Quote from peilthetraveler:
yeah...never in history has one of the most powerful countries in the world ever collapsed,right?
All dynasties (Eygptian, Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Ming,Viking, Ottoman, Spanish) have collapsed OR.......... (Spanish, Czarist Russia, Great Britan, French) a shell of what they once were.
But, collapse, or shall we term it decay, is a process, not an event.
We acquired reserve currency status to replace pound sterling in post WWII. That will eventually change (again)
Now, the REAL problem:
Picture two graphs.
One from the dawn of mankind (either Adam & Eve or Neandrethal your choice) to 1920. We'll call it 50,000 years.
The world amassed 1 billion in population over that span.
Hence you have a very very long "X" axis and a "Y" axis whose scale is 1 billion.
Now, graph #2. It would have only a 90 year "X" axis, but a "Y" axis that's 6 times higher than the scale of graph #1. Each dwarfs the other, but only in one plane.
That's the problem (or the root of a lot of problems).
90 years is just one, albeit long, lifetime
Furthermore, projections suggest a population of 9 billion around 2040.
Pit that against finite resources. Best case abundant but nevertheless FINITE.
Yes, yes, lumber is renewable. Corn has doubled yield per acre since about 1964. But requires fertilizer, rotation, and probable irrigation. Fertlizers are primarily, nitorgen, ammonia or potash. First two are petroleum-based. Hence all deplete. Well, we could use bone meal from all starved dead bodies, or a helluva lot of fish heads.
If you don't have plagues (Bubonic, Black, Spainish flu, Hong Kong flu) or wars to purge signficant numbers, you have a higher probability of famine.
In summary, shit hits the fan in about 30 years. Doesn't mean it's going to be a picnic between now and then. Doomsdayers have always existed. But, even a broken clock is "right" twice per day.