If Wave and Gann Theories are just joke, why do we believe in other pattern?

[j2ee]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

Elliot wave principle is the back bone of my discretionary trading. I consider it a huge advantage.

My automated trend following systems are much less sophisticated, but trained on years of data. They are like insects compared to a ninja. But it takes years to become a master, while insects will take care of themselves.

So you can program elliot wave theory in your automated program? Do you use IB?

 

[Wide Tailz]

Quote from j2ee:

Seykota, may be the highest % return trader in the world

I think he was the best, before the markets changed in 2000 and again in 2008.

Even Bill Dunn (another trend follower with huge returns in his time) admitted to having to change his systems in after 2000 because the markets were not the same. I don't have the latest data, but Dunn's equity appears to be slightly above where it was in 2000.

Trivia question:

How were the markets different from 1980-1999, 2000-2007, and 2008 to present?

 

[Wide Tailz]

Quote from j2ee:

So you can program elliot wave theory in your automated program? Do you use IB?

If I did, I would have had a back test. But since my original point was about the opportunities lost to such limits, would it seem logical that I have automated something that can't be proven to work?

 

[j2ee]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I think he was the best, before the markets changed in 2000 and again in 2008.

Even Bill Dunn (another trend follower with huge returns in his time) admitted to having to change his systems in after 2000 because the markets were not the same. I don't have the latest data, but Dunn's equity appears to be slightly above where it was in 2000.

Trivia question:

How were the markets different from 1980-1999, 2000-2007, and 2008 to present?

I am in Asia and I look at asian future so my answer would be very different from yours. Bill Dunn says he uses trend follow system but no one knows what kind of theory does he apply or create.

 

[j2ee]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

If I did, I would have had a back test. But since my original point was about the opportunities lost to such limits, would it seem logical that I have automated something that can't be proven to work?

So you have an automated trading program which trade by itself, and youself uses wave theory to "check" if the program trades the same way as you predict? Once if the program is not at the right direction, just press "stop"?

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Mine could be automated, but I prefer to trade mine manually.

Quote from j2ee:

Do you have to use yourself to process and trade or your strategy can be 100% programming and become autotrade?

 

[j2ee]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Mine could be automated, but I prefer to trade mine manually.

Why not let the computer handle all the pressure?

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Because I prefer to execute the trades myself. Not only can I only blame myself if I make a mistake but it keeps my mind sharp to analyze and trade the mkts.

Quote from j2ee:

Why not let the computer handle all the pressure?

 

[logic_man]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I think he was the best, before the markets changed in 2000 and again in 2008.

Even Bill Dunn (another trend follower with huge returns in his time) admitted to having to change his systems in after 2000 because the markets were not the same. I don't have the latest data, but Dunn's equity appears to be slightly above where it was in 2000.

Trivia question:

How were the markets different from 1980-1999, 2000-2007, and 2008 to present?

Before we ask how the markets were different, isn't it necessary to identify what could possibly cause the markets to be different?

Markets fluctuate, regardless of the date.

The only known mechanisms for biological evolution are natural selection and random mutation. Since the market is not a biological organism, neither of those apply. Therefore, we need to identify either a different mechanism or say that the markets actually don't evolve.

I'd say there can be subtle differences in markets over time, but nothing beyond the superficial.

This is why I was saying in the other Elliott Wave thread that I don't even think there are such things as "impulse" waves vs. "corrective" waves because it postulates too much differentiation between one wave and another.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

That's been my experience so far.

Quote from logic_man:


I'd say there can be subtle differences in markets over time, but nothing beyond the superficial.