If the odds are 50/50 why do most people lose ?

ET is an amateur world. You would expect most coming here to lose and quit as losers.

Winning and making money in markets is focussed and driven by hard ambition. No offence to anyone but this is not the mettle of most ETers. They are day dreamers, not day traders.

Two things are usually not in evidence: a suitable temperament focussed for trading and a successful methodology to optimise your net gains from day trading which means utilizing the price gyrations of daily markets, open to close.
:)
 
Been battling and still battling some of the same issues as the OP.
Lots of valuable advice in this thread from the more experienced traders.

My take on this challenge:

The OP perceives the problem as not letting winners run.
Now it needs to be clearly defined:
When should winners run and what needs to be seen to exit? So there is clear criteria to evaluate plan-following against.

Once that part of the framework is clearly defined it becomes a matter of following it and possibly fine-tuning it.

Defining it might be the simple part, and following it no matter what might be the harder part. Especially when the stakes are increased and/or the market makes something surprising.
The emphasis needs to be on following the plan and not on winning or losing. Because imo you need to know that if you follow the exit-criteria you will come out ahead over time.

-ss
 
Quote from neveral0ne:

1.Lets face it, you are either right or wrong, things can go in your favor or against, only 2 directions where the market can go, but why is it that most people lose far more than 50% of the time? More like 85% positions are losers 15% are winners....

2. I checked back on my performance for the past 1 month (ninja trader account thing) and for 1 month I have 57% winners, 43% winners yet I am still negative overall in performance (inc. commissions)
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Answer to #1

Poor trading plan or trading without a trading plan

Answer to #2

Position Size Management because most traders assume in error that they should trade the same size for different types of market conditions or different types of price action (e.g. changing volatility).

Also, improving the exit strategy (maximizing profitable trades while minimizing losing trades)...just doing such a few times more each month can change your monthly performance from negative to positive.

To minimize losing trades...you must learn how to recognize the trade is a loser prior to allowing it's initial stop/loss protection to be hit and then exiting the position prior to the stop being reached.

Mark
 
Quote from wrbtrader:

To minimize losing trades...you must learn how to recognize the trade is a loser prior to allowing it's initial stop/loss protection to be hit and then exiting the position prior to the stop being reached.
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+1

It's your job to be in control of your position - do not let the market decide for you. React as soon as you see that your trade is not working out.

A
 
Quote from neveral0ne:

Sorry for the confusion, I trade currency futures ( 6B and 6E )

Well its not really fractional < i just wrote it down wrong,

Entry Short:
USD 1 May 14, 2010 S JUN 10 EURO CUR UNIT 1.24950

Exit:

USD 1 May 14, 2010 B JUN 10 EURO CUR UNIT 1.24770
Trade



and it droped to 1.23xxx

so instead of making 1,500$ today.. I made like 225$ .... coz PNL controled me when to get out...not the action P/A I need to work on this....
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I think there's a lot of good stuff in this thread....so I'll bring it back to the top of the list.

I'm not here to "split hairs" or "stir the shit" I just want to give {neveralone} a pat on the back!

I was also in the (6E) friday, we all know the "talking heads" were spewing out all week the euro would break the 25 handle by the end of the week. And the such and such low was "right there" and the (other) such and such low was also "right there"

My observation is this; Neveralone, was short from 2495 GREAT,,,I give you a pat on the back for (entering) the market on such "prime real estate" However, (when) did you enter? I trade the European session quite often, were you "there" when prices broke 25 (the first time)? If NOT,,,, then,, as I recall (I'm not at my trading station I'm traveling) you had to have been "before or after" the USA NEWS releases...

Before everyone comes after a piece of my fleshy backside,,,,I'll be the first to say TRUE the euro "didn't give a shit" about the news all week..... but, If you entered BEFORE the news and rode out 20+ or 30+ points of "heat",,,,,,,, I may have BAILED TOO!!!!

I "stand aside" during "the news"...... I "probably" got in when you got out..... My system put me in soon after the news and my target of 2360 was missed by 1 (*&%$# tic) on the first drop.... but I had plenty of time to buy it (in the sixties)..... Then, I went home.

I have a closet with bones in it.... some of my bones have "headlines" on them...... All I can do is "the best I can" at knowing the market I'm trading...

Good trading
<*)))><
 
Quote from stock777:

Got a better question.

Since most lose, how come 98% of the posts you see everywhere are winners?
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Because they are either fake, sim accounts, or people only post on days when they make money but not everyone posts when they lose.
 
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