if we do have a bounce which sectors will lead?

Health care. People are fucking sick and dying from this meltdown every day. Didn't Congress put a mental health spending initiative
in the 700b bailout?
 
Tech will still offer the best (real) earnings out there and will benefit from any recovery in the EM first. In addition, I wonder how long this USD strength can last especially if the crisis is more or less resolved in the next month or two. Weaker USD will benefit tech the most.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Commodity producers, commodities, emerging markets, Japan. Basically the stuff that got hit hardest on the way down.
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For the sake of my long term investments, I want to believe this. But I'm not so sure that oil has overshot to the downside just enough. Wasn't the argument on the way up that the oil companies were still using $80 oil in their projections? IMO they haven't felt enough pain yet. I bought the tiniest bit of a position in ECA in case I'm wrong, but I think oil at some point will briefly go lower, $60 anyway. OPEC meeting is still far enough away that we have time to get down there before they can shut off the taps.

My inference of course is that oil will continue to lead the commodity parade.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Commodity producers, commodities, emerging markets, Japan. Basically the stuff that got hit hardest on the way down.
More...

agreed energy got hit so fucking hard it's not funny. Energy names in general will bounc back hardest that includes oil related stock, oil producers, maybe refiners, utilities maybe, solar, wind , ...
 
Historically, oil tends to go to obnoxious highs and then obnoxious lows. From the early 80s to the late 90s for example.

There is some support where it is right now, but if it goes lower then 40-50 dollars is possible. Maybe even lower down to 10-20 dollar range.

The only way to trade oil is jump on the trend. If it goes up, you buy. If it goes down, you sell. Simple.

Quote from LuckyGirl:

For the sake of my long term investments, I want to believe this. But I'm not so sure that oil has overshot to the downside just enough. Wasn't the argument on the way up that the oil companies were still using $80 oil in their projections? IMO they haven't felt enough pain yet. I bought the tiniest bit of a position in ECA in case I'm wrong, but I think oil at some point will briefly go lower, $60 anyway. OPEC meeting is still far enough away that we have time to get down there before they can shut off the taps.

My inference of course is that oil will continue to lead the commodity parade.
More...
 
financials will be used ... equity purchases in financials virtually puts a floor psychologically...the government doesn't bail on those positions...
 
How do we know what form the gov't help of banks will take? It could wipe out or severly dilute equity holders. Like fnm and aig. I'd look to other sectors.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Commodity producers, commodities, emerging markets, Japan. Basically the stuff that got hit hardest on the way down.
More...


Think I agree with this. In a garden variety selloff, one would look to stocks that had relative strength, but in a crash, you look to stocks that crashed the most for the big bounce.
 
Quote from chipmunk:

I can't quite figure out which sectors will lead this bounce (IF we have one)
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The car-repossession towtrucking sector

The pawn shop sector

The insurance-fraud sector

The controlled-substance distributing sector

Criminal enforcement and incarceration sector (this is a real one)

The gunshop/ammunition distributing sector

The political-corruption machinery sector

The public-entitlement for the unwashed masses sector

The shylock / alternative investment sector.


Invest wisely for bad times are a comin.
 
Quote from sho-tim:

Think I agree with this. In a garden variety selloff, one would look to stocks that had relative strength, but in a crash, you look to stocks that crashed the most for the big bounce.
More...

Like tech stocks back in the 2002?
 
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