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If this was futures trading, does it look like I have a (+) expectancy?
- Thread starter Fonzy66
- Start date
You can flip that coin for years and years, and all the experience in the world, the odds in your favor will never be more than 50/50, whereas in trading, in time, one learns how to trade and decrease losses, backtests and finds out what the median wins/losses are so as when to increase or decrease size. I would believe it to be impossible for me to increase bet size based on median for betting heads/tails.
Actually, I believe it is 49.5/49.5/1 as the one is when it lands on the edge.
Actually, I believe it is 49.5/49.5/1 as the one is when it lands on the edge.
Quote from Moderate:
are you doing a reverse dalembert?
if you are when you lose do u reset to $5? or go down by 1 bet size 45 40 35 30 ?
When I lose after upsizing, I half my size on the next bet. 2 losses in a row and I'm back to $5.
This is an arbitrary rule I enacted without technical research. Seems to work for me.
you're betting on a trend in negative expectency game.Quote from Fonzy66:
When I lose after upsizing, I half my size on the next bet. 2 losses in a row and I'm back to $5.
This is an arbitrary rule I enacted without technical research. Seems to work for me.
to make it more like futures, I would be betting on what I think you are going to do
Quote from NoDoji:
A (fair and balanced) coin toss isn't a positive expectancy system. It's 50/50. The distribution of heads and tails can be very random; you can, for example have quite a few heads in a row (a "winning streak") but the expectancy is still 50/50.
Sorry, NoDoji, you need to reread what i wrote. I said you win 2x your bet if it lands on heads, which makes the wager a positive expectation one.
It doesn't matter what the wager amount is, whether you increase or decrease after a win or not, it remains positive.
Quote from Visaria:I don't see why.Suppose i toss a coin where if heads comes up, i win 2x my bet but lose if tails comes up. A bet with positive expectation. I bet a few times, have a streak of 3 heads (winners) and decide to double my bet next time. I still have a positive expectation bet.
In this case bet size does not matter as every bet carries a positive expectation.
There is no way to achieve a positive expectation in BlackJack by varying bet size alone. If a player's game does not carry a positive expectation then increasing bet size either with winners or losers will not achieve a positive expectation.
The only way to achieve a positive expectation in BlackJack is by counting cards. It is true that while basic blackjack strategy will get a player very close to a positive expectation - it is still negative without some knowledge of the makeup of the remaining cards in the deck/shoe (achieved through counting) and nothing that you do with bet size will change that.
Jack
hmmm looks like many dont know what expectancy is about.
say, in blackjack, if you're NOT counting cards, you've negative expectancy, while the house has positive expectancy.
if you're counting cards, then, you reverse the roles, thus the player reading cards has positive expectancy and the house has negative expectancy.
there's nothing else that can do to turn the odds around for the player than counting cards. obviously, no casino ever allow card counting, therefore, in normal circumstances, you always have negative expectancy in blackjack.
any betting system you use will never revert the negative expectancy, unless you'd be allowed to, for example, increase the bet geometrically every time you lose, until you finally win, but that's not allowed in any casino and even if it would, you'd have to have an infinite bankroll to play.
now, you can play blackjack lots of time without counting cards and still make money. why is that possible, if you have negative expectancy? well, it is because you got lucky.
so, you can make lots of money in a negative expectancy game or in a positive expectancy game. the main difference is while in a negative expectancy you only make money if you get lucky, in a positive expectancy game, you'll make money no matter what, it is a question of playing it enough times until the law of large numbers kicks in.
in trading, the above principles apply like a glove. find yourself a way of counting cards in trading, and you'll be long term winner no matter what happens in short term.
say, in blackjack, if you're NOT counting cards, you've negative expectancy, while the house has positive expectancy.
if you're counting cards, then, you reverse the roles, thus the player reading cards has positive expectancy and the house has negative expectancy.
there's nothing else that can do to turn the odds around for the player than counting cards. obviously, no casino ever allow card counting, therefore, in normal circumstances, you always have negative expectancy in blackjack.
any betting system you use will never revert the negative expectancy, unless you'd be allowed to, for example, increase the bet geometrically every time you lose, until you finally win, but that's not allowed in any casino and even if it would, you'd have to have an infinite bankroll to play.
now, you can play blackjack lots of time without counting cards and still make money. why is that possible, if you have negative expectancy? well, it is because you got lucky.
so, you can make lots of money in a negative expectancy game or in a positive expectancy game. the main difference is while in a negative expectancy you only make money if you get lucky, in a positive expectancy game, you'll make money no matter what, it is a question of playing it enough times until the law of large numbers kicks in.
in trading, the above principles apply like a glove. find yourself a way of counting cards in trading, and you'll be long term winner no matter what happens in short term.