If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

[Redneck]

Quote from niko:

we should expect

Very dangerous words Sir.... and an even more deadly mindset

Something to ponder

RN

 

[niko]

Quote from Redneck:

Very dangerous words Sir.... and an even more deadly mindset

Something to ponder

RN

Thanks for your comments, I think you are right, I am not really after taking a long given my "expectation" that the market will reach 3000, I was just pointing out that given that we are still on an uptrend an that the top of the June TR is 3000 buyers could try to get there.

 

[MadeMan]

Quote from MadeMan:

even if its a lil late in the day .. here is how i would prep. and execute a potential long setup in NQ

...............................
http://imgur.com/MQVF1gG

All cool , TP hit !

http://imgur.com/MQVF1gG


http://i.imgur.com/jvvj3hp.png

 

[niko]

Still in an uptrend.

 

[fortydraws]

Thank you for your replies, DbPhoenix. I did not post yesterday as I had nothing to do but watch. I started too late to short the double top premkt and then I seemed to find that the borogroves were mimsy and I was unable to act decisively as I continue to endeavor to glean the true meaning of Jabberwocky.

Here is my work from this morning. I adopted your color scheme of turquoise for long, red for short, and black for exits. I stopped trading for the day but will continue to watch. After the final exit I found myself feeling strangely disoriented and not at all sure what was next. So I put my "transmit order" button away for the day, but will continue to observe.

Any comments from you will be taken with the utmost consideration - whether they be to call me good, bad, or plain old ugly!

Reading the chart from left to right (all times are Eastern Daylight Savings), I bought during the 8:49 bar interval as price broke above its consolidation from the break out from a not nearly perfect hinge-like beast. I exited during the 9:18 bar, if I recollect proper, when price double topped and things looked uncertain.

Trade two was short during the 9:33 bar. I exited during the 9:49 bar (higher low).

I shorted again during the 9:57 bar interval as price met with selling at the midpoint of the morning swoon. I exited 10:10 (higher low).

Perhaps not perfect, but trading relatively small size I caught quite the prize. And it sure beats being long 1000 shares of REGN and hoping the stock doesn't get halted for bad news pending until your day trade is over.

As always, thanks for your help!

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from fortydraws:

After the final exit I found myself feeling strangely disoriented and not at all sure what was next. So I put my "transmit order" button away for the day, but will continue to observe.

The smartest thing anyone can do.

I exited during the 9:18 bar, if I recollect proper, when price double topped and things looked uncertain.

It's not the double top per se but the failure of buyers to push price above 77 -- resistance from yesterday and this morning -- that tells you to get out and also gives you permission to short. The two subsequent failures to breach 75.5 just confirm this, so you could have shorted a bit higher. This is what our friend on TL can't understand: it's not the "pattern" but the behavior of traders that tells one what to do.

I exited during the 9:49 bar (higher low).

Again, it's the failure to make a lower low at potential support (from the overnite, and also the midpoint of the decline from 78 to 48) that signals a potential reversal. Waiting for the break of a supply line is fine if you are doing so and you need it, but it's the behavior that is the signal, particularly because the behavior is in the market. Thus you could have exited faster and gone long there (which is green, by the way)

I shorted again during the 9:57 bar interval as price met with selling at the midpoint of the morning swoon.

A good entry. No need to wait for multiple confirmations. But if you had been long, you might not have taken it, though you would have had time to exit a long and short at 67.5.

My comments are merely tweaks. If you've had supply and demand lines in mind but you understand the behaviors that traders are exhibiting through their trades, you can try tossing the S/D line crutches. You can always retrieve them, temporarily, if necessary.

 

[fortydraws]

Quote from dbphoenix:

The smartest thing anyone can do.



It's not the double top per se but the failure of buyers to push price above 77 -- resistance from yesterday and this morning -- that tells you to get out and also gives you permission to short. The two subsequent failures to breach 75.5 just confirm this, so you could have shorted a bit higher. This is what our friend on TL can't understand: it's not the "pattern" but the behavior of traders that tells one what to do.

Yes, understood. And as I watch price, I do think things like "is that the best those Sellers can do - a new low by two ticks and already the Buyers have the ball back above the overnight low!" Within that behavior, there is a pattern, and to communicate the pattern, jargon is born, e.g. "double top", "double bottom", the TL "2B", etc. and so on.

