If this ‘relentless bid’ dries up, investors could face ‘gruesome nightmare’

[dozu888]

What r v doing here. Let’s make some money

 

[Specterx]

I believe in value as in relative value across different asset classes... 3.5 vs 6 is too big a gap to overlook.

but inside the equity class, 'value investing' in the traditional sense is long dead... any 3rd grader can come up with some valuation model that will perform just as well as Warren or Ben.

recent years / decades it's been proven that the successful model is to burn as much cash as possible to grab all the market share!

I think you're more right then the valuation bears, but equities do deserve a risk premium and right now we're within the historical range. SPX 5000 isn't in the cards, at least not soon.

Your last statement highlights what's likely to be the epicenter of the next downturn, whenever it arrives. A few companies hog all the profits while too many burn too much cash, whether VC capital or junk-bond proceeds.

 

[dozu888]

I think you're more right then the valuation bears, but equities do deserve a risk premium and right now we're within the historical range. SPX 5000 isn't in the cards, at least not soon.

Your last statement highlights what's likely to be the epicenter of the next downturn, whenever it arrives. A few companies hog all the profits while too many burn too much cash, whether VC capital or junk-bond proceeds.

actually 3.5 is being generous.... the 'Fed Model' uses the 10-year which is only 2.5 right now! huge gap at the moment 2.5 vs what 5.77 something on the SP earning..

yes there is a risk premium but the idea is that it's off set by the earnings growth.

in terms of the down turn - I hear your... never before had we seen such concentration of resources and wealth going to the tip of the pyramid.... but that is something we don't know and cannot control.

and for now, 2.5 vs 5.77 is such a big gap, going all-in is a no brainer.

 

[murray t turtle]

I believe in value as in relative value across different asset classes... 3.5 vs 6 is too big a gap to overlook.

but inside the equity class, 'value investing' in the traditional sense is long dead... any 3rd grader can come up with some valuation model that will perform just as well as Warren or Ben.

recent years / decades it's been proven that the successful model is to burn as much cash as possible to grab all the market share!

%% I seldom see 3-6% gaps, but when/if they do i may tighten stops on that LOL. TTD gap from $150-$200 may hold?? NOT in that one NOT a stock tip, not a3rd grade kid, not a prediction.,,

 

[pipeguy]

Just another asset class used as source of funds for the margin calls.

No margin call on the bullion under the mattress.

It has to burn many fingers of short-sighted, impatient guys before it can reward those who kept the bet on prudence

 

[destriero]

No margin call on the bullion under the mattress.

It has to burn many fingers of short-sighted, impatient guys before it can reward those who kept the bet on prudence

So you're stating that historical analogs (gold dropped during last two crashes) has nothing to do with the price of the gold in your mattress? Got it.

 

[pipeguy]

So you're stating that historical analogs (gold dropped during last two crashes) has nothing to do with the price of the gold in your mattress? Got it.

History is relevant, but only to some extent. Every crisis is unique and extrapolating two past drops to future is similar to saying that 3rd coin toss based on two past tails should be tail too. Faith in fiat, its power, was different then. Now even Central bankers see that marginal efficiency of every next QE is diminishing. Japanification of developed world if no proper revamp.

Next time we will crash into completely unknown pit, IMO and gold standard is a good point for digression before the next jump in development.