If USA defaults, stock market collapses 30%, GDP down 5%

[pattern39]

I don't see why the media makes such a big fuzz outta this event. If they want to scare people into selling before Aug 2. That won't work b/c ppl will buy back in after that date.

You scared them on March 2009. And that worked once.
You scared them in July 2010. And that worked for a second time.
You try to scare them in Aug 2011. It definitely won't work.

 

[AK100]

GDP is going to crater anyway, the game is over.

See this excellent post for reasons -

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=220511&perpage=6&pagenumber=2

 

[Random.Capital]

American voters will not accept austerity over default. The US will default on external obligations, or there will be blood in the streets.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from Random.Capital:

American voters will not accept austerity over default. The US will default on external obligations, or there will be blood in the streets.

Same as in Greece. Tit-sucking parasites will riot in the streets. Doesn't change the fact, "there ain't enough money for what what they want or expect".

Riots? Fine. We need 'em.

 

[shortie]

Quote from pattern39:

I don't see why the media makes such a big fuzz outta this event. If they want to scare people into selling before Aug 2. That won't work b/c ppl will buy back in after that date.

You scared them on March 2009. And that worked once.
You scared them in July 2010. And that worked for a second time.
You try to scare them in Aug 2011. It definitely won't work.

the fear will do its job every time

 

[toc]

Quote from Random.Capital:

American voters will not accept austerity over default. The US will default on external obligations, or there will be blood in the streets.

There is lots of grit in the American system and its population is much more sensible than any third world country.

There will be issues regarding bringing jobs from overseas and these will have to be met in practicality. What if one fine morning, American public says they will NOT buy anything with a label of 'Made in China'. It will really shut down the Chinese factories from humming and churning out low quality products.

Do not doubt the US ability to bounce back. It is the damn politicians that are causing the tension and financial trouble.

If debt ceiling is not raised then some sort of default will occur and resulting consequences will have to be faced in economy, stock markets and US dollar values. Housing Crash II will occur almost immediately. Long Recession or even Depression can come to reality in a fast change of pace.

 

[dtan1e]

it is probably a better thing if the ceiling is not raised else there is no commitment to fiscal responsibility

 

[Covertibility]

Just get rid of Medicare. If you're a responsible person who doesn't live at McDonald's, smoke, or work at a nuclear power plant, then you really won't need this program.

 

[shortie]

Quote from toc:

... What if one fine morning, American public says they will NOT buy anything with a label of 'Made in China'. ...

yeah, with the big $$ people make in this country they can really afford not to buy Chinese stuff.

 

[dtan1e]

Quote from shortie:

yeah, with the big $$ people make in this country they can really afford not to buy Chinese stuff.

hear about chinese bullet train? there's a reason they are cheap