If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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Hi Db,
Thanks for this thread and the many others you've sponsored.
I've decided to take the plunge and follow your prescribed instruction to observe the market with intent. Without looking for "setups" in real time.
Please find attached a chart of the FTSE from this morning and my observations. I made my commentary live as events unfolded and possible trades after.
I'll try and make similar observations of the NQ as time permits.
Would appreciate any comments form you or anyone else interested.
Context
The current daily and hourly trend channel is up and price is heading into multi year highs. At present price is at an important resistance/congestion area at 6600/6700.
Price meandered over night in the upper side of the daily range of the previous day. Sometimes hugging the top of the 6600 resistance level.
Observations
At the open buyers pushed price up all the way to 6600 with a small pause or congestion area on the way
1. On reaching 6600, sellers came in, broke the demand line and push price back down from 6600. However they were only able it push it down to the midpoint of the move up and to the mini congestion area of the up move. At this point buyers come back in and manage to push the price all the way back up past the previous high and 6600, just shy of the overnight high.
2. However sellers come back in force and push price down the whole length of the previous move up. But they hit mini support from the previous congestion and midpoint of the first up move. Buyers promptly move price back up for another test of 6600.
3. Price is pushed back up to 6600 and beyond, however it fails to make a HH. A mini hinge is then formed as buyers and sellers are unsure as to which way the next move is.
4. Buyers make another push again, making a HH and even pushing past the overnight high. There is no follow through on the part of buyers. A mini hinge forms again, a HL is made and the demand line is broken. Suggesting weakness on the part of buyers.
5. Price is now pushed down by sellers and accelerates rapidly, shoots passed the previous two supportive points and mini congestion. This seems to put the breaks on the move down and buyers push the price back. But buyers only manage to push it just shy of 50% of the move down and price stall here, making a series of lower lows, again suggesting weakness.
6. Weakness is confirmed by the breaking of the demand line and a push down out of the congestion.
After this price continues down through the midpoint and to the bottom of the previous day's range.
As far as entries are concerned I can see only three. They would be at point 1,4 and 6
Thanks for this thread and the many others you've sponsored.
I've decided to take the plunge and follow your prescribed instruction to observe the market with intent. Without looking for "setups" in real time.
Please find attached a chart of the FTSE from this morning and my observations. I made my commentary live as events unfolded and possible trades after.
I'll try and make similar observations of the NQ as time permits.
Would appreciate any comments form you or anyone else interested.
Context
The current daily and hourly trend channel is up and price is heading into multi year highs. At present price is at an important resistance/congestion area at 6600/6700.
Price meandered over night in the upper side of the daily range of the previous day. Sometimes hugging the top of the 6600 resistance level.
Observations
At the open buyers pushed price up all the way to 6600 with a small pause or congestion area on the way
1. On reaching 6600, sellers came in, broke the demand line and push price back down from 6600. However they were only able it push it down to the midpoint of the move up and to the mini congestion area of the up move. At this point buyers come back in and manage to push the price all the way back up past the previous high and 6600, just shy of the overnight high.
2. However sellers come back in force and push price down the whole length of the previous move up. But they hit mini support from the previous congestion and midpoint of the first up move. Buyers promptly move price back up for another test of 6600.
3. Price is pushed back up to 6600 and beyond, however it fails to make a HH. A mini hinge is then formed as buyers and sellers are unsure as to which way the next move is.
4. Buyers make another push again, making a HH and even pushing past the overnight high. There is no follow through on the part of buyers. A mini hinge forms again, a HL is made and the demand line is broken. Suggesting weakness on the part of buyers.
5. Price is now pushed down by sellers and accelerates rapidly, shoots passed the previous two supportive points and mini congestion. This seems to put the breaks on the move down and buyers push the price back. But buyers only manage to push it just shy of 50% of the move down and price stall here, making a series of lower lows, again suggesting weakness.
6. Weakness is confirmed by the breaking of the demand line and a push down out of the congestion.
After this price continues down through the midpoint and to the bottom of the previous day's range.
As far as entries are concerned I can see only three. They would be at point 1,4 and 6
This is good. However, I suggest you avoid looking for entries, particularly if you're going to do it in hindsight. Looking for entries in hindsight is fine in a very general way when backtesting, but the shortcomings of doing so will become clear when testing forward. Most people of course don't do any testing at all but prefer instead to just jump in and try to figure it all out while losing money. This is not a recipe for success. You appear to be on the right road so far.
Thanks Db,
I will avoid looking for entries and just observe what I see unfolding. Although its quite a hard psychological habit to break considering we were taught to look for "setups."
Could you give me a brief outline of the road map from here.? How long should I carry on this task.? Is this an evolutionary process or will moments of clarity start to appear?
If not looking for entries, should I be making some general hypothesize about the behaviour of traders and noting them down.?
I'll be reading through the Wyckoff course and all the threads on TL and here as I do this, and making notes.
Any additional thoughts would be appreciated.
I know there is a thing called "rollover." I went to the CME website, and it looks like rollover is today. Am I correct in assuming that I need to close my long NQ sept and tkae a position in NQ dec?
For day trading, is today the day I should start trading dec contract?
For day trading, is today the day I should start trading dec contract?
Thank you, both!
I find it awesome that fortydraws is doing well trading but is new enough to not know the details of rollover. This should give all newbies hope.
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