quote from angrycat:
I disagree with the person who said that only the strongest banks will survive this. Only the most politically connected banks will survive this and the banks who were actually very competitive and didn't take excessive risks will be thrown under the bus as credit and customers are siphoned from them to prop up political darlings like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.
I think this is most likely the case and the reason the government is so protective of the biggest players is that among them are the primary dealers who sell government debt. Our government exists today only because it is able to procure money to operate through the sale of bonds and other debt instruments. If they lose their dealers they are out of business because the only option then would be to go to the Fed and monetize the debt which would result in uncontrollable inflation in short order. They presently can borrow and defer the negative impact until the future when other politicians and bankers will have to figure out how to deal with the mess they have created, not to mention future generations of taxpayers who will ultimately have to pick up the tab. Obviously new dealers can be authorized if the present ones go under but it would create even more havoc than currently exists, so better to prop up insolvent giants now and avoid the possibility of other unexpected surprises.
Primary Dealer list from Fed Bank of NY
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_current.html
Some additional news on PD's
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...s/news?pid=20601103&sid=a3Fp3EwQX32o&refer=us