If this was futures trading, does it look like I have a (+) expectancy?

Quote from CT10Gov:

Christ... we are talking about a biased coin toss (that you proposed)... again, you change the subject like a slippery flish.

Your views are right if we are talking about trading. It's wrong if we are talking about a biased coin toss.

Is this fair?
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well, you're starting to make some progress.

I'm not the one making the point. I'm the one asking the question.

again the question remains

"On a biased coin toss, can you enhance returns with bet sizing?"

The mathmaticians tell me no. But they don't bet their own money and hold back, just in case they are wrong.
 
And in a circle we go.

Okay okay, I get it, you are just asking questions.

I'm beginning to get the image that you are just a lonely old man wanting some company... some human contact. You don't care about the answers, you just want someone to reply to you - ET is like a nursing home social room for you.

I get it. I'll stop.

Quote from oldtime:

"On a biased coin toss, can you enhance returns with bet sizing?"

The mathmaticians tell me no. But they don't bet their own money and hold back, just in case they are wrong.
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Quote from CT10Gov:

And in a circle we go.

Okay okay, I get it, you are just asking questions.

I'm beginning to get the image that you are just a lonely old man wanting some company... some human contact. You don't care about the answers, you just want someone to reply to you - ET is like a nursing home social room for you.

I get it. I'll stop.
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ok, now you finally got it. I tried to tell you that, but you never listen.

why the hell else would I post on ET unless I was losing my ass in some eur.usd and just wanted to talk to someone? It's lonely down here.

But getting back to opie, the difference is between betting on a deck of cards and betting on a trader.

but in the meantime it's fun to talk about math

especially as to how it applies to traders
 
Quote from Visaria:

True story: I played online BJ last month. My balance went from £800 to £1400. I was flat betting £10 per hand and did approx 3000 hands.

Does this mean i have an edge?

Of course not, I was lucky!!! If i kept on playing, ultimately I would lose, guaranteed.
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at anyrate, getting back to the subject, I would say based on backtesting your system, the way to go would be play 3000 hands, and if you are up, quit

if you are down double up and play with 20 for another 3000 hands

continue and repeat until after 3000 hands you are finally up

then quit
 
Quote from oldtime:

the difference is, at the casino I am betting against math. In trading I am betting against you.
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This is not like a casino. This is investing money to get profit. If some one invest their money in fools' way, That person will lost their money. Do not think this is gambling. When you doing gambling, You do not know what is the result. But this trading, We think about future tradings and We guest it using data , experience , and wisdom.
 
Quote from Fonzy66:

I use a default bet size of $5. And I increase it when I have a winning streak. The largest bet size was $250 on a very good streak.
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There are no "streaks" in trading.

In Blackjack, you can sort of guess the odds based on cards that have previous been played before the deck is shuffled again. In other words, each hand is not independent.

In trading, every trade is independent. Just because the contract you are trading has done something does not mean it is more or less likely to do the same thing in the future. Every trade is independent. So increasing your bet while you are on a "streak" is risky. Trading is more like roulette than Blackjack.

At least that's my opinion.

You may have some system which gives you a better than 50% chance of winning and can adjust your position size accordingly.

Good luck!
 
Quote from CT10Gov:

What are you talking about? Who am I?

I think you are just really mad that it's clear you have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to technical subjects. So you resort to ad hominem attacks.

Why don't you point out why I'm wrong? My statements are factual and emperical. Yours are baseless.

Are AR(1)s forecastable because they are serially dependant? Show me why I'm wrong - rather just throwing around accusations?

Typically ET trash.
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You are incorrect.

we have no incentive to correct you.
 
This coming from a man who writes hundreds of pages of complete nonsense....

You've made my day, old man.

Quote from jack hershey:

You are incorrect.

we have no incentive to correct you.
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Quote from CT10Gov:

This coming from a man who writes hundreds of pages of complete nonsense....

You've made my day, old man.
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I have a positive expectation that you do not understand me.
 
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