If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

[Daring]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Are you going to be posting calls in real time?

I'm very interested in this thread.

Your mind is screwed wrong for trading, probabilities and you don't jive.

Stick with your averaging down.

 

[thalestrader]

Hi there, Db,

What a pleasant surprise to see you not only posting over here, but with a new journal as well! I now have a reason to log in to ET more than once every 6-12 months. I'm hitting the "subscribe" button, and I have a few folks to whom I'll be recommending they do the same.

I look forward, as always, to you following your work.

Best Wishes,

Thales

 

[d473n]

Awesome stuff DB, nice to see you posting again. Question though, wouldn't 9:55am area be a spot to exit your first long or scale out? If you had played it that way, when would you have entered long again? Soon after price bounced off 2903 or wait for price to make a HH?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from thalestrader:

Hi there, Db,

What a pleasant surprise to see you not only posting over here, but with a new journal as well! I now have a reason to log in to ET more than once every 6-12 months. I'm hitting the "subscribe" button, and I have a few folks to whom I'll be recommending they do the same.

I look forward, as always, to you following your work.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Welcome. If you're going to be inviting others, though, make sure they understand that there won't be any "calls" or even any trades. The purpose of it is to explain basic technical analysis, i.e., the study of and assessment of price movement (nearly everyone appears to have forgotten what technical analysis is, much less what "trading price" is all about since they generally ignore the behavioral aspect entirely).

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from d473n:

Awesome stuff DB, nice to see you posting again. Question though, wouldn't 9:55am area be a spot to exit your first long or scale out? If you had played it that way, when would you have entered long again? Soon after price bounced off 2903 or wait for price to make a HH?

Depends on your tactics. And whether or not you've dealt with any fear issues. If you were trading more than one contract, this movement would be a legitimate place to exit one. However, it's also legitimate to wait to see whether or not the last swing low is broken (it isn't). And since the selling wave (downmove) is the same length as the preceding buying wave (upmove), the situation at the bottom of that wave is essentially neutral, an inverted "V".

But if the trader freaks and exits, there's no reason not to re-enter immediately since price didn't do what was expected, i.e., fall. If he's still that tense and anxious, however, it's unlikely that he'll be in a position to do so. Better to just stop trading and go back to observing until he becomes rational again.

 

[Redneck]

DB

If my random musings veer off track too far…, or should you disagree with them – I trust you’ll tell me to shut up and sit down

==============================

Btw, I’m a stock-tard…. I trade one at a time, usually for a few to several months, then move on to another – within a relatively small basket (pool) I maintain

If this presents a problem – also say so - please
================================

Trading PA – imho

It as much about what price is doing, as it is about what price is not doing

Diagonal is as important, as the horizontal

At the end of the day – PA is people – and their actions – influenced by a multitude of emotions - intent - who the hell knows

My job is to read PA like a dime novel – exploit it – while never getting tied up in it (obviously the overriding is always to protect capital first.., make money second)

Buying and selling is a never ending continuum – interspersed with various events (pre/ post mkt.., the open/ close.., clearing of overnight orders…, lunch…, bond closing…, the fed…, news…, disasters…, fat fingers…, blah.. blah...blah)

TFs are not discrete, but rather very much the same - the TF(s) one chooses is not nearly as important, as choosing a/ the TF(s) that make the most sense to your eye/ risk/ goal/ makeup

======================

Testing the waters here… so if I'm too far off from where you are headed, please say so – I’ll sit down and shut up


Thanks
RN

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Redneck:

DB

If my random musings veer off track too far…, or should you disagree with them – I trust you’ll tell me to shut up and sit down

==============================

Btw, I’m a stock-tard…. I trade one at a time, usually for a few to several months, then move on to another – within a relatively small basket (pool) I maintain

If this presents a problem – also say so - please
================================

Trading PA – imho

It as much about what price is doing, as it is about what price is not doing

Diagonal is as important, as the horizontal

At the end of the day – PA is people – and their actions – influenced by a multitude of emotions - intent - who the hell knows

My job is to read PA like a dime novel – exploit it – while never getting tied up in it (obviously the overriding is always to protect capital first.., make money second)

Buying and selling is a never ending continuum – interspersed with various events (pre/ post mkt.., the open/ close.., clearing of overnight orders…, lunch…, bond closing…, the fed…, news…, disasters…, fat fingers…, blah.. blah...blah)

