If this was futures trading, does it look like I have a (+) expectancy?

+1. each trade is an independent event. The fact that 7/10 trades with the same setup were successful does not mean the setup has a 70% success rate. Douglas talks about the "just knowing" factor and I couldn't agree with him more. There's definitely a scientific element to trading but the thing that determines profitability is talent. Are you the Miguel Cabrera of trading? In other words, you need to have some inherent talent to succeed.

Quote from NoDoji:

If this was futures trading and you increase your size based on a "winning streak" (or a "losing streak", for that matter), any positive expectancy inherent in the remaining facets of the system will likely be erased.

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge (Mark Douglas, Trading In The Zone), making "streaks" irrelevant.
More...
 
Quote from asap:

hmmm looks like many dont know what expectancy is about.

say, in blackjack, if you're NOT counting cards, you've negative expectancy, while the house has positive expectancy.

if you're counting cards, then, you reverse the roles, thus the player reading cards has positive expectancy and the house has negative expectancy.

there's nothing else that can do to turn the odds around for the player than counting cards. obviously, no casino ever allow card counting, therefore, in normal circumstances, you always have negative expectancy in blackjack.

any betting system you use will never revert the negative expectancy, unless you'd be allowed to, for example, increase the bet geometrically every time you lose, until you finally win, but that's not allowed in any casino and even if it would, you'd have to have an infinite bankroll to play.

now, you can play blackjack lots of time without counting cards and still make money. why is that possible, if you have negative expectancy? well, it is because you got lucky.

so, you can make lots of money in a negative expectancy game or in a positive expectancy game. the main difference is while in a negative expectancy you only make money if you get lucky, in a positive expectancy game, you'll make money no matter what, it is a question of playing it enough times until the law of large numbers kicks in.

in trading, the above principles apply like a glove. find yourself a way of counting cards in trading, and you'll be long term winner no matter what happens in short term.
More...

I have played in Vegas.

I count cards.

The house "knows" I count cards.

Usually I use an ice bucket from my room.

If friends are with me I pass chips (silver dollars in my case) to them as theirs become exhausted.

As time passes, the house does several things:

1. very strong free drinks.

2. dealer changes (they get more frequent as well).

3. They ask me to dine in a location away from the tables at their expense.

It all seems fairly polite because I am a small fry.

One common occurance is the displeasure of other players at the table. Before the other players figure out to change tables (their usual idea) they speak to me about how I am wrecking their playing. The house does not like this going on.

30 or 40 years later, I noticed the BJ is played differently. they use multidecks, I didn't notice too much shuffling, and dealing is much faster. From counting, I guessed four decks were in use. I didn't notice that much had changed basically. I was slower due to lack of practice and probably my mind was slower as well.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

I have played in Vegas.

I count cards.

The house "knows" I count cards.

I would bet any amount of money that whoever the guy is who wrote this could not play with +EV in real time in any casino in Las Vegas.
There are computer programs that the casino uses to track a player's expected value given bet variation and hit stand decisions. Very effective software, it beats the disguises, cover plays, and other stuff +EV players do to conitnue to be able to play. It also takes the decision making process away from the pit boss when considering when to eject/blacklist a player. Most bosses are pretty stupid and have been known to ban a negative EV player due to a normal hot streak, while conversely allowing a solid professional player to continue simply because his equity curve wasn't all that flashy.

Using this type of software, I will escrow 110K, lay 11 to 10, that the moron who posted the above can not complete 1000 hands against a 4/6/8 deck shoe and show a positive expectancy of greater that .6%. Normal Vegas rules, split up to 4 times, double after split, dealer stays on all seventeens.

Don't know who this guy is, but we have been taking advantage of guys who talk and think like him for quite a long time.


I guess this was a dumb post, I don't know who this person is, he could substitute a ringer, et cetera. well, it was a fun idea though. :)
More...
 
Quote from FJMcC:

Quote from jack hershey:

I have played in Vegas.

I count cards.

The house "knows" I count cards.

I would bet any amount of money that whoever the guy is who wrote this could not play with +EV in real time in any casino in Las Vegas.
There are computer programs that the casino uses to track a player's expected value given bet variation and hit stand decisions. Very effective software, it beats the disguises, cover plays, and other stuff +EV players do to conitnue to be able to play. It also takes the decision making process away from the pit boss when considering when to eject/blacklist a player. Most bosses are pretty stupid and have been known to ban a negative EV player due to a normal hot streak, while conversely allowing a solid professional player to continue simply because his equity curve wasn't all that flashy.

Using this type of software, I will escrow 110K, lay 11 to 10, that the moron who posted the above can not complete 1000 hands against a 4/6/8 deck shoe and show a positive expectancy of greater that .6%. Normal Vegas rules, split up to 4 times, double after split, dealer stays on all seventeens.

Don't know who this guy is, but we have been taking advantage of guys who talk and think like him for quite a long time.


I guess this was a dumb post, I don't know who this person is, he could substitute a ringer, et cetera. well, it was a fun idea though. :)
More...

What is your estimated time elapse for a "hand"? How much time between hands? How long do you estimate a dealer change to take? What is the interval for shoe changes?

I average three dealer changes per 45 minutes, roughly.

Thanks for your interesting post.
More...
 
Since we are talking about Vegas, here is how to get a free drink and make some money.

Go to one of the casino bars, ask how much money, you have to put in the machine for a free drink. It was $ 10 last time I was there. Play a game with around 50% win percentage like black jack. I won, and got a free drink.
 
Quote from Fonzy66:

When I lose after upsizing, I half my size on the next bet. 2 losses in a row and I'm back to $5.

This is an arbitrary rule I enacted without technical research. Seems to work for me.
More...

This is called Martingale (similar)- it does not work, even if you stay conservative on bet sizes.
 
Quote from colonial dr:

This is called Martingale (similar)- it does not work, even if you stay conservative on bet sizes.
More...

Bet sizing defintely works. However, it is not based on winning or losing.


Reasonably, with unshuffled cards between hands, it is based on the favorability of the deck. "Bet the Dealer" explains this and the book also provites small "cheat sheet" type cards of more or less sophisticated strategies. "5's theory" is a very good starting point for gaining an understanding of bet sizing.

Someone offered a bet to me. It may have been too time consumming for me. The time to realize the bet proceeds were much slower than trading to make money.
 
Fonzy66 said:
Hi all

Sorry if this is not very related to trading, but I need opinions from traders so I'm posting here.

The attached picture shows my performance at the blackjack tables, plotted with Excel. Each dot represents my "P/L" at the end of each session.

This represents 4 months of cardplay and about 300 sessions.
Net balance is + $12,178

I use a default bet size of $5. And I increase it when I have a winning streak. The largest bet size was $250 on a very good streak.

Comments are welcome. I'm hoping to hear from experienced system testers.
More...

I beg to differ from the largely negative replies to the OP question.

As is known, at blackjack the expectancy varies with the composition of the cards in the deck (if I recall correctly my own studies as a kid, it's the ratio of sixies to figures and aces)

By increasing bet size when winning, the player may be exploiting the transitory positive expectancy phases that occur; basically using the outcomes to conduct discovery on the current expectancy, under the assumption that when one is winning it is because the odds are temporarily in his favor. So, like indirectly counting cards.

Having said that, the edge must be tiny and I suspect it's lower than cards counting.

-ras72
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top