If Technical Analysis doesn’t work, how do you define a bull market?

themickey said:
Imo, TA for the majority is a use of indicators, there are myriads of indicators.
The majority are wrong, the majority talk nonsense, they lie, exagerate, boast, predict, flounder, make no money, amateurs, lack education.
However there are experienced traders who make money using TA but they are the exception. Imo experience gives them a sixth sense about how price ducks and weaves, they have found an edge and who knows what it is because every trader has unique tools.

A child can know no trading and hindsight guess a bear or bull market by looking at a chart to see which way its trending, but that child wouldn't know accurately if trend is changing or continuing.
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Most all trends are composed of two things. A BO and a Channel. These then are more often than not followed by a TR or some sort trading range price action. Different trading techniques are used for BO’s…. for channels….for TR.

The one key thing is inertia. The tendency of the market to keep doing what it is doing, at least for a while. There are signs when the market is phasing from a BO to a channel and from a channel to a trading range. Inertia shows up in a chart as the picture is being drawn.
 
volpri said:
Most all trends are composed of two things. A BO and a Channel. These then are more often than not followed by a TR or some sort trading range price action. Different trading techniques are used for BO’s…. for channels….for TR.

The one key thing is inertia. The tendency of the market to keep doing what it is doing, at least for a while. There are signs when the market is phasing from a BO to a channel and from a channel to a trading range. Inertia shows up in a chart as the picture is being drawn.
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Very true. "Inertia", a property of matter by which it continues in its existing state of rest or uniform motion in a straight line, unless that state is changed by an external force. Also, if you are day trading, you can also look at speed. Most people talk about price or volume, but very few actually see speed of movement of price in certain situations that can give you an edge by trading in the direction of the momentum.
 
Scataphagos said:
However you do need to guess what you are going to do about "counters"... you don't know how big they will be or how long they will last.... so you have to guess as to whether it will be correct to "ride it out" and hope it's short and shallow... or trade out and back in (perhaps) just in case it turns out to be much larger. That decision is always about 50-50 and there doesn't seem to be anything you can do to swing the odds more favorably.
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Good Morning Scataphagos,

I agree with you 1000% sir on this regarding guessing after the trade and dealing with counters. We may have an idea on profit expectations.

Question:

1. Would you agree that the only way to get good good at guessing and dealing with counters is experience with Price TA?

My answer is yes. Trading Price TA I believe takes screen time and practice because like you said in red, "there doesn't seem to be anything you can do to swing the odds more favorably."
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Good Morning Scataphagos,

I agree with you 1000% sir on this regarding guessing after the trade and dealing with counters. We may have an idea on profit expectations.

Question:

1. Would you agree that the only way to get good good at guessing and dealing with counters is experience with Price TA?

My answer is yes. Trading Price TA I believe takes screen time and practice because like you said in red, "there doesn't seem to be anything you can do to swing the odds more favorably."
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Experience doesn't seem to help. You can tell when the market starts into a counter, but you still can't know in advance whether it will be "short in time and shallow" or larger.
 
Scataphagos said:
Experience doesn't seem to help. You can tell when the market starts into a counter, but you still can't know in advance whether it will be "short in time and shallow" or larger.
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Thanks for responding Scataphagos,

That makes logical sense to me sir. Experience doesn't seem to help. We have to follow the price, right?

And like you said "That decision is always about 50-50 and there doesn't seem to be anything you can do to swing the odds more favorably." There is nothing we can do about that but accept it and deal with and stop searching to swing the odds in our favor above 50-50.

I believe you are correct sir.
 
oraclewizard77 said:
Very true. "Inertia", a property of matter by which it continues in its existing state of rest or uniform motion in a straight line, unless that state is changed by an external force. Also, if you are day trading, you can also look at speed. Most people talk about price or volume, but very few actually see speed of movement of price in certain situations that can give you an edge by trading in the direction of the momentum.
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As you say speed is very important too. That I see as the "market dynamics." Where price went is important but "how" it went there is nigh about as important as it is getting there.

Nevertheless, I use techniques for trading when it looks almost dead and grinding and I use different techniques when it is going "swoosh."
 
volpri said:
I use different techniques when it is going "swoosh."
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To be a good swoosh trader, it's most important you eat your Rice Krispies for breakfast as they go "snap crackle and pop".
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themickey said:
To be a good swoosh trader, it's most important you eat your Rice Krispies for breakfast as they go "snap crackle and pop".
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Snap, crackle, pop is exactly what every true blood scalper is looking for. He wants to here a crackle (setup bar) see snap (entry bar), enjoy a pop (move in his direction) and grab that rice!

I think you are finally getting a handle on scalping and perhaps understanding it a bit more. It is none other than the Rice Krispies trading strategy. Amazing how Kelloggs summed it up so clearly!

Just look at most any of my charts where trades were placed and you will see a lot of snap, crackle, pop ++++$$$$$ and a few soggy rice krispies that didn’t pop. High Win Rate you know….Lol
 
But technical analysis does work. It works very well at defining a bull market, which is just an uptrend. Trend is pattern No.1 in TA.

Everyone thinks the significant part of an uptrend is its break-out, and that this is the signal to buy immediately. In fact the powerful part of an uptrend is the trend, and this a signal to be not short. Its about being, not doing.
 
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