TFs are not discrete, but rather very much the same - the TF(s) one chooses is not nearly as important, as choosing a/ the TF(s) that make the most sense to your eye/ risk/ goal/ makeup

======================

Testing the waters here… so if I'm too far off from where you are headed, please say so – I’ll sit down and shut up


Thanks
RN

I have no problem with any of this at the level of detail you've provided, except perhaps with the reference to timeframe. Many/most people confuse timeframe with bar interval. The timeframe extends from this point to that point: a day, a month, five years. The bar interval has to do with how one elects to illustrate that timeframe, anything from a 1t chart to a yearly bar. So a 1m bar, for example, is not a timeframe; it's a bar interval. Of course, 1m can be a timeframe, but to what purpose? Trade for a minute then quit for the day?

And speaking of timeframes and bar intervals, many trader/investors say that anything less than a weekly chart is noise. Daytraders often say that anything less than a 5m bar interval is noise. There is no such thing as noise. It's "noise" only if one doesn't understand it (e.g., Stravinsky). It all counts, and one ignores it at his peril.

 

[Redneck]

Quote from dbphoenix:

I have no problem with any of this at the level of detail you've provided, except perhaps with the reference to timeframe. Many/most people confuse timeframe with bar interval. The timeframe extends from this point to that point: a day, a month, five years. The bar interval has to do with how one elects to illustrate that timeframe, anything from a 1t chart to a yearly bar. So a 1m bar, for example, is not a timeframe; it's a bar interval. Of course, 1m can be a timeframe, but to what purpose? Trade for a minute then quit for the day?

Never thought about it this way - makes sense

TF (point to point) vs bar interval (1m/ 5m/ monthly/ whatever)

Quote from dbphoenix:

And speaking of timeframes and bar intervals, many trader/investors say that anything less than a weekly chart is noise. Daytraders often say that anything less than a 5m bar interval is noise. There is no such thing as noise. It's "noise" only if one doesn't understand it (e.g., Stravinsky). It all counts, and one ignores it at his peril.

Yepper

Thanks
RN

 

[Redneck]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Trade for a minute then quit for the day?

Well.., if it turns out to be the right minute

RN

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from dbphoenix:

No, I won't be posting "calls", in real time or otherwise. I have no crystal ball. I'll be posting potential trades in advance, primarily to demonstrate the point of all the pre-trade planning, particularly with regard to context. But it's unlikely that these will meet the exacting requirements you've detailed in your threads. You've already stated -- on TL -- that this is all nonsense, and I doubt that anything I'll post here will change your mind.

Seems like you took offence to my comment.

I was just asking because this was the journal thread but it looked like you were posting some strategy stuff.

"Posting potential trades in advance" is close enough to real time calls.

And to be clear, I said the idea that Fibonaccis have any application to trading is nonsense. I never said predicting price was nonsense, and in fact stated numerous times that I cannot do it but am very interested in learning how to do it (since I believe that there are some people who can).

If one focuses his efforts on "looking for trades", he is unlikely to do much more than cover his expenses, if that. But if he spends enough time studying charts, preferably in real time or via replay, he may eventually develop an understanding of why and how price moves. He may then develop a sensitivity to when and where it's most likely to provide a tradeable opportunity. He will then be ready to "look for trades".

The market will tell one what to do if only he can set aside his ego and listen.

"looking for trades" is the same as "develop[ing]a senstivity to when and where it's most likely to provide a tradeable opportunity."

I don't understand why so many people feel the need to use different words to describe the same thing.

All trading is predicting. Playing the odds is predicting. If you think price is more likely to do something rather than something else, you are predicting.

When I average down into the S&P, I am predicting that eventually it will go back up. I don't know when, but I am predicting, guessing, betting, playing the odds, however you want to phrase it, that it will happen.

The only way trading is not predicting is if you use a random entry method for both entry location and direction.

People dislike hearing the word "predicting" to describe trading because it carries a sense of accountability.

You can "predict" and be wrong, but if you were just "playing the odds" it's somehow not as bad if you were wrong.

Of course, "gurus" will never be accountable for their trades (not saying you're a "guru," I don't even really know anything about you, just speaking in general that of all the "gurus" I've seen on the various forums, not a single one ever owned up to a losing trade but was full of excuses for why that trade didn't count, or why they didn't take it (after the fact, of course), when it met their system guidelines perfectly).

So back to my original comment, I am interested in this thread. Despite being unable to successfully predict market direction after years and years of trying, I am still interested in learning how, so a thread on trend channels that can be quantified is interesting to me.