Yogi Berra said :In theory; theory and practice are the same; in practice they ain't"Imagine that you have the perfect trading system. With this system you ALWAYS buy at the EXACT low and sell at the EXACT high (and vice versa for short position).
The average yearly move of the British pound (GBP/USD) is 2000 pips.
The average daily move is 100 pips.
The long term trader will make 2000 pips a year with this perfect system.
The day trader, on the other hand, will make 100 x 250 (days) = 25 000 pips that same year with that same perfect system, more than 12 times more money.
This simple example should give you an idea of the profitability of day-trading systems (compared to long term trading), even at the intuitive level.
If you are a day trader with a persistent edge, are you a millionaire yet?
- Thread starter Blitzjoker
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except that such systems don't work because the return premia gets arb'd out over time. The only successful day traders out there supply liquidity during shocks and are great at doing that, but it's not a system that you described, and it is not an easy strategy to run. And most of those guys are barely at 7 digits over multi-decade trading careers. Day trading is not how to make a lot of money lol.Imagine that you have the perfect trading system. With this system you ALWAYS buy at the EXACT low and sell at the EXACT high (and vice versa for short position).
The average yearly move of the British pound (GBP/USD) is 2000 pips.
The average daily move is 100 pips.
The long term trader will make 2000 pips a year with this perfect system.
The day trader, on the other hand, will make 100 x 250 (days) = 25 000 pips that same year with that same perfect system, more than 12 times more money.
This simple example should give you an idea of the profitability of day-trading systems (compared to long term trading), even at the intuitive level.
Some people want to dream that 180% annually is a modest target for scalpers (LOL!!!!!!!) ...
I mean his perfect system captures the whole yearly range (2000 pips) in two trades (entry-exit), each year, regardless of high/low location, sorry for the mix up.
Ok, fair enough, let's try with a more "reasonable" number: your not so perfect system captures "only" 40% of the yearly range and "only" 40% of the intraday range.
The long-term system is now making 800 pips each year and the day-trading system is making 250 (days) times 40 pips = 10 000 pips per year.
And again, we notice that the day-trader is making 12.5 times more money than the long-term trader, using the same exact system.
Bottom line : all things being equal (same winning trading system) day-traders will always beat the crap out of long-term traders (also called "investors").
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What I notice is that the day trader has nothing but winning days.
These perfect traders with the perfect system are kind of like unicorns and big foot; you hear about them from time to time but no one has ever proven that they exist.
I have tried to find one. I googled successful day traders; Nada! There seem to be a few on YouTube but no one believes their story's. While I was looking I stumbled on this:
The long-term trader too, you did not notice?
He captures 40% of the yearly range every year.
in the first particle they say the top guys earn 40bps a day which is about 100percent/year. When you consider the capacity constraints, what’s the point even if you could earn that much consistently.
the article has high entertainment value.