I am susceptible to the ease of use of jargon, and it is good to be reminded that the jargon refers to a pattern that is derived from or caused by human actions/interactions. Especially as that is the only thing that makes sense of the whole shooting match.

Thank you for the comments. Although I had read your book last year and studied much of the Wyckoff material that you made available, I do feel that I am only now starting to reap the full harvest. I'm not there yet, just see how my uncertainty kept me from the long side of a nearly 20 point rally from the morning low today. But I am very happy with where I am right now, knowing that I'll be better tomorrow. As nodoji said, "Your posts are awesome. Thanks for sharing, as I learned a lot from this thread."

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from fortydraws:

I'm not there yet, just see how my uncertainty kept me from the long side of a nearly 20 point rally from the morning low today.

Don't be concerned about it. If you had years of failure behind you it's unlikely that you would get it at all.

As for the "pattern" business, one problem with that approach is that the pattern exists only within a particular bar interval. A "double bottom" in one bar bar interval may be a triple bottom in another. Or a quintuple bottom. Where does it end? How much easier to note that sellers failed to push price below a certain level. The bar interval becomes irrelevant. What is important is the failure. Just as now when buyers failed, again, to push price above 78 followed by a lower high. Is that justification for a short? Sure. Will price drop thereafter? Who knows? But whether price plummets or not has nothing to do with the central failure of buyers to push price above 78.

Buyers, sellers, success, failure. Naming something does not confer any particular power.

Edit: And now they've finally made it through, on every bar interval including the 60m. Let's see how much attention this draws.

Edit: FWIW, even though the ES and NQ are not joined at the hip, the reason why the NQ is having so much trouble here may have to do with the effort the ES is making to exceed the June swing highs at 50. I suspect that ES traders view this as some sort of signal.

 

[fortydraws]

Quote from dbphoenix:

The bar interval becomes irrelevant. What is important is the failure. Just as now when buyers failed, again, to push price above 78 followed by a lower high. Is that justification for a short? Sure. Will price drop thereafter? Who knows? But whether price plummets or not has nothing to do with the central failure of buyers to push price above 78.

Buyers, sellers, success, failure. Naming something does not confer any particular power.

I was observing and not trading this afternoon, but I saw three shorts around 78 (during 11:50, 13:18, and 14:51) two of which would have been covered and reversed around 73 (12:20 and 13:45). The third short would have resulted in a small loss for me. After that loss, I would have missed the move to 85, but I would have caught the short around 82-83 (15:45) on the failure to make it back to 85. Thanks again!

 

[Redneck]

This post potentially could be misinterpreted as a slight toward DB – it is not

I respect him…, as I do all traders, or folks sincerely trying to be one

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From all the views to this thread I surmise he has quite the following…

And small wonder – his charts/ commentary make total sense – and are easy to understand

For those of you trying to dissect/ replicate how DB trades and/or how he sets up his chart(s) / deciphers each day’s story - I propose this;


Try focusing on, and understanding - HOW DB is thinking

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The mkt can be summed this way….

• Price can only do what – move up/ down/ sideways

• Participants are either – buying or selling

• At any given moment in time one side is either

In control

Trying to gain control

Relinquished control

That’s it…..

And I’ll also go so as to say any trader can show any aspiring trader – how to trade in a couple of hours - give or take

=============================

So what is the big deal…, missing link…. "holy grail"….. "secret" of unlocking it all

It is all about how we think….

Which btw, is why trying to teach another is damn near impossible


Sure we can show you/ even sit next to you and trade…

But mostly that’ll only serve to make one frustrated…. because you can’t replicate it – try like hell as you might….

Successful trading is not about what you think – but how

Successful trading is also not about what you think – but only what you do…

And how you think – absolutely 100% dictates what you do / how you view a chart/ all of it

===============

I don’t know... maybe this is coming across as some hocus pocus / guru bullshit…

It ain't meant to be….

It is simply the most straight up way I can explain it


Please if nothing – try to gain insight into how DB is thinking – it’ll improve your trading beyond measure

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DB – as always… you take exception to what I've said here, please say so Sir


Probably just more of my random crap

RN