If you are a day trader with a persistent edge, are you a millionaire yet?

deaddog said:
I no longer look at a stock and think it's overvalued and pass on a promising set-up based on what's in an annual report.
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Ya, I don't care too much about valuations.
Many think stock fundamentals is all about annual report type accounting numbers, that doesn't figure with me too much as I tend to trade speculative stocks, new issues, emerging companies, explorers.
 
longandshort said:
Anyway, I'm happy you have a style that works for you. But I think it's bad form to tell people that you can easily make money by looking at a 5 min chart and volume, click buy, and voila profits.
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I don't think I mentioned a 5 minute chart. I look at daily and weekly charts.
 
themickey said:
Ya, I don't care too much about valuations.
Many think stock fundamentals is all about annual report type accounting numbers, that doesn't figure with me too much as I tend to trade speculative stocks, new issues, emerging companies, explorers.
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Valuation is misunderstood by most market participants (even many fund managers/analysts). This is because the driver of multiples (valuation itself) is macro-driven (and most analysts, and many fund managers, are micro focused). You can't look at today's multiple and make a judgement on value -- it's like using charts to trade.
 
longandshort said:
Stop posting bullshit then. :thumbsup:

If after reading 400 books on trading, you’re still trying to trade 5 min candles, then what exactly is it that you have learned? You have an edge in predicting what the next 5 min print is? What is that source of edge? An indicator using time volume and price (everyone has access to this information, this is not an edge)?
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welcome to the dark side.
 
longandshort said:
so: 1) you're not day trading and 2) you are trading momentum. Have you compared the returns of a portfolio comprised of momentum stocks to your ex-post returns? If your ex-post returns of your PA is less than the beta, then you are not even able to effectively harvest the beta of momentum properly. If you do have a greater return than the beta of momentum, then we can discuss having an edge.
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https://collective2.com/details/128743489

https://collective2.com/details/133729006

https://collective2.com/details/117442067
 
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Blitzjoker said:
Semi-serious question. Assuming you are a day trader risking say 2% of capital on a trade, with perhaps an expected win on average of half that on each trade (quite conservative by some standards I have read about here), if you started today with a modest £1000 and could place just one trade a day on average and reinvest your gains you should have your million in about 700 days, or a bit under three years.

If this hasn’t happened yet (and, spoiler here, it hasn’t happened for me either) why do you think that is? Is it because

(i) you don’t follow your plan,

(ii) you are really unlucky,

(iii) you don’t scale up when you win, or (oh no)

(iv) you don’t actually have an edge?
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OP assumes 2% capital for each trade, and win half of that on avaerage.
So OP assumes day traders make 50% profit on each trade and never make losing trade. What a joke.
 
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