If there was a trading technique that was 90-100% always positive, how much would you give to learn

minmike · Jul 30, 2015

Mtrader said:
Those who can do what you want to pay for, will never sell it for less than 10 years profit. So we speak about millions (or even billions if you would ask it Virtu). And even then they might refuse.

It is funny you mention Virtu. I have a friend who is a head hunter. He claimed that the guys at Virtu in conversation talked about just giving him their strategy. Said without the infrastructure and massive team, you would never make a dime with it.

zdreg · Jul 30, 2015

Jimmy Cook said:
Guys can you help me with this Question?
You see a huge spike on one of the charts in front of you and over the squawk .box comes the announcement Central Bank X has announced QE
Please describe how you would react to this news and what trade(s) ,if any , you would make and why ?

start your own thread.

Mtrader · Jul 30, 2015

Scataphagos said:
After all if there were such a thing as 90%, it would be eventually learned by the players and nobody would want to take the 10% side... and therefore, there would be no transactions.

Wrong.
if you take a losing trade, you don't know who the opponent was. Maybe it was Medallion, or some other fund that makes huge profits? So maybe you took the opposite side of them? If you would know in advance it would be one of them you might not take the trade, but you don't know. So maybe you were on the 10% side without even knowing it.
How can you know if your opponent is a high % loser or a high % winner? Because you would prefer to trade against a loser I suppose, not against a winner.

Scataphagos · Jul 30, 2015

Mtrader said:
Wrong.
if you take a losing trade, you don't know who the opponent was. Maybe it was Medallion, or some other fund that makes huge profits? So maybe you took the opposite side of them? If you would know in advance it would be one of them you might not take the trade, but you don't know. So maybe you were on the 10% side without even knowing it.
How can you know if your opponent is a high % loser or a high % winner? Because you would prefer to trade against a loser I suppose, not against a winner.

HOGWASH! Doesn't matter who the opposite party is. You bet one way, somebody else bets the opposite. At the time of the trade, both are convinced they are correct for doing so.... otherwise, they wouldn't take the trade.

d08 · Jul 30, 2015

sfbayarea said:
Just as the thread name says, I'm curious what the readers here think and how much one would be willing to pay to learn the techniques to be 90-100% always positive trader (essentially never or rarely have a losing trade). I've read some high frequency trading companies never have losing trades, there is something there within the patterns that these companies understand. Just curious at what lengths would folks here go do or pay to learn this? 20K? 50k? 100k? Or are these patterns something the companies are worth so much they would just about kill to prevent others from knowing them (reminds me of the movie "PI")? Sort of like having the technology to create artificial diamonds.

If it's 90-100% right then I know it's worthless as that's unrealistic to continue into the future.
And do you mean 90% win rate with average profits of 1%, 10% lose rate with average losses of 12% - that's more realistic.

trilogic · Jul 30, 2015

jonny1lot said:
I would pay $0 for the system as it does me no good. This is only one half of the coin. The other half of the coin is R:R ratio.

Now, if your question is, how much would I pay for a time machine to take me back to the early 80s, give me a seat on the floor of an active Chicago pit, and give me a good relationship with an institutional broker who would be willing to hit my bids and lift my offers all day long? I'd be willing to pay at least a couple million for that!

Nice! Agree couple ways to make money in the market, so called "customer business" front running, and giving the bid x ask spread and receiving the vig and lets not forget the outright size play, where you bet large have a couple good years and get "paid" then eventually blow up

Or collect fees as a "fund manager" just barley beating any known benchmark or better yet sub par performance relative to benchmarks of any sort but still getting the "fee's"

OddTrader · Jul 30, 2015

sfbayarea said:
Just as the thread name says, I'm curious what the readers here think and how much one would be willing to pay to learn the techniques to be 90-100% always positive trader (essentially never or rarely have a losing trade). I've read some high frequency trading companies never have losing trades, there is something there within the patterns that these companies understand. Just curious at what lengths would folks here go do or pay to learn this? 20K? 50k? 100k? Or are these patterns something the companies are worth so much they would just about kill to prevent others from knowing them (reminds me of the movie "PI")? Sort of like having the technology to create artificial diamonds.

We ETers here would start considering your offer when your trading's profit reaches beyond 3x to 6x of daily range daily every single day! Otherwise ...

minmike · Jul 30, 2015

Mtrader said:
Wrong.
if you take a losing trade, you don't know who the opponent was. Maybe it was Medallion, or some other fund that makes huge profits? So maybe you took the opposite side of them? If you would know in advance it would be one of them you might not take the trade, but you don't know. So maybe you were on the 10% side without even knowing it.
How can you know if your opponent is a high % loser or a high % winner? Because you would prefer to trade against a loser I suppose, not against a winner.

There used to be a strategy when CME would give you the contra brokerage house. You put a small order out. If it was a big firm on the other you side of the trade, you flipped immediately, and if it was a retail house you held it. Some guy blabbed and now the CME doesn't give that info any more.

lawrence-lugar · Jul 30, 2015

If it worked like a charm -- you wouldn't be selling it.
Why would you sell a machine that prints money

But to technically answer your question...if it made $1,000,000...then it's worth up to $999,999.99

kut2k2 · Jul 30, 2015

Scataphagos said:
HOGWASH! Doesn't matter who the opposite party is. You bet one way, somebody else bets the opposite. At the time of the trade, both are convinced they are correct for doing so.... otherwise, they wouldn't take the trade.

The fatal flaw in your argument is you're assuming trading is like ordinary betting. In a casino bet, each transaction is a complete event. But a transaction in trading is only half an event. The trade isn't complete until you have both an entrance and an exit.

The guy who takes the other side of your transaction isn't your competition. You may be entering a trade while he is exiting. Or vice versa. And even if you're both entering or both exiting, so what? IOW what are the odds that you are opposite the same party on both entrance and exit and that you both have the same information about the market but somehow came to opposite decisions on what to do? Microscopically small odds, I say