If this is Armageddon why are Chinese stocks only 12% off this year's highs?

[tsfx]

and this virus scare, the rates are going DOWN no?

Yep, everybody, which is why there's nowhere left to go if we look forward. Fiscal stimulus is the way forward. Plus the reality that there's actually an opportunity to shift from bonds to stocks due to their attractiveness. If that becomes the mainstream idea then stocks will perform but not nearly as well as in the last years and interest rates will gradually move higher losing the net earnings yield attractiveness.

I have explained extensively in my past posts why inflation is not going up. global trade is one.... cheap labors overseas. but automation and technology advancement is a bigger factor! and it's getting bigger!

we've had massive printing since 2009, but you look at where the money is going... we have the MAGA MSFT AAPL GOOG AMZN dominating the economy and it's only growing. the money flows quickly to the top of the wealth pyramid so you see people like bezos getting super rich while the lower income tier mass don't see any real income growth until recent Trump years they see a slight uptick. the CPI measures mostly everyday mass consumption items that's why you don't see inflation.

Inflation is down due to your named reasons PLUS the sheer fact that capital is being hoarded not spent. What if that capital comes out ? It will eventually. Rates aren't about inflation headline figure, that's a lagging indicator. Rates are all about money in the sidelines vs money deployed. You think central banks decide over interest rates ? Think again.

but, let's just say in the far future yields do tick up. first of all it's gonna kill the bond investors a lot more... secondly stocks are natural hedges as companies will just raise prices. say if inflation goes from 1% to 4%, historically more than half of that rise is hedged away simply by companies increased earnings from raising prices.

That is true. Bond investors will lose. But that can cause a series of new problems accumulated in the last decade. Sure stocks are natural hedges. It's just that Inflation will be higher than the earnings yield from stocks

Look, in the end there's series of possibilities of how things can unfold. It all depends on how the masses will start to behave. Least resistance will be the situation that is most overlooked. The past 5 year up move in US stocks were largely unanticipated, most were on the sidelines. If you get a lot of involvement then you'll see much more resistance in up moves.

 

[themickey]

The Chinese and their agents are shorting The US Market and trying to destroy us. Short selling needs to be banned temporarily.

One of their goals is drive down prices of commodity stocks so they can buyout companies.
Mining, farming, anything related to consumer staples.

 

[ironchef]

What if they could have stopped the spread, but kept information hidden to ensure that everyone else had the same problem.

Is that different? There is a reason Trumpy keeps calling it Chinese virus.

More like bureaucrats afraid of carrying bad news up the chain of command and be punished than a smart grand design by the Chinese leaders.

I believe the bureaucrats are well aware of history: In China those carried bad news to the emperor tended to lose their heads.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Anyone can explain?

It's a clue for those paying attention. I believe the crisis is overblown in terms of the corporate world and the recovery will be massive in nature at some point. Pick and choose quality stocks and you will do very well within 2 years. The yield on many good Canadian stocks destroys GICs.

 

[SunTrader]

Like I said, we have met the enemy and the enemy is us:

Federal law enforcement document reveals white supremacists discussed using coronavirus as a bioweapon

https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-...ing-coronavirus-as-a-bioweapon-212031308.html

 

[elt894]

I am not an expert BUT some preliminary research from India has been released showing that the virus has copied-pasted genome sequences from 3 different viruses. What are the chances of that happening naturally if true? Probably zero.

Now, the probability of them being wrong is probably high. And I wonder if it's true, why the US hasn't replicated such research. Or whether they have just kept it classified for now because if it's true, it's a catalyst for WW3.

Question zero: what are the chances this virus existed in nature?

Don't know the answer to that. But supposedly it's a very effective virus that came from China. A Chinese virus, perhaps.

Btw, it hit me today that the reason I might see new Chinese people around is they are all self quarantining and need to go for walks to avoid cabin fever.

See, not full on Alex Jones.

Here's a recent analysis showing the virus likely arose through evolution. If it's paywalled, there's also a good less technical summary here.

I work in genomics at one of the top US universities. I think the claims in the article I linked are a bit strongly worded (happy to elaborate), but I haven't seen anything to suggest it was engineered, nor is there any more evidence that it escaped from a Chinese lab than there is for the Chinese conspiracy theories that the US military planted it.

 

[Cuddles]

Here's a recent analysis showing the virus likely arose through evolution. If it's paywalled, there's also a good less technical summary here.

I work in genomics at one of the top US universities. I think the claims in the article I linked are a bit strongly worded (happy to elaborate), but I haven't seen anything to suggest it was engineered, nor is there any more evidence that it escaped from a Chinese lab than there is for the Chinese conspiracy theories that the US military planted it.

what are the odds a weapons lab could engineer a zoonotic virus made to "evolve" the right way to give the developer plausible deniability?

 

[They]

The Chinese and their agents are shorting The US Market and trying to destroy us. Short selling needs to be banned temporarily.

B1S2,

Its not called short selling anymore, its called "stock distancing" and it is a preventative measure in these uncertain times amongst wealthy politicians.

 

[They]

One of their goals is drive down prices of commodity stocks so they can buyout companies.
Mining, farming, anything related to consumer staples.

I didn't know that Warren Buffet and every hedge fund run by ex Military were Chinese too.

 

[elt894]

what are the odds a weapons lab could engineer a zoonotic virus made to "evolve" the right way to give the developer plausible deniability?

That's the scenario I had in mind when I said their conclusions were a bit too strong. Lab-directed evolution does exist, but it's quite unlikely for a number reasons I can think of off the top of my head.

The process itself is hit or miss depending on how many mutations are necessary and whether they individually confer a partial advantage or if they need to occur simultaneously.

You would do the work in lung cells growing in a dish, but that would only optimize for how effective the virus is at infecting that line of cells. Cell lines have many mutations that allow them to grow in a lab but make them behave quite differently from normal human cells. I'd expect the failure rate moving to actual humans would be high like it is for other drug development.

You also wouldn't be optimizing for how the immune system responds (which effects incubation time and mortality) or transmissibility. There's probably a fairly narrow acceptable range for these parameters. For example, Ebola's spread is limited by how quickly it acts and how lethal it is.

Ultimately you would need several rounds of human testing to get it right. They'd need to be large tests since you can't measure a 1-3% mortality rate with 10 people. I think South Korea is seeing <1% with more widespread testing, so you're probably talking tens of thousands of people across multiple rounds of tests with multiple virus candidates per round.

On top of all that, there still might be a signature in the genome that differs from natural evolution. I'd expect directed evolution to produce a smaller number of mutations with a relatively larger fraction of them being functional. In a natural environment with evolution occuring on a longer timescale, I'd expect a larger accumulation of "passenger" mutations that either have no effect or have some function specifically in the original host species but not humans.