Same as 1, but then price stalls and i decide to close and wait for clarity.
3. Buyers manage to break 79 after holding the HL.
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Niko, any idea why I cannot "see" your chart?
 
I just went back to db's original post in this thread to review and it seems to be gone, is it just me doing something stupid or is this the case for other ppl as well?

If the post is gone, anyone got a copy?
 
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