Quote from shortie:
no you missed #3 that #2 breakout will be actually a fakeout.
I think that you have understood the core of what I wrote. But there are some nuances and also some additions I want to add:
1. One does not initiate a long or short position based on the above alone.
You need the execution tools, which will time/calculate a minimum or maximum in price when that minimum happens.
In other words, the analysis of losers tells you where the reside, and the other tools are useful to nail tops and bottoms at small time scales.
2. Levels of losers are not always a horizontal lines in price-time charts. Those levels are curves ( and may contain jumps).
3. Next time watch where they sometimes open a market with a gap. Those gaps are well done by professionals, and I think they understand what I wrote above.